Member Info for wyndrum

Cest, I would very politely suggest that almost all the posts here are pointless in the sense that they might give any of us a heads up as to what the company is about to do that we could not get elsewhere.
So to spend sometime looking at ways to become better PI's when the opportunity arrives is no bad thing. If one single poster takes on board what Doggy did and does it for themselves and gets the same reaction that Doggy did, then that will be the post of the year here.
2 outcomes are likely: one, Avct will fail to deliver and lot of people here will have losses that will be incredibly painful and they will rue the day they over committed, or AVCT will deliver and they will make a lot of money, but they will I am sure also realise through that relief, how close they came to if not financial ruin, something emotionally akin to it.

Well, I care Doggy.
What you have done (reducing/ removing your anxiety levels by reselling enough of your holding to get to that level) is a panacea to the stress of buying too much of a stock, which I would not be surprise to learn you are finding, surprisingly, quite liberating as well as the mental relaxation it now affords.
Its one of the most important aspects for PI's to grasp, understand and execute.
So I think that's its a very healthy thing you have done and also to share with others as the majority here are stressed entirely because they are financially over committed. To hear someone on this board feels better in their situation with a solution that works can only be helpful, if not to all, then certainly some.
GL

Its as juvenile as the people who inspire it. Just filter them, thats all you have to do, its simple and easy.
Responding clogs up the board and puts others off. Calling them names does nothing positive. it doesn't even stop the posters the respondents don't like from posting... so.. JUST FILTER THEM

Also, I would imagine, based on the binary nature this stock the majority of people buying now will be waiting for the "big " news, and therefore may have sticker fingers.
So I guess those who have weathered the drop from 160p + are unlikely to sell before a direct AVCT news release rather than speculation and related but not share moving info.
Roll on 116p, that what I say...

The MM's have just found out where the floor is. Push it down and see where the buyers come in. So , 2 vaccines announced and we seem to be steady at about 105-115p. This is, imo, good news for buyers and holders. No reason to suggest when more vaccines are released there will be much change. However given this is perhaps as low as AVCT is likely to go, it means buyers need to get in in and around these prices now(ish) because as they do, the price will edge up.
(This is where a chart is useful A I;0)

AI, perhaps your life has more routine than you realise...

AI, If all a Share price was, was its Fundamental value, there would be no market. Shares become over sold and over bought by PEOPLE (not shouting just for emphasis), its people that determine the SP. MM's reflect the SP, they don't "make it"
(I would put the caveat in that charts are less helpful when used on a stock or index that is so small it can be manipulated by big players, which is many individual stocks but nevertheless the principle is sound (but only if you believe people are predictable.). Clearly this board is a great example of the cross section of views. Take FOMO: you think that does not affect the SP? People frantically buying in in case/before news breaks. You think the MM's can "control" that?
Does the current SP reflect accurately the value of AVCT based on fundamentals? If it does today, did it last week or the week before? What fundamentally has changed? (other than people's perception?)
No stock is priced today in any index based on its fundamental value, not one. The current price reflects the value individuals think it MIGHT be in 3,6 or 12 months.
As I have tried to explain Charts are not used to predict major market moving events, They predict peoples likely reactions to certain emotional stimuli.
(Just look at this sell off? If nothing has changed why did people "panic sell? We all knew various vaccines were under development and news would or could break at any time? But, I would suggest fear took over and an over reaction took place not by MM's but by stock holders.)
Understand people and at the same time control your own fear and greed drivers and it all gets a lot easier to make money. imo.
The great irony of course is that this is not such a stock that charts can really be that useful. ha ha!

AI, No, no offense taken, but I would suggest just a couple of things. Yes charts are backward looking but heres the thing. Its people who buy and sell shares and its therefore people who affect the prices, not fundamentals.
So, if you give people the same stimulus will they repeat their actions? I think its fair to say yes, as people are in fact very predictable to strong emotional triggers, such as... wait for it... Fear and Greed.
If you think this is rubbish (people being predictable) then you pretty much have to ignore the whole world of psychiatry.
So, given charts are just a graphical representation of peoples buy and sells, then given similar future conditions, will their actions repeat themselves?
And the other point is: If charts are rubbish then why does every single trading house have the chart up when looking at a stock? It they have no use, or as much use as astrology, why do they look at them? Seriously, why? Why are highs and lows important then, if meaningless?
Food for thought? But each to his own, as always

Amateur Investor commented that he thought Charts were useless in commenting on a previous thread "Yes it frustrating but its not complicated...." sighting that no chart could predict Monday's fall. And no they can't but that is not what charts aim to do, or are used to help with.
When I day traded US T Bills back in the day there was almost always market moving news released a 3:30pm (GMT). The best advice I was ever given was, "don't be in the market when the news is coming out". And religiously I would be clear by 3:00pm at the latest. Yes, I would pitch after the news broke but at least I was likely to be on the right side of it. Because the news often as not would either confirm the overall movement or put in a 180 degree reversal. There was no way of knowing.
That's why it doesn't work for AVCT, I don't know when the news will break so the charts are not reliable enough to base my decision making on. A different process has to be used.
And charts don't predict (or claim) to future either (how can they?) The best example I can give of a chart interpretation is to use a professional Poker player as an easy to understand example.
Our Pro is sitting there with 2 Kings in his hand and the other 2 Kings are face up on the table. He bets heavy because the odds of anybody else beating that are long. So he bets heavy. Turns out someone else was dealt 4 Aces. So our player loses but what were the odds? and if our pro was dealt the same hand again he would bet just as heavy because the odds would be stacked in his favour just as they were the first time.
That's what charts do. They predict likely outcomes, and applied to the right instrument, can be surprisingly accurate....Most of the time.
Anyway, just a quick break from AVCT, DYOR etc etc

Nothing posted here will be in front of the market. That's a big thing to accept. We are not likely, ever, in a million years, going to break news here before an RNS or a big spike in the SP which will be a precursor to breaking news.
Where does that leave us?
Personally I use charts to buy and sell but that does not work on this type of situation. (It can work, I s'pose very short term but not really because of spreads and one day breaking news at any time.... and .. yada, yada, yada...)
Many have bought this share over the last 6 months based on the release of a successful covid test. You either wait until its released or for whatever reason, not coming and sell, probably at a very big loss (50%-75%)
And that's it.
The SP fluctuation in between these 2 outcomes mean nothing (as unfortunately do all our posts on the subject). People might be feeling a bit burnt this week but I am pretty sure if it went to 200p next week those same people would not sell, because they would be rumour/reason as to why it was now 200p and they would wait for further appreciation.
What has led me personally to stay over committed is that I am hoping that the cancer therapy will prove successful so even if the covid boat sails past avacta there will be sufficient SP appreciation in their other strands of enterprise.
But really all the angst-type posts are just asking for reassurance from strangers who know no more that the individual posting.
To gain solace from supportive posts shows a misplaced and imo unsuitable mental attitude to their current dilemma.
Again either sell if the pain is too great and stop reading or even checking on the SP (it will be far more liberating than you can possibly imagine !) Or sell enough where the worst outcome does not bother you.
I have grown to enjoy this board much more since the amount of abusive posts has diminished and as a form of entertainment its absolutely great. As a source of helpful info (I don't mean its not interesting at times), but as I said up top, we, here, are not going to break the news, so why waste our time trying? (I think its part of a mental reassurance in the original decision that in that the original decision was based on seeing results some time ago, this is just trying to justify it. Its actually the same driver as the Angst type posts.)
So we either just suck it up or sell.......
Anyway, just my take.

All I can say is that I have ordered a case of Tatty for Xmas along with a couple of Bottles of Macallan to either celebrate or soften the blow (ooh er missus...) As you can see a bit of a Wyn Wyn there...

(I'll get my coat..)

Ah well, I may have divulged too much info there Afa, apparently it was not so much the talking in the sleep as the licking... that woke her up. But as you astutely surmised, it is a happy household in Wyn Towers!

I think Inkyboy might be onto something here. It chimes with AS saying something along the lines of "other covid solutions"

Plus Mrs Wyn reminded me that she had heard me talking in my sleep that the test/affimers can/do inhibit development of the virus. In which case how would that work if you just gobbed on the strip. You would have to lick it like a lollypop wouldn't you? (stop me if I am getting too technical), or at least someway for it to affix to the virus, for that aspect of tech to work in that way?
Now that would be an RNS!

In which case Raz, following your logic )it would be better if no updates at all? (Just kidding ;0)

And fwiw, the price now is pretty close to an entry point I would have thought for some. Also some traders don't always wait for the "exact" price to be hit on the basis that if enough get in just above, the entry point never gets hit and they miss out.
Its all self fulfilling of course, but when a "system" starts to work for the masses it tends to then stop working! and tweaks are added....
I guess I am saying I think we are very close to the bottom if not at it.

Visainn, I have banged on a bit about this already, but it is imo always worth repeating:
What you have endured is the classic "Fear & Greed" emotional pull. Its normal and endemic amongst humans. Share dealing was and is built around these 2 emotions. They are difficult to control. (That's why the MM's get rich )
Like any problem you have to admit you have one. Once you have then you can start to practise controlling it.
Every share purchase should start off with a plan prior to that purchase.
Why are you buying at that particular price right now? (do you think it is the lowest it is likely to be, if not why are you rushing in?)
What Price do you expect it to rise to? (and why?)
If you are wrong and the SP falls, what price will you exit at? (What price does it need to fall to, for you to realise the initial decision to buy was wrong?)
Finally, what timescale do you expect the trade to have been successful by? (Ie I expect a 10% rise in 4 weeks or 4 months or whatever)
If you have this worked out before you make the purchase and stick to it then your angst will disappear.
Obviously to a degree it is all guesswork albeit hopefully educated, which is why you have to have your own stop loss. You also have to have a strategy that works, if not every time, then enough times that over a number of trades you win more often than you lose.
If you have no strategy then you might as well just go down the bookie's and randomly pick horses to bet, sometimes you will win but more often you will lose.
The fact that you have had the courage to post your experience is to me, a very positive sign.
And if you think this is all rubbish, its one of the main reason algo's buy & sell, because even the pro's can't always control F&G!

Hi Agent, I did that ancestry thing too! ( I nearly got far enough back to find out who my parents were!)

Not really, the charts don't care about updates, future updates, sales figures, cash in hand or any other fundamental info. (Because the SP already reflects all the info available, including expectations.)
right now I would interpret the SP and its recent "action" as a reflection that the "market" is wary of current sales levels and margins and returns and competition and recession and how that will affect EVE. Once the update arrives people (the market) can re-assess and the SP will alter depending on their collective view. A break above 4.25p say, will show that the market now has confidence that there is sufficient sales/profits to justify a valuation above 4.25p previous celling

yeah.... I did miss something... it was the dates on the news items... (just for a fleeting moment...)

Am I missing something or is this it? the news ….