Member Info for Xenor

TheDogFarther, I'm not selling at this level. I expect the finance deal to go through. I have done my research on UKEF and the eligibility requirements and we certainly meet them, so I don't see why they would say no. It may be a binary play but the odds aren't 50/50. They're certainly stacked in our favour. But a lot of people are clearly unhappy and worried that the deal is going to fall through, hence the current share price.

Would I invest today knowing the current situation? I don't think so, I'd wait for the deal. I suspect a lot of people are on the sidelines here right now waiting for financial certainty before ploughing money in. There's also 13% shorts last I checked. This will rocket on news of a deal going through. The last share I was in like this where everything hinged on concluding delayed finance deal bagged following the finance RNS.

A quote from the article.

"Ten of the highest risk, highest reward stocks I’ve covered through 2023 are either about to rocket higher hailing the bull market of 2024 — or sink into obscurity and failure."

Sums it up perfectly. It's become a binary play. Normally I don't put a penny into such stocks, yet I find myself balls deep in one right now. I don't know if that's poor DD on my part or things have gone badly wrong here.

Admittedly this does look stronger than the last few times it was in the 17s.

It often does. I remember selling this in December 2022 at 24p to top up my HARL in the low 20s. Couldn't have been a bigger disaster. Not that holding this up to 44p and back down to 16p would have been much better, but I think I'd have been out in the 40s as my average was 22p back then.

Sharehead, I am not wishing for anything here. If it retreats back to low 16s I'll buy back. If not there are loads of other extremely undervalued stocks sitting at or near all time lows that will likely outperform CPI over the next six months.

I said a couple of weeks ago that this has become extremely predictable with the 16-17p trading range. Figured it was time to put my money where my keyboard is and took 17.42p yesterday. Time will tell whether it was a good move or not. So far the market has told me I sold too soon as I could have gotten a bit more this morning.

Shares always rise after I sell, 18p is now more likely than 16p to be fair. Guarantee if I held we'd be 16p by Friday. Let's see what happens.

I sold just before the bell. Will buy back in the low 16s next week.

i don't think they're meant to improve the share price. i appreciate them because it tells us what is going on at the company.

however with all focus on getting our finances sorted maybe now isn't the time to be spreading thinly on so many different projects. at this point they're having a negative effect on the share price because people think we're ******* money away on things that aren't a priority.

get finances sorted, break even and then look into new opportunities.

60% down since November's peak is quite impressive for any stock. Though at the same time it is 60% up since this time last year. Great if you bought at the bottom, terrible if you bought at the top. I bought at both ends.

Isn't there some FSS pre contract work to be done that's paying us 25m this year and next? Maybe there's a lot of people in Belfast working on that.

I would be surprised if we see 20p before 2025 at this rate other than traded away spikes. AIM is a dead market, even companies making a profit aren't moving. Forget shareholder value until we get off of AIM. Getting the company on a sound financial footing with the finance deal and breaking even is the priority until then.

I agree 100% Kaeren. We need to hear more on this 16 cruise contract and the power supply issues. Should that have even been mentioned in a BBC interview?

I'm getting increasingly frustrated with this company. Lots of positive noises being made from JW but not much actually happening. Or at the least not much happening that we investors can see. Behind the scenes I've no doubt JW is busy.

I get the impression that we aren't winning contracts because our finances still haven't been secured. It's a risk for potential clients doing their due diligence.

Finance and LOI need sorting then we can all relax a little. Everything else (apart from IM) is fluff in the meantime.

The lack of contracts signed has been my concern for about 6 months now. We keep hearing promises of contracts expected to be signed but they never materialise. We need to convert the LOI and Scilly bids to contracts to have any hope of hitting 2024 revenue guidance. Unless JW has something else behind the scenes to announce. There was mention in a BBC article of refitting 16 cruise ships.

I did find that bit interesting, that we may introduce the fast ferries without the LUF. Surely that means if the council were to award the contract to another company then we'd now have three different operators in this space?

As for the market, when I talk of adding value I'm assuming people on the sidelines who have sold out and taken us down to 11p. They will want finance sorted before they jump back in. Right now it's too high risk for some.

I hope if we win this contract it is after finance is sorted otherwise it will add zero value to the share price. The market is only interested in news on finance right now.

This is a good move however, I support both initiatives. Having our own tug will save a lot of money. The ferry bid sounds better than what the existing operator is proposing.

HZM is just yet another example of what a terrible market AIM is. There's been dozens of them over the last two year or two and most of us will have big losses somewhere on AIM. So many dog shares being ramped on Telegram and Twitter that suddenly implode.

HARL feels different as it is a larger company than most AIM companies and has an active and passionate CEO who wants the company to succeed. Only thing that is holding us back is the finance deal that has dragged on for 11 months now. Get that sorted in a favourable deal for the company and shareholders and sentiment will change quickly.

Try reading RNSs. We haven't been diluted since November last year when warrants were last exercised.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/HARL/exercise-of-warrants-issue-of-equity-wp5s7vlyutvzy0i.html

This mentions the share count being 173m. There are still warrants around that haven't been exercised but with the pathetic share price they may well expire without being exercised. I know Riverstone have 10m at 14.25p that expire March 2025.

In my experience CEO/CFO buys usually lead to a ramp and small spike in share price (5-10%) and then the share price is back where it started after a day or two. Nothing at all moves Capita. Even a half billion contract did nothing.

People whine when the directors don't buy and then they whine when they do.

Done absolutely nothing for the share price.