Member Info for wyndrum

Looks positive to me for tomorrow. 57p or maybe a close above 60p... (imo dyor etc)

Umm

... "@wyn 🤡 if lenders really wanted admin, they’d have pulled the plug months ago. instead they’ve sat through 8 extensions and even backed a plan b refi framework. why? because shareholder value does matter, it underpins confidence, future funding and optics. stop peddling doomsday fantasy, it’s lazy and ignores every rns fact on the table. 💯

seriously go do some research before you spout *******s about administration etc. you are so out of your comfort zone and depth here. 💯👍"

Oh...in that case it would have helped if you had not started the reply with my name....

Going back to this plan B. clearly its not as good as Plan A at 30p. Or have I got that wrong as well?

The lenders are happy with Plan A and also if plan B was better then that would be Plan A... ...

Given that, I am not sure why you are so confident in Plan B (which is woolly wording by the way, and there is a reason for that...)

Ice it was you that it brought it up not me. "Do you genuinely think if the deal, doesn’t proceed the lenders pull the plug!!

You asked the question. All I said was that it was an option. I have no idea how likely or not it may be. I just tried to describe a scenario where it might be.

I think this all highlights how little is known about what is going on behind the scenes. Therefore to have definitive views based on such scanty info seems misplaced to me.

"Do you genuinely think if the deal, doesn’t proceed the lenders pull the plug!! "

I don't know but it is an option. This comes back to the different viewpoints of the company and the lenders.

The assumption is (and may well be true), that given enough time Woods can right itself and trade away whatever potentially short term problems they have.

The Lenders might see value for themselves if the company was in administration with sufficient asset sales likely to get them most of their money back?

The one class in all of this that is at the bottom of the plie are the shareholders.

Jan, are you talking to me?

Ah, thank you. no reference to it inthe latest one though... and given its a lower offer, is that significant?

(Read a bit woolly too ?)

Anyway. Tomorrow should clarify things a bit more.

When we were all getting very excited about Samsung and design wins and what other products could be on the cards I at the time posted about an article I read about Samsungs latest effort and a small footnote in the spec was that it was hard to do a foldable because of the battery size and that SS had got around that with a more potent battery that was much smaller and sounded exactly like what CapXx are doing in terms of performance....

Anyhooo I now read apple are going the same route....

22p per share is starting to look conservative to me.... ha ha :0))

This plan B? Where is it stated that there is one?

I keep reading about "commercial alignment " as though Woods have done something outside Sid but the RNS says its Sid:

"There is now commercial alignment with Sidara and Wood's lenders on the detailed terms of the Proposed Refinancing..."

So the deal is done, isn't it? Woods and their financial advisors recommend it and so do Wood's lenders.... who's left? (other than an unknown bidder at the 11th hour)

My experience of commercial lenders is that they don't fixate on the loss in a way that we might as individuals.

If terms are broken they call in the debt if they are not convinced by the company trading its way out of it.

What seems a lot of money to us is maybe not so much to them, plus it depends on what Sid may have guaranteed to them in this offer.

Some of you will be too young to know this but in the recession of the 80's when mortgage rates were 15% houses were repossessed right left and centre even though they amount of the forced sale were far less than the amount owed. But the lenders were not interested in giving borrowers time to adjust.

It was cut throat, horrible and caused immense distress. It was constantly MSM headline news of the families made homeless, but it still went on.

Lenders are much more concerned with capital preservation than they are with the individual, in this case, company and their actions can seem perverse when viewed from the company's perspective, but lenders have different criteria. (There is a reason why banks are universally "hated".)

I

This is an interesting situation to me. I don't have any emotional attachment to the outcome one way or the other. So peoples posts on all scenarios can often show a bias in their thought process.

We all do it and its based on assumptions. What I find interesting is there is actually very little known info other than the actions on the players. From those actions of Sid and BoD all sorts of diverse opinions here have been thrown up. They can't all be right.

As I say it will be interesting to see how this eventually pans out.

If its all luck, and it may be, its possible, then I presume you don't believe in the predictability of crowds?

This from AI asking that question:

"Yes, dense crowds become predictable, behaving like a fluid with collective, regular movements such as oscillating patterns, when their density surpasses a certain threshold. This phenomenon was observed in crowds at events like the San Fermín festival and was found to be consistent with hydrodynamic theory. Understanding these predictable patterns can help prevent tragedies in confined spaces by informing crowd management strategies."

Falcon, I have no idea about this but:

Who says its Sid that don't want the results published? Who says the BoD are working for Sid?

You make a couple of assumptions but what if the results have unearthed some other problems? Sid are made aware of them but it is the interest of the BOD and shareholders to get this done at 30p because maybe it is a "reasonable" offer and this worse than expected figures might drive the price down further if Sid walked away?

Charts are just a graphical representation of the buys and sells and relationship. How that unfolds then "dictates" the most likely next move based on crowd psychology.

Its no different to an RNS dropping. People buy on the new news by estimating what impact it will have in the future on the current SP.

No one buys with the expectation the stock will fall in the future, whatever system they use.

But the key is the future. As it is ultimately unpredictable you make an (educated) guess on how events will most likely unfold.

Some think "research" is the way forward, (flawed imo, as you don't have anywhere near enough info to make an informed decision and the longer forward you look, the less you can know about new info emerging which makes LTH a riskier bet than is generally acknowledged in small companies too.)

"No reason for the long protracted falls in either imo"

fwiw in my experience there is always a reason.

PI's just might not know it yet.

Having its first look at 54p.

Looks likely to take out the recent 54p high soon, maybe tomorrow. 60p is the new target I think as 54p has created a new albeit minor resistance level. (60p is a 20% increase from here, so worth trading for many) imo dyor etc

In which case Burgeseb, another bidder will enter the fray

Burgeseb, you only read one side of the ledger.

There are overheads and liabilities to running a business as well.

Clearly they think at 30p a share its worth it, but as I say there are 2 sides to the coin.

I think the word "value" means different things to different people.

In this case of this company being bought, the buyer wants to extract maximum "value", That has less to do with the accounts than some seem to believe.

The accounts are backward looking. the value will be what profits in the future are likely.

Once you are talking about future revenue/profit it then becomes a matter of opinion.

For instance had Wood known about the accounts debacle they would have sold at 230p-270p. So even the company itself could not predict the future.

You buy a house at auction thats been repossed. it needs work doing to it. It has more value to a builder than a non-builder as they can reduce the cost of repair, so when they come to sell it there will be greater value/profit.

Where will the property market be in 6 months or a year?

Part of the "valuation" is to do with risk and long(er) term planning.

As PI's we have no idea about any of it. We just buy our ticket, thinking we have done our own DD and know better than those who are selling so we can buy.

Its a crap shoot and while I can't offer a solution to it (other than not to over commit), we can at least recognise the fact that we are going in pretty much blind and therefore to temper both our expectations of returns and our ego's for the odd time the roulette ball falls on our number!