Member Info for Xenor

How long do you think we will have to wait to get the result of the appeal? I can't imagine it will take 3.5 months like the original JR.

It has been clear for a while that these protestors are doing all they can to delay as much as possible. I suspect their next action will be to try delay the appeal date.

The ferries discussion starts around 49 minutes in.

Apparently they had 4 applications to the soft market test, 3 being comprehensive, 1 just design/build. The discussion then drags on a bit about government task and finish groups. It wasn't clear what the next steps are.

There's a near three hour video of a council meeting from today on the council's Facebook page but I'm struggling to find the time to go through it to see what was said about ferries.

B2025 for the next auction after getting zero bids in 2023. You'd think they would be fast tracking the next one to get things moving.

Bubble I am hoping for an update on Scilly before then. The council meeting is tomorrow.

Good news. I was expecting Q2 for this.

Does it have to be BAE or Babc0ck that buy HARL? Surely there are other companies in the UK smaller than those two that might see it as a good strategy. I don't know the sector well enough to say.

Valuing HARL is a minefield. We have around 1bn in the pipeline don't we? Then there's the assets such as the yards, we are getting 77m invested into the yards so all four combined must be worth a good amount. Add in IM and reduce by the amount of debt.

250m market cap in just over a year is the stuff of fantasy but it should be a lot higher than today. I'm more interested in the market cap when we reach the stated 500m revenue goal.

With the macro improving, inflation coming down fast and interest rates should follow from next year I can see a lot of new money entering the markets over the next year. Once we have finance sorted some of that has to land here. The AIM index is showing early signs that it may have bottomed on October 26th.

"For the more risk averse we are in a trading range between 9p and 17.25p so some (many?) will wait for 17.25p to be cleared before committing funds."

The more risk averse are waiting for finance to close before they dip in, not looking at charts. That said, it is highly likely the finance deal will clear 17.25p so no doubt it will fit within your lines.

So basically NGC want to appeal and have no consequences if they lose? They have already had their JR and chance to challenge the decision. The court has given their verdict. Anything else should be on them. We should sue them for lost opportunity cost if they lose.

I care. There are topups I did almost a year ago more than 50% down. That is an abysmal performance and has to be one of the worst on the market.

There are shorts, just no significant ones. IG trading platform shows 16% of users on there are shorting. That's from a sample size of 51-250. Somewhere between 8 and 40 accounts depending on the actual number. There are some people convinced the finance deal isn't going to happen, hence the constant posts and articles telling us we should all sell to help their trades.

I still believe there is more to it than a couple of bloggers deciding to open a short and write about it. This began as soon as we were named preferred bidder on FSS and arguably the company was in a worse state before that than afterwards. I have dabbled in blogging in the past (not finance related) and I know how common paid posts and promotions are.

Consuela working overtime this weekend. Do you get paid extra to talk this company down on a weekend?

JW stated on one of the investor calls that they have already been offered a deal and the company turned it down in favour of seeking the deal they talk about with sub 10% interest rate. If there was any danger in the company going bust then they would just accept the deal on offer and refinance again in a year or two when the company is in a better position.

The fact JW hasn't accepted that deal suggests the company's cashflow is currently ok, which is consistent with what the CEO is on record of saying in interviews. We made it to end of June on the small amount of revenue we pulled in during H1. It's a fair speculation that larger revenues like M55 and maybe even FSS have arrived so far in H2 providing good cash flow. JW is also on record saying the market will like the deal, so clearly he isn't working towards a deal that is going to wipe out shareholders. I expect some dilution in the form of warrants but nothing substantial.

All this talk of company running out of cash or UKEF not wanting to do business with us or the debt deal has taken a year is all nonsense spewed to support trades that have flipped from long to sell in the past couple of days. Have you lot not noticed by now that these conversations always begin the second the share price begins a downtrend? Never on the way up.

On the last point specifically - the one that a member of this forum apparently sold on, the finance was indeed mentioned 1 year ago. But this person clearly missed the news where it was stated the company would be seeking a much bigger finance package due to the FSS win. This meant extra DD which was not completed until late H1. With that new information I could accept a couple of delays, but this has gone on way too long now. It needs to be sorted asap or JW needs to tell us exactly what is causing the delay.

The company has clearly taken on a lot of debt and posted losses in efforts to gear up for the FSS contract. This was inevitable. Yet some people can't comprehend the idea because it's a big number. They always talk of 100m debt but never the 500m revenue we're on course to reach in a few years because it doesn't suit their agenda.

The company isn't releasing news to boost the share price, it's releasing nees to inform the market of what it is up to.

It's interesting that the share price started tanking as soon as that well crafted tweet appeared claiming the finance deal will fail. Trading really is quite easy in this market.

That said, I don't see why people need to scream and shout about selling. In my experience it is usually agenda driven. The negative posts tend to follow.

We literally had news a week and a half ago.

The troll is referring to that Twitter post from yesterday by the guy who was ramping the crap out of the share a couple of months ago.

Looks like ISSG plan to reduce the air service to the islands next year. That will push more people on to ferries.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cornwall-67348736

That's the thing... Banks look ahead. Despite the 3% rates a year ago the actual rates you'd get on mortgages and loans were a lot higher than that.

This is a five year deal, the banks will be factoring in where they see interest rates going over that time rather than the current. A year ago the banks had even less idea where they would peak.