Member Info for Xenor

Fair point. Maybe the controversial decision would be if the council is supporting this rather than an approach that uses the government funding as the private approach will result in higher ticket prices for residents of the islands.

I'm having the same concerns regarding the 200m revenue for next year. In the financial report there was mention of contracts that we expect to win in the coming months. This was likely one of those. I don't think all of the revenue from this would have come during the next financial year but it's a bit of a hit if so.

Poor article. Not a single mention of the controversial decision to build the ferry in Vietnam.

This government would never do a u-turn, never!

I agree with his stance but it's turning into an excrement show. Surely there's not much time left to get all of this sorted to hit the proposed build deadlines.

Si_Derman, clearly it wasn't developed overnight. He was likely working on this for a while as a plan B that was actioned when he found out the contract didn't go to us. Not so much a "sudden decision" as I put it, but it certainly came out of nowhere from our perspective.

All speculation at the end of the day. We only have scraps of factual information to go off from JW.

The Steamship company have awarded the contract to a company who will build the ships in Vietnam.

https://www.islesofscilly-travel.co.uk/2023/09/piriou/

This explains why JW suddenly decided to build and operate ferries. He no doubt knew this outcome a couple of weeks ago.

Those actions don't sound like those of a company who may be unhappy about late delivery of barges. Now that we've got the barge factory going I would hope we see further orders for barges when we complete these next year.

Tonyh1975, do you not think that 2m market cap would have been diluted further since then to cover operating costs between 2020 and now? The company needed an income source, JW came up with a plan.

As for "company needs to pay down the debt ASAP". What would be the point of the 200m loan they've spent all year trying to get if they did that? Debt isn't a terrible thing if it is managed well. Companies need debt to grow.

As much as I am leaning towards selling 70% or 100% of IM to reduce debt and interest owed, I disagree that the debt has to be paid ASAP. The new loan will be over five years and presumably paid down with the profits we generate from 2025 onwards.

Over the past year private investors seem to have become obsessed with the idea that a company cannot have any debt. Business doesn't work that way.

The world and gas supply has changed a lot since 2018. I think the real figure will be somewhere in between 40m and 120m. Gas prices aren't spiking as much as they did last year but they are still a fair bit higher than historical levels. 75m may be a more conservative estimate of its current value.

As if we'd bid for work that isn't profitable. The idiocy on here shows no bounds. As usual the 🤡 army are out now that sentiment has turned sour again. Predictable as the clock.

I would like to know what the delay is with finance. We were told late July that a finance deal was on the table but the deal wasn't good enough and waiting could save tens of millions. Fair argument by JW for waiting, but then why aren't we being offered a better deal? What's the hold up? Is it just a case of waiting for the slow wheels of government departments IE UKEF to finish their due diligence and approve a deal?

Hopefully he can gove us some more details next week as this finance deal has become a joke and I have zero confidence that it will be signed on any forecast that JW gives.

Would rather it drop a bit more at this point so that I can add some more shares to average down. I don't fancy paying 16.6 when it was recently 16.2.

There's no point countering people like JakNife. They will be back rephrasing what they said tomorrow, the day after and the day after etc until the share price reaches their short closure target.

This moron was missing from the board through August and early September until they closed their long after the JR. He's just one of those ramper doom monger traders that say anything to help their trade.

As for his points. JW stated in the last investor presentation that a finance deal was on the table but he didn't accept it because he wants a better one. Surely if UKEF had declined to guarantee the loan then we'd have been told about it by now. Even if they do decline, the fact we have an offer on the table shows it's not game over, just means a higher interest rate.

Sooner we get this finance sorted the sooner people like him bugger off and harass investors of a different share.

I agree with everything you just said Lottie. I'm very unhappy following these results, and it once again removes a bit of trust I have in JW. His forecasting is awful. We still haven't hit the 2022 guidance even with H1 2023 thrown on top. That's so far out it would be funny if people weren't sat on losses here. Bit like the finance that as you say has been repeatedly delayed. I no longer believe his forecasting and I suspect the market doesn't. The share price reacts after news rather than pricing in forecasts.

75m to make up in H2... 25m FSS, 20m M55. Where is the other 30m coming from?

Agreed. People can ramp up JRs, IM, contracts, H1 results, whatever all they like but until finance is sorted this share price will be stuck bobbing around the mid teens. Nothing else matters for sentiment/share price growth.

Once finance is sorted, the contracts we sign and IM might actually start being reflected in the share price.

Scaffman, that revenue was due 2022. I'm sure we had that same point at the end of December, maybe even me making it. So I'm rightfully disappointed at not seeing it on the H1 books given:

"As a result, management expects approximately £20m of revenues from the M55 contract to be deferred into H1 FY 2023"

Of course I accept that timescales slip, and the LinkedIn update on this contract yesterday was welcome given the news today, but it's frustrating. Every time sentiment turns positive and the share price makes a decent rise we get whacked with something like this. People who sold out at 18p must be laughing, getting back in now at 13p.

Si, the H1 results were lower than the market expected. Just last night I was predicting 60m based on reasonable assumptions. We didn't even hit the total of the deferred 2022 revenue.

I suspect primarily because the 20m M55 payment didn't arrive in H1. However given the milestone announced yesterday on LinkedIn I figure we will have that now? It also appears the FSS payment of 25m hasn't been received in full yet.

At the end of the day the main news that matters here is derisking the finances, and that keeps getting pushed back. I'm sure it will get signed off eventually but JW's repeated timescales on it that get missed don't help market sentiment towards it.

HarChris, I must have missed that bit on M55 revenue. Does that mean we didn't receive the deferred 20m in H1 from 2022? Might explain why revenue was 25m.

My prediction last night was wuite far away, and yet it seemed reasonable based on what we knew. Can only assume we haven't received any of the FSS payment yet (or very little).

Does that mean we're getting two M55 payments in 2023 since the 2022 payment was deferred? Or is the 2023 payment likely to be deferred into 2024 as a result of the initial delays?