Member Info for wyndrum

Bella, is it not about time you took the blinkers off?

When there are vague statements I read that as they have nothing.

"The Board understands that the Heights Capital Bond ("HCB") liability remains a source of frustration for shareholders and is a significant factor in shaping shareholder sentiment. We continue to explore a number of possible alternatives." Reads to me: can't do anything about it.

"Throughout the year, we have been actively engaging with interested industry parties who align with our strategic vision and have the potential to bring complementary expertise and resources to the table. These discussions have focused on identifying collaborative opportunities to accelerate the development and commercialization of our pre|CISION® platform assets." reads to me: waffle followed by got nothing.

"Our team continues to explore a number of commercial opportunities. We continue to seek a partner for our lead asset FAP-Dox that is poised to enter Phase 2 in 1H 2026. " Reads to me: They got nothing

" and are more about ensuring Avacta can establish a sustainable, long-term financing strategy to realize the pipeline's potential." reads to me, they have not got any way of future funding sorted and the clock is ticking very quickly.

There was not a single positive DETAIL in that RNS. Just loads of waffle and constant pat on the backs being a "pure play therapeutics Co". BIG DEAL

Should be an interesting Q&A......

Ice, if you have not learnt yet how to read an RNS you should consider giving your portfolio to a professional.

Yeah, this is bad.....

Its is a game indeed.

Thats why I always stress that individual should have reason why they are buying now at this price (whatever the stock is), rather than wait a bit longer etc, what expectation of profitable price they would sell at and also what loss would trigger them to liquidate/crystalise the loss and over what expected time frame.

If you don't have a plan for potential loss against potential profit then you can't work out a risk reward and if there is no time element to it then that money might be working better elsewhere.

There all sorts of ways if the stock moves in your favour when and how much profit to take. (moving stop losses, selling a percentage of the stock at a percentage of the profit made etc etc) which is why there are often contradictory messages such as you read, there are just lots of ways to try and skin that particular cat.

The individual has to find one that works for them based both on their own experience as well as looking at other stocks historically and seeing what formula seems to work most often.

In trading its not about winning every trade, just winning more than you lose, so there will always be times when the "plan" may have restricted or reduced potential profit, but it has to be taken in the round overall. And if there is a trend where the individual could have tweaked their plan which would generate more profit overall, then going forward you make that adjustment.

Thats why emotion is such a huge problem for most PI's, its not at all easy to separate the greed and fear from the trade. Thats why you bet in amounts that simply make no difference to you should you lose.

Its far easier to trade profitable companies, the chance of losing everything is very small. (BA. and RR. 2 cases in point who just right now won't go down. Even companies like WOSG, may fluctuate but while the business model is sound then again the risk is diminished.

However all loss making companies run the risk of a catastrophic RNS landing and in fact the odds are more likely that will happen than the huge deal being revealed.

PI's like to think that their research is beyond what the market has at its disposal and therefore the market is effectively wrong.

Here, ICE, is a good example. He believes the market has this mispriced. However the market is completely right and will only agree with him when the Data supports the re-rate. ICE simply has more belief in the unknowns working in AVCT's favour. In other words he is prepared to take on bigger risk than the market currently. Time will tell but its not a right/wrong thing.

Roll up, roll up.

For what its worth D, I look at every buy/sell transaction in isolation.

If you sold at 30p and took what ever loss, then thats that. It has no bearing on buying back in at 35p say. It is fresh trade which will show a profit or loss when you close that position.

Otherwise the emotion of losing and or buying back in at a higher price can emotionally cause lost or missed opportunities.

The recovery thus far of the SP has been on the surprise news of the 2 NED joining. If the news tomorrow somehow confirms that that was an astute move then the SP should likely move forward. If however, the stock is still in a funding fug then it will likely fall back.

I think (for what thats worth!), that it is more likely to be positive than negative but with the lack of follow through on the SP and the delays it has just given me pause for thought. Who knows, but when do we ever?

Chris, you are looking at this from a SP view point.

AVCT have already raised whatever the balance is left (£25m?) and it is free money, why on earth would they raise the same money again?

If AVCT are going to raise enough money to complete P1b they probably need about £30m? If they want to really go it alone then its in excess of £100m and it would come through ND listing or some sort of deal but in any event the only people who pay this is shareholders.

If the company has an asset worth £200m and a company gives them £100m through a deal or whatever its effectively given away half of the company's value or 50% dilution. If any money comes in from outside current shareholders will suffer some form of dilution. All we are discussing here is when and how much and what degree of dilution, none of which we can know.

The only avenue for no further dilution near term would be a complete take over/buyout but given the amount of money needed to get it to market would be in excess of its current market cap, so I would not see a huge premium being paid.

I think most likely is they (us) keep buying short amounts of time until the data allows a much bigger premium to be taken over.

"especially if a financial deal was put on the table just as the audtors were closing out and it changed their whole outlook. "

But they said the delay was not affecting the cash outlook and that previosuly said sufficient cash to Q1 2026 so Why stress there is no change to the cash outlook if there is?

I don't think adds up.

This is a full year (prelim) TU year ending dec 2024. If a deal is available or just about to be then its nothing to do with the update and a separate RNS would be released.

For me its a head scratcher. (I guess the auditors could simply have spotted an error in their own work and just needed time to clear it up and it is wholly their fault and nothing to do with AVCt or AVCT's figures?)

Chris I don't care, but i was ASKED what my position was, so replied. I understand what I do is of no relevance or import to any here, but occasionally some want to know what my latest position here is.

I always respond with honesty and in good faith. The fact you don't believe that is very much up to you and nothing to do with me.

Gord, I was disappointed that the SP fell back, which suggested buying was not heavy or institutional or leaky.

Also the second delay is for me a head scratcher.

Certainly it could simply be the smallest of hiccups and of no significance or relevance, or then again it might?

By and large I always prefer to add to a position on a rising SP rather than a falling one. (Unless the stock itself is very toppy and then I will wait for retrace)

On AVCT there have been so many, many false dawns that I do have a bias to expect to be disappointed rather than pleasantly surprised, so when I perceive to be some less than positive signals I do look closely at my position.

I have rowed back by half on my initial purchase on the NED release to secure a modest 6% gain

You guys see it as flip flopping (which I get), I see it first and foremost as capital preservation. For all my trading I genuinely believe I gamble less than many here do. Nothing has ever been straight forward with AVCT, and they have never met a timescale (judge me in 6 months being the latest), or commercialised a single product, they have made woeful commercial decisions, so the historical mood music is poor with this one, but....but... if they crack it.....and in the meantime if I can screw some profit by trading it then all well and good.

NFT " And put his toe in with Alistair then in I think 2020 when he acquired a considerable position."

So what was it? a toe in or a considerable position. Are you a bit confused?

Oh... and by the way, how did that work out?

(I mean this is Mr Hughes we are talking about, who never apparently makes a mistake.....)

I am pretty sure (actually I know), that quite a few here got an erection like the eifle tower when he was involved in the LFT days too.

Anyway... all being well tomorrow all will be revealed however Thorn has made a good point in that if all the deals are already made in the background as many here have claimed for months, then why do you need him? If AVCT are waiting for the science to catch up then that would explain that there is currently either no funding in place for next year, or he has in fact been working on behalf of AVCT for much longer to secure said funding.

I think its easy to see both view points as possible scenarios. (Without the need to become hysterical about either of them)

Like I said its a niggle.

You lot do look for any excuse to over react.

I have already said that Mr Hughes coming on board looked to be a good positive move.

Nevertheless to push back accounts twice is not a positive.

I never said it would be "very bad news" . I just said that my experience is that when Fridays are picked as the day to release results it often coincides with a below market expectation.

So its niggling me. That's all, so calm down... (sorry, silly suggestion, that's not possible for you over wrought types here.)

Tricky one tomorrow.... Can't quite see what the problem was for not signing off the accounts. LD was not in that financial year so it would not affect the results. AVCT maintain that there was no implication to cash runway which was stated to go to Q1 2026 which covers this financial year.

My nagging thought is its being released on a Friday which is often the day bad/disappointing news is released as it gives the weekend breathing space to look more closely at poor results without the SP being under market pressure.

The upside (in my mind), is that they want to release some very initial positive data on the trial at the same time and are using the auditors as an excuse to tie in the potential good news/bad news story.

tricky call.. the chart says it needs to close ideally up at around 38p but certainly not to fall too far south of 34p

I Guess Kiwi, you would have to ask the BoD? It sure won't matter what Pi's think.

The key will be for ABDX to be, with some margin, cash flow positive so contracts and sales current and future, would mean that ABDX would be a going concern without further cash injections likely. That makes valuation much more straightforward for all concerned.

Then it comes down to how easy would ABDX fit into the new suitor, or the opportunistic buyer wanting to have a ready made, off the shelf company to compliment what they do already but allow a more turnkey offering (a bit like the strategy ABDX have been following on a smaller scale.)

Then for the cherry on top, with your eyes screwed as tightly shut as they can be, you wish as hard as you can that another company joins in and all of a sudden its a bidding war!

Realistically somewhere between 15-20p sounds about right to me. (Not that i have a clue!! :0))

This from the same account dated 23/02/2024:

"Not to mention the excitement with AVA3996 at the AACR.A whole "new " will be there, the only thing to worry about, is that one of majors will have made an offer of £5-6 , which by April will look far too cheap.IPO of Avacta therapeutics at a " proper " valuation is on the cards"

Certainly sounds like Hurst.

Looks ok on the chart to move up to 455-460p.

If it does and breaks up, that then we are off to 575p (imo dyor etc etc)

With a market cap of £13m this company with its ever growing tentacles, has the potential of a takeover not priced in at all.

Could (I think, should), be an interesting 6 months or so.

"Now think again about the delay"

I think I already highlighted that earlier.....

"This delay is a non-event"

we don't actually know that.

"There is no impact to Avacta's financial position and cash runway."

One wonders then what the auditors are having to do that has caused them to miss 2 deadlines.

Maybe it is the sale of Coris? perhaps that has been delayed? Or perhaps a deal was meant to be finalised by now and has been delayed?

It sounds to me that the results won't be great (but we know that i think), but they are quite historical so it really comes down to how the company will be funded going forward and I am guessing they want positive news to accompany the now old financial data, to reassure the market. In any event maybe the sign off delay, is a smoke screen for new news.

You could well be right Thorn, the mitigating fact in my guess is that Zeus were buying apparently from Jan-to April so I am making the leap that that is when Mh Hughes got involved, giving time for either a pretty solid plan or even a funded solution ready to be announced.

The market seems to be very comfortable sitting on its hands today which suggests no leaks.