Member Info for Xenor

jw doesn't have a chance in hell of getting that ltip award this year unless he ****s out another fss size contract. even then i'd have doubts. that was written off on the last trading day of 2022.

Right, that makes sense Wyndrum. I don't see much downside if we lose the JR as JW has stated he has a baxkup plan to avoid further delay (who knows what that is). If he handles a loss well by telling us what happens next then it will limit any downside. I won't be covering my long with a short as I don't have the cash, nor does my broker allow shorting.

HarChris, surely if you're a trader then you'd want to get in or out before the herd depending on which way you're leaning.

It does seem likely that the recent increase in shorts is what is dragging the price down however. But I disagree with Broomtree's theory of shorting to cover a long. There's no benefit from being long and short at the same time. You may as well just be out at that point. Like betting on both teams to win a football match.

Is it just me or does every penny share board have people dreaming of takeovers? It's not gonna happen. We're all trapped in here until the company starts delivering or we eat our losses.

That is quite high compared to normal. Guessing some of the sells recently have gone short. Must be expecting us to lose the JR and price to drop.

Not sure whatvyou mean by covering though?

HARL themselves don't yet know if we've won it so there's no inside information causing people to sell. I see no cause for concern. Frustrating but it's a waiting game. I suspect some who bought in July are taking profits in case we lose the JR.

This is strength? God help us if we see weakness.

We're down 10% since news broke that the JR result is next week. Seems like a loss is being priced in.

I see the opposite, that JW is holding out until after the JR result because a win will get us a better deal. JW has stated he's in no rush to sign a deal.

HarChris, the "market" you speak of probably didn't even listen to the JR hearing back in May so they will be guessing.

Either the market is optimistic and rises before the result or the market is pessimistic and it rises after the result if/when we win it.

I'm not sure much of IM is baked into the current share price given we erased all gains from the FSS contract and it took the new 70m potential contract to get us out of those lows. So I estimate downside risk to be low even if we lose. At least from this level. If we do rise into the result then that rise will be erased in the event of a loss as those buyers will be here specifically for IM.

I'm still amazed it can drop 33% so quickly and not bounce at all. Or maybe the short lived push to 21p was the bounce. I fear 20p will be the new 30p from last year that it just couldn't break.

This is a safe longterm investment but at the same time I don't want my money doing nothing for the next year as that's a loss when taking inflation into account, nevermind the other opportunities in the markets. Any sniff of 20p and I will be cutting my position size.

Nothing is guaranteed, but after listening to the JR in May I think we stand a much higher chance of winning than losing. Hopefully JW wastes no time getting the ball rolling with whatever he plans to do with IM.

If he had any sense he would have taken low 18s entry this morning that he kept talking about for the past week. Instead he now wants 17p! The greedy bugger. Just as I predicted he would. Looks like he could miss out altogether now.

Davidbarnes66vir, Your point was that the debt is an existential crisis. It's not. JW would be panic signing the finance off if that were the case. Instead he's pretty relaxed about it and waiting for a better deal. I totally agree that restructuring the debt is vital, but it's certainly not a crisis!

I am also along the same thinking of Roly that JW is holding out for the JR result because success means our assets are worth a lot more and this will give us a more favourable finance deal.

I favour a farm out whilst keeping a stake, and yes perhaps pay off some of the test with the proceeds. I don't think that would do anything for us shareholders other than a temporary spike however so it's a tough one.

I would hardly call the debt an existential crisis though. I have noticed a common theme on a lot of boards on this website... It seems the shorters are succeeding in convincing lots of people that any company with debt is in an "existential crisis" as you put it and that the debt should be paid off as quickly as possible and at all costs. Debt isn't always a bad thing.

Loads of sells coming through now Nic, someone is listening.

I've been saying all week if it hits 18p AimMaster will want 17p. If it hits 17p he'll want 16p. He's just a board troll who has no intention of buying any shares no matter how low it goes.

The share price is already decimated Roly, I don't see it getting much worse if we don't win the case. JW has a backup plan ready to go if that happens, to avoid further delay.

It's being priced as if it is going bust. No one has confidence in the company and it is concerning that even in the low 18s people are willing to sell for a loss.

The most recent downtrend that started Friday afternoon after bouncing to 21.4p showed signs of flattening today. Will have to see how Friday's trading goes to confirm. I suspect a lot of PIs who bought for bounce trades sold to bring us back down here. I've kept mine as I see no justification for crystallising a loss at a 27 year low.