Member Info for wyndrum

"Isn't the point that Dox really isn't that effective against STS so even if with AVA6000 'Dox behaves like Dox' the results could still be very mixed? It very much depends patient to patient?"

Chris, you know that was one of my thoughts why the P1a trial took so long, don't you? I said perhaps there were mixed results and that the trial regulators insisted on more cohorts and dosing regimes to see if these potential anomolies might be worked out?

And now you say results might have varied from patient to patient...

I 'm not sure you could make this up.

And the only reason I kept trying to figure any of it out was because the longer the trial went on the lower the SP went.

For me, that was hardly rocket science to guess all was not going well, or at least to plan, but the vast majority here could only hurl abuse and asked for me to be reported and banned.

This is some BB.

MM, I wouold look at the PE ratio

An electronics co in the UK has an average PE ratio of about 20.

If Cap made £50m that gets a Mkt cap of £1b.

I don't think that is so out of the realms in the short term if they really have a demonstrable technical advantage.

Well, I said up to 24 months to get to 1.2b so I don't think 22p is overnight either.

But once the ball gets to roll then it could be very quick indeed.

Say they announced that they are being integrated in the new factory's being built in the US with SS and Intel. What price then for the Sp, even though it could be a while before the factory is on line? What if the design win supplier, then says its being used in other products like mobile phones, what tis the SP then?

Even if they are bought out £1.2b won't seem like much.

22p you mark my words... (anyway, 22p is just my personal target. if it gets to 22p its not likely stopping there.) :0))

The RSI above 80 being a chart thing, is odds based.

Hemo has proved to be an exception so it does happen, but its very rare.

FWIW if you sold and it was at a profit then well done. The next time you buy HEMO it will be a freah start and the price will have no reference to that previous purchase.

If you let the "what might have beens" play with your head you will get sucked into indecision, which will I think, prove more costly than the relatively rare outcome of this HEMO example.

Anyway, a profit is a profit, so don't beat yourself up on it. (imo)

D, do you mind me asking what the lesson you learned was?

Van, the news will either be exceptional or this company is going nowhere.

There does not seem to be any middle ground.

IF IF IF, the wafer thin, the heat resistant, the patents, the design wins, the stakes in the company, mean anything then it has to be "exceptional"

Unicorn is not the half of it.

How long will it take? That i can't grasp but I am guessing any time now to 24 months.

The only nag is is there enough money to get through and not do another cash raise.

I think there is on paper but all this extra work may have increased cash burn. Its the only thing I think, that is holding the SP back.

(imo dyor etc etc)

I don't know but it feels the MM's are trying to get a sense of what stock they might need to hold to keep the market orderly.

I think the view "positions already taken" might currently be true resulting in small, around the edges type stuff left for now.

They had pushed the bid ask up and not much happened so they are marking it down to see if a flood of nervous (or otherwise) sells appear.

This is potentially tricky for some as they might be sitting on good profits and don't want them eroded away. However with the usual spread getting back in later might still be more expensive than staying out.

It always helps to have a plan of when you will sell prior to any purchase. (mines 22p....)

Thanks gogs

How much did it cost to keep the rigged hot stacked?

What about lost rental income for the rig?

Something not quite right about all this.....

Jackster,

feel a bit more superior do you now with your insight on my emotional state?

Good.

Lets move on.

Now, why do you think after all this time that the loan has been restructured?

We can see whats in it for AVCT (Although the deferment comes with strings attached) and here is the thing. If a deal was to come through shortly (as promised, or at least inferred), why not just pay the loan off each quarter in cash going forward?

That suggests to me that any deal in the next few months will be fairly small beer and not game changing. And there is no way to know if a deal will materialise or not until it does.

So do you think Heights, after all the grief that AVCT have endured will just say, "How can we help"? I think it likely that some sort of financial encouragement was given to them either demanded or volunteered.

It is AVCt's interest to get the SP as high as possible prior to a RI If it was 100p then its a £400m mkt cap and raising another 5-10% of equity won't look too bad. At sib 30p its different ball game.

I have no idea what will happen but that scenario to me, does not look that outlandish.

The alternative is fantastic data releases, SP shoots up, license deal for who knows what , and then, who cares about the loan.

This RNS did not shout that scenario to me.

What was good was that have got some breathing space and it buys them time. I am just saying that won't have been for free.

Shocker, eh?

Alderban: "Win perpetuating this RI dream of his again.

Can you give me an example when it has not been an RI?

You have some neck given I have a pretty good track record of seeing them coming

....to get the repayment scheme altered?

Heights had the upper hand and nothing to lose, so AVCt would have needed to give them something? (I'm not suggesting the cost is prohibitive, but I don't think it would have come cheap either.)

The only element of caution is the potential RI. Again, you have to look at the wording of RNS's.

All very positive and in the T&C's, the vary last option in the list is the RI.

Psychologically being last it makes you think it is the least likely.

However, nothing has changed other than the Payment restructure. And that could have been (from AVCT's pov, desperate.

Talking about licenses and deals has been going for year(s) and it has never materialised, yet.

What we do know as a fact now is that at least £13m needs to be raised in Jan and a RI has been shown to be an option.

It could still turn out to be the most likely outcome given we are only a few months away from this new deadline.

I don't how this will be resolved, but I think it is pretty clever constructed RNS.

Lots of nudge nudge wink wink, but when you strip it all out is that for reasons unknown, the loan has been restructured and at least £13m is promised with no actual evidence its coming from anywhere other than a RI.

(personally I think the deal with the loan is to have that particular sword over AVCT's head removed when they go to the market for £20m ish in Jan. so as to make it easier to raise.)

I am not in my 70's and I choose to carry on working for the social aspect (and to keep my mental faculties engaged), rather than miss out on that interaction.

"Windy it’s way easier when you know there is a 35p floor and you significantly believe in the fundamentals, of course I didn’t really want to increase my stake here, however it was the smart play to take advantage and get it into the 20s."

Except there is not a floor at 35p its now 30p with a risk of no offer.

I would take issue that it was a "smart" play". To increase your stake beyond what you wanted to, suggests some apprehension, however mild,

Further you were not aware of all the fundamentals (ie the scale of the cash flow/losses etc etc).

I hope it doesn't come to you having any sort of loss but they may reduce the bid or walk away completely, or another higher bid may emerge but for the risk reward and the time you have tied up much more capital than expected it does not look to me a smart move but much more of a gamble.

(You asserted the same reasoning on WH Smith. I think whenever accounts are being re-looked at you can never be sure what might be unearthed beyond the initial reasons as this example has unfortunately shown.)

Steve, now its closed its getting toppy again with the RSI at 75

Given its got its 2 options available it could retrace from here to either 55p or 57p as a brief test of the support or move further up to 65p and retrace from that level back to 60p.

I can't call which one of those 2 scenarios is more or less likely. I would prefer a move up on monday to around 65p and then the retrace to 60p as it would keep momentum higher than the former potential outcome.

From there it would look like 75p would be the next obvious target with after that the high 90's-100p range. (The caveat now would be that those levels are a year plus old and therefore not that helpful other than just a broad guide. Having said that, 100p will still be seen as a significant resistance level due to its historic strength as a support back then)

(On monday it could go straight into a trading range between 75p-100p but that is unlikely without further new news but who knows!)

Anyway, the chart will change each day but from here, today where it has closed, I would "expect" the SP to settle into a 75p-100p range some time during the next week or so, prior to the next set of new news. (imo dyor etc)

There is no reason to doubt Ice but I think averaging down is a dangerous game.

Using amounts of £10k

First £10k buy at 60p

Falls to 40p so buy £10k gives 50p average

Falls to 30p so buy £20k to give 40p average

Falls to 20p so buy £40k to give 30p average.

Falls to 18p so buy £80k to give 24p average

Your are now in for 16 x the original stake. Psychologically people normally buy most initially and average down with lesser amounts unless of course very confident, however that mentality is harder to maintain when the SP keeps falling and there are multiple top ups at lower levels.

So to maintain a return in this example requires relatively deep pockets from the first purchase and it would raise the question if the buyer was so confident at 60p why not buy the eventual £160k's outlay at that original price?

There is a reason why they say never catch a falling knife. It more often than not causes a lot of pain.

Fair enough Stew, normally the SP tells the story. Maybe this one will turn out ok for those who bought in the last few days prior to suspension.

I don't know if this is too simplistic, but if you don't have the money to pay your mortgage they foreclose.

You can have equity in your house and they still foreclose.

You can say you are starting anew job in 3 months on higher pay and they will still foreclose.

Thats a fundamental of loans

I was initially attracted to having a punt on this but when the SP kept falling below the offer price it suggested there was much more to this than we knew at the time and my 2 fears were the bid never goes through (and still might not and it looks like its admin time if thats the case), and my money when it was due to go into suspension mode, would be tied up for an indefinite amount of time with no way out.

So for me, even if 35p is or was realised which suggested a 100% profit at the 18p suspension price (and when its that "nailed on" it never is), the risk was not worth the reward because of these 2 unknowns.

The market was not sure about 35p (hence the sell of from that price) and in my (at times painful) experience, the market is rarely wrong.

"Sidara still don’t have the support, however they are using lender pressure as expected. This is far from over. 🤣💯👍🤦‍♂️"

How do you know they don't have support? Why would the BoD recommend it then? Are you saying the BoD have not sounded out the major shareholders? Are you saying Sid has not spoken to the major share holders?

It seems to me that Sid think the audit could be worse then even they are expecting and need a get out in case it simply is not viable.

It looks to me its 30p or curtains and with an extra kick in the slats that its months away before any SH's get anything