Member Info for wyndrum

Charts are just a graphical representation of the buys and sells and relationship. How that unfolds then "dictates" the most likely next move based on crowd psychology.

Its no different to an RNS dropping. People buy on the new news by estimating what impact it will have in the future on the current SP.

No one buys with the expectation the stock will fall in the future, whatever system they use.

But the key is the future. As it is ultimately unpredictable you make an (educated) guess on how events will most likely unfold.

Some think "research" is the way forward, (flawed imo, as you don't have anywhere near enough info to make an informed decision and the longer forward you look, the less you can know about new info emerging which makes LTH a riskier bet than is generally acknowledged in small companies too.)

"No reason for the long protracted falls in either imo"

fwiw in my experience there is always a reason.

PI's just might not know it yet.

Having its first look at 54p.

Looks likely to take out the recent 54p high soon, maybe tomorrow. 60p is the new target I think as 54p has created a new albeit minor resistance level. (60p is a 20% increase from here, so worth trading for many) imo dyor etc

In which case Burgeseb, another bidder will enter the fray

Burgeseb, you only read one side of the ledger.

There are overheads and liabilities to running a business as well.

Clearly they think at 30p a share its worth it, but as I say there are 2 sides to the coin.

I think the word "value" means different things to different people.

In this case of this company being bought, the buyer wants to extract maximum "value", That has less to do with the accounts than some seem to believe.

The accounts are backward looking. the value will be what profits in the future are likely.

Once you are talking about future revenue/profit it then becomes a matter of opinion.

For instance had Wood known about the accounts debacle they would have sold at 230p-270p. So even the company itself could not predict the future.

You buy a house at auction thats been repossed. it needs work doing to it. It has more value to a builder than a non-builder as they can reduce the cost of repair, so when they come to sell it there will be greater value/profit.

Where will the property market be in 6 months or a year?

Part of the "valuation" is to do with risk and long(er) term planning.

As PI's we have no idea about any of it. We just buy our ticket, thinking we have done our own DD and know better than those who are selling so we can buy.

Its a crap shoot and while I can't offer a solution to it (other than not to over commit), we can at least recognise the fact that we are going in pretty much blind and therefore to temper both our expectations of returns and our ego's for the odd time the roulette ball falls on our number!

My take Barry, from a TA perspective is that if .41p holds the next target would be in to mid .60's. When? Don't know but I imagine there will new news as a catalyst for a new move up.

D, maybe a reason is that Sid, have spent enough time and money on this acquisition. They have already earmarked more money for it once they have secured the company and need to start getting a return on their outlay as soon as poss?

Glow, if another bid was coming in it would have been on the go already i think. The fact that it hasn't might also be a factor in why the current bid has been lowered to 30p?

I have no real experience to know how II's deal with BoD's in this situation.

However trying to use a bit of logic:

I assume BoD will have had meetings with II's. Ergo the II's know the state of affairs. If the BoD are ready to accept a lower offer it looks like the accounts are in fact worse than at first expected. It also means if the II's were not happy they would have instructed the BoD not to accept the offer.

So given how long this has been going on I would say the II's are on the same page, as there would have been plenty of time to instruct the BoD to reject the offer at 35p let along 30p. (Why waste all this time time with Sid if the offer is to be rejected by the II's. Sid will have been talking to them as well I imagine if there had been a "problem" with the II's potentially rejecting the deal.)

Also if the II's either themselves or through the BoD had made a rejection likely, then the SP would rise when the shares were back to being traded and the II's would get more money. The fact that none of this has happened suggests to me, it is more likely the II's are on board with this offer.

As always, PI's don't have the full picture so we have to look at actions to try and discern whats likely going on.

I imagine for the sums of money at stake, the interested parties all know exactly whats in the accounts and maybe whats coming down the road too.

To think anyone involved in the actual deal is guessing or gambling on what might be being kept secret does not make any sense to me.

I can see no reason why there would be any smoke and mirrors about this. Even if the BoD are useless, its too late now, it would seem the damage is done. If there is this fantastic business that just needs to carry on with some change then it would have happened. If the II's were that confident in a new set of directors to turn the business around then it too would have happened.

Or it could even be the II's are not that fussed? It gets written off against profits elsewhere? In any event I don't see conspiracy and collusion in any of this, just another example when PI's realise the risk they take when investing in stocks after the event and it dawns on them they know sweet FA what goes on behind the scenes in their "investments".

Avcti, shame my last post contradicting your stupid analysis was removed.

I have traded this stock very successfully over the years so I don;'t think its quite as random as you seem to comfort yourself with.

Yet anoyther poster who airbrushes the past of AVCT out of their opinions.

Were you as confident in the future of AVCT's LFT at the time. (I ask because that was also the beneficiary of fantastic test results and data and interviews and tie-ups and new positions created and filled etc etc etc etc.

Your arrogance is a joy to behold in your belief of what you have been told with the dismissive insults to those who actually called it right in the past.

Avcti I shall generously not refer to you as a Nut job, (how polite you were....) but TA is predictive on the odds of something happening based on crowd psychology. It is not definitive. How could it be?

Try to think of it in the same way there are professional poker players. They see what they hold, they see the cards exposed and then they can calculate the odds of someone else having a better or lesser hand than them and bet accordingly. They don't win every hand but they win more than they lose and when the odds are really in their favour they bet the house!

I hope that clears it up for you and I hope you no longer think I am mentally disabled for realising I have never believed I can predict the future.

Hurst why are you obsessed with the SP predictions?

No one knows the future.

I can't even assess what the value of the company might be in 12 months or 5 years? The amount of unklnowns makes any of this just guess work.

Charts will only indicate whats most likely (at times) based on short time frames, so they don't attempt or pretend to be difinitive either.

You are very strange imo, apart from this fixation of asking odd questions, making up whose buying and selling with zero evidence and forever telling this BB about developments and companies that have nothing to do with AVCT.

Every one is on holiday incl. the city.

It will start again in earnest in early sept. (short of any new news breaking)

Have fun D! (Im off to the Old Baily, for a Tour I hasten to add, followed by a late lunch

Good Luck!

DG

Its finished with an RSI of 16 so ripe for a rebound.

If it were me I might wait a bit longer rather than the opening bell tomorrow and see where it is about 9-9:30.

If it falls further from its close today during tomorrow that pushes the RSI ever further into oversold should it close at that level. That would maybe make me take a small punt because its not likely to move that much further down in the short term. But within the day its looks to me as though it could be quite volatile with likely plenty selling into any rise.

I think as a punt this is all about 10-20% quick profit. (imo, dyor etc etc.)

Its just about timing. Personally I am not mad about catching a falling knife even with the blindfold removed.

I sold out when it hit my stop loss (I am down 15% from that small punt). I continue to keep an eye on this because it has great potential to appreciate but its all about timing.

It looks to me as though Rukwa is being written off by the market (at least in the short term). Hard to know why but it could be a combination and accumulation of lower yields and more expensive to extract and longer to get to market? If it needs £100m? where is that coming from? because up to now there is no hint of an imminent JV to take this forward.

That leaves Galatica which obviously has run into some sort of problem as production is/has been delayed but we are not told why (thats a red flag),

Will HE1 end up owning it all? It looks increasingly like it to me as they are ring fencing funds to it which again supports my guess that Rukwa is now on the back plate.

Has HE1 sufficient funds to take Galatica forward ... ...don't know,....but its feeling to me that if it is all about Galatica now, then the SP may still have some way to fall to give value based on projected revenue from there.

And that (fwiw) is my best case scenario)

Thanks Chris, and although that was a more lengthy reply I found it more accurate to asses what you meant.

I know I get ribbed for the length of my posts but these are complex themes and ideas and thoughts posted so I do my best to make it clear how I am thinking either in response to clarify or as an original thread.

(I would ask however, when did SGC make the list? As I recall it came out of nowhere hence Thorns "fluke" remark. Certainly I do not remember it ever being on an original list of candidates that was part of the P1a trial.)

And that again goes to my remark of how little we know. Why did they think out of the blue that SGC was the "right" cancer to target? because of relative failures elsewhere or indications from those tests that SGC would be more suitable? That answer is pretty instructive for investors but we won't know until the release eventually of P1a data.

I am expecting a P1b update to come in front of the final P1a data release because I have a feeling that eventually P1a illuminated the way forward and P1b will show good results and will therefore over shadow the sporadic success of P1a when all the data is made public.

And it is that reason that it looks like it is becoming easier to fund the progress. But I am guessing and its based on not what we are told but by thinking about what we haven't been told.