Member Info for Xenor

From the December 30th trading update we know that 20m of M55 contract was deferred to H1 along with 8-10m cruise and ferry

We know 5m was recovered from the failed Saipem contract. It was mentioned in one of the LSE interviews.

So that's 33-35m just from that.

We know an FSS payment has been received. I don't know if that is the full 25m for this year or if it is divided over the year. Anyone know?

There will have been money come in from the completed Arnish (Greenland mine) contract and money for barges. Plus several other smaller cruise, ferry and fabrication contracts.

Based on all this I'm predicting at least 60m revenue for H1. That's more than double the whole of 2022. I'm not going to predict what it will do for the share price but I would imagine it will be positive.

On a more serious note on this topic, JW mentioned dividends in August last year.

"At turnover levels of £200 million and above, the Company would expect to be in a position to generate sufficient cashflow to initiate returns to shareholders."

However I don't believe this will still be the case. The extra costs brought on from FSS pushed break even from 2023 to 2024 so I imagine dividends will require a higher turnover as well. Maybe FY 2025?

Big question though is whether we actually want dividends or if the company should instead use the cash to pay down debt. Maybe a mix of both.

Yeah, you've got it all wrong. You seem obsessed with jam.

It's a good vote of confidence but I don't think it will stop those institutions who are selling from doing so. What it does do is give confidence to potential buyers. But why buy now when you can get cheaper when the selling stops?

In the April LSE presentation JWB said with a successful JR it could be worth into the triple digit millions.

It does seem that way. Nice £15.75k buy just went through though.

Jfk9, you still will get a multiple return on your investment if you have patience - which you must do having been here so long. It just so happens that the multiple will come from a variety of projects rather than just IM. It may even be more multiples than you originally envisioned when all comes through. Of course I don't know your average buy price, but I'm aware some of the long termers entered at much higher levels than seen today. Hopefully you averaged down last year when this hit 5p.

Besides you can't attribute the entire collapse of the share price over time to JW's pivot to shipbuilding. The macro outlook has been dreadful for the past few years since the pandemic and the majority of stocks on AIM have plummeted in the past couple of years. There's no guarantee InfraStrata wouldn't have plummeted as well, because clearly that 2018 shovel ready project isn't built yet. Investors get bored over the years without much progress.

It was inevitable that any infrastructure project would be held up in red tape by environmentalists for years. That's the nature of doing business in the UK and why we are falling further and further behind other countries like China. The mindset in this country for many years has been one of "not in my back yard" and the idea that it is better to ship gas and other resources half way around the world than develop our own because "it's not green!". The UK has been in a slow decline for decades because of this.

The tech transfer from Navantia and upgraded shipyards should mean we can hit the kind of margins JW has spoke about. A few years from now the shipyard side of the business should be pulling in more cash than a completed IM can.

IM has taken over a decade to get this far and generated zero income in the meantime, and been funded through huge placings. So if JW can create a profitable shipyard business in under 5 years with minimal dilution then he's surely done a good job.

People like JFK who invested for IM alone do their best to turn sentiment here sour and then wonder why the share price is underperforming.

The share price collapse over the past couple of days is at a faster rate than it had been falling recently, with no signs of even a temporary bounce. This suggests to me that the II selling this week is not the same one that has taken us from 20p to 18p. I suppose there could be several selling.

To be fair it's plummeting, could be 15s before lunch at this rate.

A lot of people who bought the IM rise were traders who sold at 18p then took out shorts pushing it down further.

We all know the debt and the pending finance deal are what is holding this back, along with the lack of II investment. Scilly ferry situation is a distraction. Until finance is signed it is just too high risk for most.

On IM I agree the market wants more detail. No doubt JW is busy behind the scenes on it but surely by now he has decided which of the three options the company plans to do with it.

NoFear, it is frustrating that not everyone has access to the same information to make financial decisions about investing. Data like what's on the Bloomberg terminals should be in the public domain and not locked behind a very expensive system.

Sadly I don't know how to value this company so it's difficult to say whether 17p represents good value, but it concerns me that IIs are willing to offload large numbers at this "bizarre level".

The company has been quite clear with its five year growth trajectory and appears to be on track. The big news for me will be fulfilling the 2023 guidance of 100-115m of revenue and the plans to break even in 2024.

I can forgive JW for not fulfilling the 2022 announcement of breaking even in 2023 as clearly the FSS contract win has increased our costs in the short term. But I can see why some may say that is "jam tomorrow". We'll see if the jam arrives at the end of the year.

The share price may start to price in fundamentals when finance is signed, we'll have to see.

NoFear, you're speaking with someone who has been in HARL since 5p, watched it hit 27p and then retreat back to 8p before bagging from there. The market is excrement in general and we're all lucky if we actually make any money. Anything that looks good ends up performing poorly whilst ramped up dog shares make people rich.

Agree it's a risk throwing the kitchen sink at 17p, but if it hits 15p the risk hasn't really changed has it? The only way this is going to change is some positive news from the company or the background II sellers stop panic offloading.

What's clear and has been clear for the past month is that one or more large holders are offloading in the background. I'm amazed we haven't had any TR-1s, but in my experience they can come weeks or months later or not at all.

It's in freefall and has been for the past month since results. We're all fools for just sitting watching it drip away each day. I'm currently trying to decide whether to whack a load of cash in here to average down and then get out when it bounces to 18p. Bit of a risk though as it just keeps going down. But it does have a tenancy to do 5% bounces every week or so.

There will be many more councils going bust as they continue to spend on unnecessary projects like speed bumps on every road, cycle lanes that never get used and handicapping major roads to increase pollution to try and justify bringing in ULEZ style taxes. And that's just the roads. No doubt similar wastage in other areas whilst they moan about being broke and not having enough for important services.

The six month chart is dreadful. Almost 60% down in that time. 150% rise to get back there.

Big question is how low is this going to go before it turns?