Member Info for xxnjr

Tin hat time. Goethe has bought 150,000 more!

He's more interested in racing his cars these days!

For sure the idiot from Riyad behind that monstrosity of a mirage they are building in the dessert is in a wall of pain!

Jayroz OPEC made that decision yesterday (or the day before).

Oil at $65 obviously is a bit of a head wind but since Jubilee is shutdown for a turnaround todays OP doesn't matter. What will matter is the OP when the next cargo ships. Probably in about 20-25 days time?

OPEC is one reason OP is weak. "OPEC+ said it would bring back a lot more production than it originally planned, at 410,000 bpd instead of 135,000 bpd, to return in May, “in view of the continuing healthy market fundamentals and the positive market outlook.”

"I’ve never seen so much press and retweets on something related to Tullow for a very long time." Only responding to the never ending ramping of Kenya press repeats and Kenya tweet repeats which even you guys will have to admit have rather taken over this forum even though Kenya is perhaps the least likely upside event to come to fruition! The whole point of having a discussion forum is to discuss is it not? As it helps everyone to balance the risks against the opportunities.....

The risks would seem to be lengthening.

2023AR "Certain risks have increased since 31 December 2022, predominantly around farm-down and project financing. This has been partially offset by an increased equity interest in the project and changes in oil price assumptions."

2024AR "Certain risks have increased since 31 December 2023, predominantly around achieving a farm-down and receiving government approval for the FDP and the transfer of the additional 50% PI."

"who is going to invest if Tullow discover oil but are told they can’t exploit it."

That is not what has happened though, is it? Isn't it the other way around? Tullow have failed to demonstrate they have sufficient financial resources to develop the export by pipeline project on a stand alone basis. Despite 5 yrs or more of talks, Tullow (so far) have failed to deliver a farm in partner and as a result cannot move the project forwards. I don't see how Tullow's continual failure to get the project off the ground will affect other E&P's appetite to apply for new acreage if they think there is something of interest to chase. If there was suddenly $3.5bn of farm in offers or development cash on the table then Kenya.gov would wave it through.

Well that was the reason Total Energies and Africa Oil exited (despite what Tullow said about the matter at the time "for differing strategic reasons etc"). Tullow seem to be clinging on to the local development option

"Tullow continues to receive expressions of interest and non-binding offers from potential strategic partners and is in active discussions with multiple interested parties. Hence the recoverable amount based on risked NPV has been revised to $103.2 million and a further impairment of $145.4 million has been recognised in the year ended 31 December 2024.

Management has compared the remaining net book value of the Kenya project with the recoverable value under alternative development options, in case the farm-down based on the FDP is unsuccessful. The alternative development options support the recognition of the remaining net book value of the Kenya project and will be pursued if the current project development plan could not be progressed further."

Perhaps they will sell out for a nominal amount that reflect the commercial risks and realities of a potential project?

The article says "signalling deepening pessimism at the company over its prospects of advancing the Turkana oil project to commercial exploitation"

"I haven't seen any selling by directors or funds for a few years...."

True but if you've been fired, "let go" or just left the company of your own volition then maybe there is no longer a requirement to declare sales?

This is interesting. "Russian authorities have suddenly ordered a significant reduction of oil shipments from Kazakhstan to Europe and other markets that arrive to a marine export terminal near the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk via a key pipeline from Kazakhstan, operated by Caspian Pipeline Consortium.

The operator said in a statement Monday evening that, following inspections at the terminal held between 27 March and 31 March, authorities suspended oil loadings to tankers from two of the three floating buoys.

The operator said two legacy buoys — installed in 2001 when the pipeline went into operation — are affected by the prohibition, while a third buoy that was commissioned in 2014 was permitted to continue tanker loading operations.

The Russian bureau of marine shipping has also suspended its classification certificates for the first and second buoys, the operator added.

Supercooper OK sorry for that wording. The thing is the PSC itself is governed by various laws passed by Kenya'a parliament to govern the oil and gas industry. Thats were Tullow maybe trip up in the event there's no cash/farm in partner. Hence whatever Kenya deem to be non-compliant with respect to legislation.

Looking at it from Kenya's point of view why on earth would you issue a Production License to a company that cannot develop the resource?

Supercooper there are protections in the PSC. But since Tullow has no cash (and so far no partner of substance) the project falls at the first hurdle. No production license. Exploration license expires. The 'resources' revert to Kenya.

Anton,

Sorry don't understand the logic of your post. Why on earth would Kenya waste money buying an asset they could retain for zero cost in the event that a production license for Tullow is not forthcoming due to the latter's failure to comply with whatever Kenya deem to be compliable?

"Tullow is in discussions to respond to commercial and technical queries raised as part of the review. The Group expects a production licence to be granted once the reviews are completed."

That answers the point raised here recently. The blocks are still in the exploration phase which in itself has been given various extensions since the final term officially ended. In other words Tullow are in the last chance saloon. Given that one of Kenya's concerns was the financial capacity of Tullow to develop the project I'm not sure what can be said to allay those concerns.

There's a reason its called 'Artificial Intelligence'!

Uganda won't be on-line until 2026 at the earliest.