Member Info for wyndrum

I don't know why Bauchsapt. (good name, by the way), but I think it will be by the end of this month or sooner.

The market cap is £23m now so what, £55m for 1p?

I think, and this is not so out there, but I expect news to propel and reinforce some quick movements. the market and RNS could have a game of leap frog over the coming days and weeks.

Anyway, its a gut thing from my pov, so dyor etc etc

Well, its poised... Closed at .41p right on the resistance level. Room in the RSI to go through it.

Next week from a short term pov will likely be, imo decisive.

It has to break through otherwise momentum will go and it will likely fall back.

The chart looks more likely to continue to go up than back, so the odds are still in our favour that it will be on the rise next week.

And if I can see it so can everyone else, so there could easily be a rush to get on board now.

Should be a fun week!

(Fingers crossed... )

Hi Van, Dunno... I guess its the MM's having no stock so had to un-stick a few sticky hands to get some orders filled?

Or it might be them just moving the Bid/Ask around to see what demand looks like for the HUGE week next week?

(I don't know next week will be huge, but you never know....)

Slow day and probably a few to come given every ones on hoiliday.....

Ah, you are all so virtuous with your trading.

Only ever posting bullish things about AVCT and telling you how much the shares will be worth in the (near) future and then quietly selling the stock, whereas nasty old me, tells you when I am selling and when I am buying (and why.)

You are quite the hypocrites and pretty spiteful with it. But thats ok because we are all here to make money even though you are selling shares in a company trying to cure cancer, while at the same time saying it will be bought out for billions at any moment and you would not want to be out of this when the RNS drops because you won't be able to buy back in........ How do you live with yourselves?

Hmm....

lets see what happens tomorrow

At heart! At heart!! to my core!

I don't day trade on stocks but I use TA to time entry and exit.

I did a dummy sale and got .39.66 so its pushing.

This as always can go 2 ways. The buyers keep buying at around these levels but there are plenty of sellers. Then, the buyers dry up having exhausted themselves (and their money) and then the sellers remaining have to drop their price further to sell and on the chart it looks like the "resistance" was not broken and the bears won.

The other scenario is that the sellers run out of ammo first and the buyers keft who still want to get in have to buy at a higher price and do so with the outcome of a higher SP.

Various patterns that these buys/sells make increase the odds of which direction will ultimately prevail. Both VR & Mickey see the higher SP move as the most likely. Also we have momentum on our side. given that the sharp recent moves have all been up it increases the odds that this will continue.

And that's how charts change (relatively quickly) because if for instance we get stuck here for a week or more and fail to go through the momentum starts to shift the other way and so the odds move more to a fall.

But right now its more likely up than down (imO)

That why you try not to get emotionally wedded to a share so that if things change you can react in time to either lock in profit or minimise loss.

If you are right mickey then we might see the bid/ask move back to the 40/41 spread to flush the sentiment out?

Fwiw imo this is all about galatica. (whatever they say).

Its production has been delayed, my guess is probably due to lack of cash. The better than expected reserves improve the long term viability of the company and it is essential to HE1 that it generates some income to help Rukwa develop.

I have always believed that an income form galatica underpins the SP (just at a much lower level than it was when it was around .8-1.0p) and although Helium prices have dropped, HE1 will benefit both ways once production starts, ie the SP will rise on rising Helium prices and obviously fall if it goes down.

It is soon to be a proper helium producer and that will be a game changer in how the market will value it. (imo dyor etc etc)

As you asked Della... :0)

I noticed that the HL BID ask was .38-.41

The it moved to .40-.41 but very quickly reverted back again. That was (imo) the MM's moving the sale price up to .4p to see what the reaction would be. Based on the quick move back to .38p suggested there were a lots of sales generated. Had it stuck and the bid/ask moved up to .40-.42 ot would have shown some buying strength.

The fact that it is pretty stable suggest its a game of who will blink first. The sellers ultimately have to hold their nerve and force the buyers to pay more.

And given buyers want the cheapest price and will want to drive the SP down they have the conflict that if they wait too long and a big buy order comes in forcing the MM's to raise the SP to get enough sellers to let go (say at .45p) then the (smaller) buyers on the sidelines have a very quick decision to make!

(or it could drip-drip up, but the result is the same, if the buyers feel they might miss out then they quickly jump on board causing the SP to move further up.)

The risk reward (ratio) newboy is about 10% loss (ie sell below .6p) and 50% gain (1.02p) giving a 5-1 RRR which anything above 3 is normally the minimum so 5 is pretty good.

Each to his own and all that

So maybe a floor has come in at .6p. Makes sense given the price of the raise and its over subscribed take up with a 10% premium to a sale price of .6p.

Anyway the short term downside looks limited given this should be a turning point in that it gives HE1 the time to get income from Galatica and to maybe get this mythical JV sorted out.

On balance the risk reward looks pretty good to me. immediate close above .7p would be confirmation but the first real target would be a close above 1.02p with then 1.2o being next so almost a doubling from here. And given the, at the time, expected raise was likely holding the price down it looks more likely than not that it will rise rather than fall below .6p to me (imo dyor etc)

Oh and finally, the market makers. Its unlikely much "manipulation" goes on. What does happen at significant prices such as this one is that they may move the prices around to see what the happens. So, push the bid to .42p If there are no buyers then they may think they don't need to hold much stock, and if they do have a bit too much may off load some to reduce their exposure.

Likewise they may move the selling price down to .39 to see if that causes a lot of sells. They will do this to adjust their expectations of where the market is likely to go so they can adjust their stock levels accordingly so as to make an orderly market which is actually their job.

Just for a bit of background for those that really don't think TA "works". What is happening now is that .41p for whatever reason has proved to be a sticking point.

So its at .41p and those that have sold previously can't sell again. (Some may have bought in back at .37 but with spreads and commission, probably not that many), so now those that want to buy are waiting to see if there are a hidden amount of sellers still to play their hand and are wondering if this is a bear trap?

Its a pschyological game played by crowds.

It's unlikely recent buyers that piled in a few days ago when we went to .47p will sell at a loss, so for newbies, if they want to get in they better not leave it too late or they could 10-15% more.

That greed and fear thing is huge.

I love this game!

Looks like round 2 (or 3 or 4) for the battle of .041p

Yesterdays fall to .37 was a retrace to a previous resting point, so not a resistance but a natural target for new buyers to come back in., it also helped the RSI to fall further to 60.48 leaving more room for rises above .41p without going into over bought territory again.

Although its impossible to say if it will ultimately break it or not, it is showing classic bull movement with sharp moves upward and retraces to go again, so this imo looks more likely than not to close above the now mystical .41p target. But (however much I try not to), that's also going to be influenced by my bias. (Dyor etc)

So pretty much a draw today between the bulls and the bears.

Clearly we had the upper hand but then ran out of steam and the spineless sellers took their profits and there were no buyers left in sufficient numbers to maintain the price above .41p.

But tomorrow is another day and we are in a better position since the last high of .39p last week or so, as the RSI was then 78.56 and now with a close fractionally higher at .40p, the RSI is 66.43

Here's a spin for you all: This is positive because although we failed (again) to breech .41p it shows that this is a tough resistance level. So when we do break through it it will be more explosive.

(What will happen is that at some stage there will be no sellers left to take profit around this number, so when a buyer want to buy at .38-.45p there will be nothing on offer so they will have to buy higher and the move will be sharper due to the lack of sellers in that price bracket. and that leads the way to the .60 plus range which is 50% above where we are now so plenty of incentive to get in at these levels while you can.)

Onwards and ever sideways....

Is my 22p target back in the frame? :0))

Odd hamster that 2 posts (mickey's and my reply thinking about Nvidia) were immediately removed?

Given these last 2 x design wins have confidentiality clauses, do these ever ware off or will we never know who got the ball rolling for CPX?

So we sit just above .41p

The mm's moved it further to see if that would draw in more buyers but instead it got sellers agitated now their targets were hit at this resitence level.

So, now we are here, let battle commence.