Member Info for xxnjr

Well done Richard (the CEO). Been sold for more than I was anticipating and it removes an annual cost of $10m/yr that was the price of keeping alive a project that was going nowhere in Tullow's hands. The buyer is a Kenyan company. Maybe they are 'politically connected'? Dunno! But one would expect all the roadblocks (including fiscal to make project economic) put in place by Kenya to suddenly vanish! Moral of the story; don't get over-exposed in dodgy regimes in East Africa.

Gogadget "Question is why wasn’t seismic survey done before the infill drilling campaign, who made that decision?"

A very good question. Whilst hindsight is a wonderful thing, it does look like the decision to not update the seismic at a cost of say $50m gross vs the cost of drilling 21 wells at a cost of $50m gross each on vintage seismic was fatally flawed. You'd have to presume Rahul made that decision which could partly explain why he was fired and also the reluctance to be fully open about existing production issues. Something that Richard has rectified. (well at least thats the way it appears from my perspective. Just IMO, could be wrong.)

Well it maybe depends on what the 4D seismic reveals. Could be good. Could be bad. Would investors be willing to put new money into new bonds without first seeing a new post 4D independent auditors reserve report? If no, then the "holistic" refinancing solution may drift into Q3/Q4 (assuming 2P reserves hold up.)

Too early to say. Current delay is not unusual.

Loon1962- "When do you think we will get some news on production?"

Haven't a clue. Petrocom are a bit random when it comes to releasing production data! Kosmos Energy will be reporting 1Q on 6th May which isn't too far away.

Another sunny day. Maybe the last one for a bit? Get outside and enjoy!

Who cares? Sells are buys. Buys are sells. Nobody knows. But aren't buys also a sell anyway? And vice versa? Such a lot of time wasted on "buys" "sells" "shorts closing" etc etc The only things that matters here are; market sentiment (Trump), the OP, the production numbers and a possible refinancing! Jubilee is back up and running by the way!

Hope not! $40 = $51.50 hedged would be a difficult outcome?, as for '25 "Forecast free cash flow of c.$100-200 million at $70-80/bbl, including c.$50m of overdue gas receipts in Ghana from 2024."

±$10 on OP = ±$100m FCF. FCF would be negative at $51.50 hedged. Debt would increase not reduce?

One issue not oft discussed is TEN. The only reason it's still in production is to pay off the finance lease on the FPSO as they would still have to pay the MODEC lease up to March 2027 even if it wasn't in production. TEN is a bit like US shale. Loses money below OP $60. So minus 8K bopd for TEN then 44K bopd effectively becomes 36K bopd in terms of being useful.

If oil stays $63, or goes even lower the risk of insolvency here is getting a bit more likely?

± 10% in the same day!

Err No Tman75! Didn't use the 'liar' word. Merely pointed out that that the 'low cost oil project' requires government deliverables in the form of tax concessions amongst other things to enable a possible FID. Why would it need a more favourable tax treatment? suggesting the existing tax arrangements preclude FID? Presumably because the numbers don't add up?

CDI already has a negative NPV. TEN probably has a negative NPV at todays oil price. Kenya requires tax concessions from Kenya.gov to make it economically feasible (despite the sacked CEO describing Kenya as a low cost oil project). The only thing that has any value is Jubilee.

Not only that but the US Nos. exclude Services. An area where US tends to dominate.

A certain well used phrase from John McEnroe's tennis playing career comes to mind!

It was about this "In 2009, the Ghanaian government expressed disapproval of Kosmos Energy's proposed sale of its stake in the Jubilee oil field to ExxonMobil, instead supporting the Ghana National Petroleum Company (GNPC) acquiring the assets. "

Don't worry it's not going to happen. "the failure to approve the proposed sale of our Ghanaian assets" has been in KOS 10K's for years. For example the exact same quote is in the 2016 10K.

Existing arrangements were minimal "The World Trade Organization says the EU's average tariff rate is 5.0%, while the Commission says the average tariff on goods traded between the EU and the U.S. is about 1% for both sides."

"OK, just a ramp ..... Could this stock market turmoil play into Tullow's hands, as it is likely to result in lower interest rates. This could help speed up the refinancing as you'd think lenders would be biting Tullow's hand off to get the refinancing done ASAP at a rate of around 10% before interest rates drop significantly."

Anton. Maybe but what about the outlook for oil prices? If the OP is going to be 'Lower for longer' as a result of global recession that may severely complicate a refinancing, as at $60 oil annual FCF diminishes to the point where debt pay back becomes marginal?

Goethe only down by £544K now.