Member Info for xxnjr

Thats just the $400m glencore facility. the rest is 10.25% but expires in 14 months.

Future cost of capital yet to be determined.....

Normally, yes.

Could go for $250m to $400M? as at y/end 2023 Gabon had 37M bblls commercial and based on

https://www.tullowoil.com/media/press-releases/tullow-agrees-us180-million-sale-assets-west-africa-panoro/

Reading between the lines perhaps this is indicative of an eventual potential refinancing at some point? TLW have probably had preliminary discussions on refinancing and feedback was "well yes, contingent on selling Gabon". If so then this is probably good news.

Last time round it took 4.5 months.

https://www.tullowoil.com/media/press-releases/board-changes-and-2020-guidance/

https://www.tullowoil.com/media/press-releases/appointment-rahul-dhir-ceo-tullow-oil-plc/

KOS SP weakness is probably due to 2 factors. Weak production in Ghana and continuing issues bringing BP operated GTA FLNG development on-line. That latter has suffered from various setbacks and is now about 18 months late due to poor performance by BP.

It doesn't seem like the talks between KOS and TLW were anything but exploratory. It looks like someone in Tullow (not hard to think of who!) was a bit leaky and as soon as that happened, or a few days after, KOS cancelled further talks. You never know, the "very very preliminary talks" could have just amounted to KOS+TLW being in the same room at the same time as a result of a pre-arranged meeting to agree the 2025 work schedule and one of the parties floated, or discussed the possibility of a potential merger. Anyway whatever happened is all in the past and of little consequence now as Kosmos have confirmed they are not coming back. I understand why people get distracted by this sort of stuff but maybe the only things that really matter here are (1) Production and (2) Refinancing?

Anton,

No I'm not slift whether thats an adjective that escapes me or a person!

The fundamental reason for the decline is quite simple. As RDhir has said, underlying decline rate (without drilling any wells or taking mitigating actions) on Jubilee is about 20% to 25%. Well they haven't been drilling wells recently and the mitigating actions like water injection (voidage replacement) have under performed. So it's hardly surprising there has been decline. There is a target for voidage replacement. They were under target for last 3 qtrs of 2024 (2Q 80%, 3Q 90%, 4Q 97%) as per last KOS presentation. Good news is that YTD to 24/Feb 2025 was better at 105%. In summary: basically underlying decline 20%. Stuff goes wrong. No recent wells drilled.

If that's what you think fair enough gogadget but you will be sorely disappointed when Petrocom publish the monthly numbers.

Gogadget, it's own data analysing tanker movements observed on MarineTraffic in realtime.

FWIW loadings suggest Jubilee is nowhere near 93K, 87K or even 80K. Jan/Feb looks more like similar (or a tad below) Dec levels and latest shipment yesterday suggests March kind 75K which with 6 days of shutdown is 25/31*75 = 60K. April will be 2/3rds of 75 = 60K. Assume May & June 74K.

Back of envelope for 2025/1H: (78+78+60+50 +74+74)/6 = 69K and that could be more than generous.

Last trading update didn't give field breakdown. Kos did (73K annual Jubilee). Meaning Jubilee would need to average 77K for 2H. Guidance seems sound to me (at this juncture) given sole new producer comes on sometime during 3Q. Depends when the rig arrives (now drilling 2nd well for Azule in Namibia) and if TLW drill a producer in one go, or batch drill top hole sections, bottom hole sections on both wells before bringing the producer on line.

Flav,

Kosmos on their last results call ruled out making another offer for Tullow. (Not that they made an offer in the first place)

Super,

"The only way of kicking Tlw out would be through a long legal battle."

Well I suppose that might depend on the status of the licenses. Does anybody know? It sounds like the licenses were extended. But was that an exploration license? Or a production license? I know we had 2 yrs of production under the Early Oil Pilot Scheme (EOPS) in Kenya but that isn't the same thing as a 25 yr production license which (correct me if I'm wrong) would usually be granted after FID? So if we are still in the exploration phase (which has been extended a number of times past expiry) then Tullow maybe on a sticky wicket if there is no further progress finding a farm in partner?

Maybe there are occasional fireside chats with Kenya.gov but at the moment there doesn't appear to be a farm in candidate to negotiate with. It's the sound of one handed clapping.

Wouldn't surprise if Argentina which they describe as "a legacy position" was dropped by Tullow soon. T are the operator of 3 blocks which were awarded in 2019. In 5 yrs they have been unable to find a partner to farm into Block MLO 122 (100%) and ditto for the other two blocks MLO 114 (40%) and MLO 119 (40%) where seismic up to 9000 km2 of 3D was shot in 2021. No progress since presumably as they cannot afford to drill at 40%. Wintershall/Pluspetro sitting pretty hoping for a Tullow exit and thanks for paying for 40% of the 3D?

Sadly (so far) and this is a very common theme with Tullow, there appears to have been zero interest in anyone farming into Tullow operated Argentina, Cote d'Ivoire or Kenya.....

You are overlooking the fact that millions of bonus share options were awarded to rahul despite the criteria assessments which measure bonus awards deteriorating every year of his employment. It seems major shareholders were unhappy with his performance and suggested he leave. I'm happy he left but I'm not happy he's keeping his options!

Disappointed to see RD still appears to be entitled to his volumous share options despite his rubbish performance. He appears to be on gardening leave and "working" from home as and when required.

"In accordance with section 430(2B) of the Companies Act 2006, the information

contained in this document will be made available on the Company’s website until

its next Directors’ Remuneration Report is made available."

Hmmmm. couldn't find the above. Appears well hidden. Good find Anton.

Anton,

Unless they can sell Kenya (a really big if) would have thought Gabon would be on the list. What else is there to sell?

Despite the issues Ghana is Tullow's highest quality asset. Jubilee has a relatively low breakeven price and produces the majority of operating cashflow. It wouldn't really make sense to sell it outright. Nobody knows the reality apart from insiders but its possible Kenya may not even happen.