Member Info for Xenor

Don't see why we wouldn't be. When is the result announced?

I'm not sure what your final comment means either. Sold to buy in cheaper? Where? As for my final comment, that bit wasn't aimed at you specific, it's my own opinion as in - I'm holding and waiting.

Question the narrative all you want, it's good to. I just feel you and Dog should maybe get a room. 🙂

If there are two things on this board that are as regular as clockwork it is your "reality checks" and Dog's weekly "finance is in the bag".

It will come when it comes. I am no longer confident of seeing it this quarter given the current date but it's either sell at 12p or keep waiting. I still have no reason to believe in the disaster scenario so I will wait.

I also think this was originally part of the 200m.

Creating forecasts for a business like this is extremely difficult. You need to use some reasonable expectation that you will win more work, but if big contracts that make up your estimates don't materialise then you have a shortfall on your estimate.

It's not as simple as just using contracted figures as revenue estimates either, as that would have been around 80m before we won Sea Rose and the market would have been very unhappy with that.

JW needs to be more conservative with estimates. If he had said earlier this year that the 2024 forecast is 150m then we would have been happy with that, but now we have this expectation of 200m it's setting us up for disappointment if it is missed. I think the market would prefer to aim lower and exceed guidance rather than aim high and miss.

I can't believe I missed this line when I read the bid document last week. Not that I would have acted on it, I have been privately predicting a revenue miss since the H1 results as they were below expectations. I consider a miss within 10% to be acceptable but 20% miss would be much worse as once again shows how poor the forecasting is.

This is likely the reason for the drop yesterday, as that's when people started talking about it.

PS I am still on holiday but I'm keeping updated on things just not reading this board much. Currently on a bus and bored.

🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡

If we had lost 100m this year then we'd be bankrupt.

Hebridean9, considering the amount of debt IOSSC are proposing to take on alongside HARL as a competitor do you not think their share price might fall by more than 20% over the next year? As I'm sure we're all aware, debt is very unattractive right now for shareholders.

That said, I do believe their shareholders will turn it down, JW will come back with a higher offer and it will be accepted. When negotiating you never go in with your highest bid on the first attempt.

As for whether HARL can afford to buy the company, we aren't talking huge sums of money here. Any money that has come in from FSS or M55 could easily cover it.

i suspect jw is going to be ****ed that this document leaked to the local press. or maybe they are one of the shareholders. either way it was meant to be confidential.

The "This is Scilly" news publication for the Isles of Scilly have posted on Facebook the bid document for the purchase. I don't know how/why they have this information. Maybe it is publicly available somewhere. I'm not posting details here for now but if you have Facebook you can find it.

Finance must be a certainty at this point if JW is trying to spend the cash already. I'm not sure it's a good move given the debt we have already, but I guess it would mean we access the LUF and build the new ferries.

Yeah I've been wondering why nothing has come of this MOU yet. Then again HARL issued a similar MOU in 2019. That particular one did mention bidding for FSS together however, which was delivered on two years later. Guess things take time in these industries.

The finance deal will come when it comes. The market no longer believes anything JW or Arun say on this topic, hence the share price. I can't see it running into next year however. There's only so long we can be loss making with no finance deal and not run into problems. Eventually JW is forced to take a higher interest rate than he would like.

Stokey, adding new shares does not increase the market cap. Dilution means the current market cap gets divided by a larger number of shares and the share price falls to match.

I would rather not have HNWI if they get in at mates rates on the cheap after taking on none of the risk like we have.

I don't believe this is what Mello is about. It's an event for HNWI to meet companies and look for investment opportunities.

"Mello is an open community of serious and high net worth private investors. At Mello, we run investor events which bring together investors and quality listed companies. We aim to provide a warm feel and unique experience at our events. Mello is run by investors, for investors. "

Hopefully we have the finance deal by then so that we can provide a good case for investing in the company. Otherwise it will just fall on deaf ears like the interviews JW does.

I'm off on holiday on Friday for a couple of weeks. The finance RNS will drop whilst I'm away and not paying attention. I suspected this when Q4 was first announced as big news always seems to land around my holidays. Expecting a 1am RNS when I'm asleep.

CPI looks like a much better prospect now, and I say that as someone who sold too early. Unfortunately I have no cash to add, and I'm not selling anything to add because I find when I sell stocks they go on a run.

There is no moderation on this website. I have reported many a comment that breaks the rules and nothing is done. Stuff used to get deleted a couple of years ago but I can't remember the last time I saw a post removed for anything other than inside information.

That £137k trade is interesting. There couldn't have been that many people holding over 1m shares here. Maybe they had mote and that was the last of them. Someone clearly not happy about the finance deal dragging on.

Cry me a river, Shorteverything. Clue is in your name as to what your agenda is.

patience bubble. we won't hold a rise until finance is done. too many people crapping their pants the second ************* open their mouths.