RE: The end game12 Oct 2023 00:08
@LWHL - "However, given you are confident that a deal will be reached, why worry?"
Because like most people here, I have been wrong before.
Rambler Metals Mining (RMM) nearly wiped me out. It was the share I mentioned earlier that bagged on a crucial financing deal getting signed. You know what happened a year later when time came to start paying that debt back? Financial difficulties RNS, followed by suspension a month later because it couldn't afford to pay the debt that it took on, then later liquidation and shareholders got nothing. The CEO was ramping the crap out of it in the months leading up to it all. Got out of that one at 10p (66% loss) after digesting the initial RNS and I got slated by the diehards for selling. People who were still saying the likes of "What a shame it got suspended, I was going to buy more" when the shares halted trading. I'm sure there are those types here as well who would ride this down to 1p and below if excrement did hit the fan
Luckily I shoved what I salvaged from that horror show into HARL at 6p back in October and I got my money back pretty quickly. Felt like a proper gambler there. I no longer have a 6p average here because I was busy averaging up in the 20s whilst the Telegram and Twitter traders were ramping the crap out of it and dumping at the same time. It was easy to believe at 50m market cap and 27p share price that with a 750m contract the share was still undervalued.
RMM taught me that no matter how good you think a stock is, no matter what research you've done or what the CEO says in an interview, no matter how many shares the directors buy, it all means little. Your research and DD could be wrong. The only security on the markets is the posted revenue and profit figures, and the ability to pay liabilities. I will never have 100% confidence in anything on the markets again because nothing is guaranteed.
It also highlights the importance of signing a good financial deal rather than rushing into a bad one. It wasn't the first company to fail over a bad finance deal, I remember 4D Pharma suffered a similar fate last year. So I totally get where JW is coming from when he says he would rather hold out for a better deal than just get a deal done to make the market happy.
I also agree with Broomtree (which is rare) that having a big government contract doesn't guarantee the company won't go bust before the contract starts. I'm sure Navantia would love to take on the whole contract themselves if it came to it. It would be an embarrassment for the government but this government embarrass themselves almost on a daily basis and are soon to be out of power.
So until we have that deal signed and on paper, I will continue to be concerned. Almost everyone I speak with is concerned. I may be confident we'll get the deal but that confidence is not 100% as nothing is guaranteed, and like a lot of people here I've a lot riding on this.