Member Info for wyndrum

ST, Mrs Wyn, asked how things were going on the "ranting sites" as she (accurately I think), call these BB's I remarked that I had filtered you (not by name, just as a poster), and she thought that was pretty pathetic.... And she was right. So I have unfiltered the very few I had put in the green box. (Sometimes I can't see the wood for the trees, sorry)

MM, I get your query, but at the same time I think that will be the popular reaction.

We are all here naturally very clued up relative to joe public, probably more so then many decision makers on this subject, which is saying something. But apart from a very few, the public will not pay to take tests when they feel fine, particularly if they have been jabbed.
If you are forced to at work, then obviously that's different, or mandated to before going to an event, but generally I personally would be surprised if people who feel perfectly fine, took a test.

Mozzer,

I did not "INSIST" we could not sell for more in the EU, I just wanted to know why we could? I wanted to understand why the assumption was we could charge more for what would be a likely, larger order? (normally customers get increased discounts if they order more of a product). I also queried this as it was an assumption based on not even knowing what we will charge the UK govt. And finally I don't know if any AVCT test is being produced yet at GAD & ODX? Do you?

I get people get ****ed at me, but perhaps if you all read the posts more carefully and did not blindly drop in words I never said to enforce presumptions, the conversations would go along a lot better?

Ahh.. I see what did you there Vegas…..

I thought that ND, but others here say no, you don't RNS just because the company gets an order....

Vegas I really don't, I want to see 275p smashed on news you can take to the bank and 500p double smart, I want to see a cascade of good news on ties up and AVA6000 progress.
I am committed to this one in time, which is more valuable to me than money. I just want it to deliver (and always have)

I dunno Robbo, where would the SP be if there were no buyers buying?

We are where we are but I am disappointed to be a week into drilling and the SP be at the lowest point in the last 4 weeks but it will be what it will be.

(Regarding charts: I posted that to minimise risk you would buy at a close and hold above 23p. I made the case that you could increase risk by buying on a hold and close above 21.5p too. Neither have happened yet. So it remains in a fairly broad trading range. Somewhat dull and as I say, a tad disappointing…)

JD, I take your points as to how you get to where you are but what I have no faith in, is the optimistic assumptions constantly and incessantly made here, week in week out, running for over a year that have not materialised.

All I want (what I really really want), is just a deadline or statement that I can now believe so as to make a judgement on my investment going forward.

ND, apparently we don't need a rns for an order so maybe he can point to the fact that sales have started?

JD, you making an ASSUMPTION that we can charge more to the EU than the UK? Why? Based on what? We don't know yet what we are selling it in the UK for because we haven't been given that info.

Who says we have the manufacturing capacity to transfer over to the EU? Whats that based on?

Are we in an NDA with the GOVT? Have they already secured our capacity to manufacture and we are being held back on their timelines?

So its not ridiculous because your argument against mine has no fact behind it at all to invalidate mine?

That's why Monday has to be a day of clarification. There are too many different scenario's covering all outcomes (good & bad) to be constantly left open to speculation. We all know the market does not like uncertainty and punishes companies SP as a result of it.

Yep, never wish for a lower SP......

Hold On Scardey, What about the EU? There has been "no orders subject to..." its only been a week and I am ok with that but there seems to have been no manufacturing for the potential EU market to provide a stock pile (which I never thought would happen anyway) to allow AVCT to hit the ground running.

So if it is going to take 10 weeks to get 5m test per month out for the UK then who is going to produce for the EU market, who presumably would need 5 times that amount?

It may all be happening as Ophidian reckons behind the scenes, and I am being particularly thick in not accepting AS's word on this, but AS has been vague on suppliers and manufacturers so we are back to assumptions and I fully accept you might be correct, but the only actual evidence we have is what has happened previously to base our future assumptions on and its well, vague.

And its funny, that you mention "Incidentally, were you expecting the govt to bin 10's (if not 100's) of millions of Innova tests overnight? " because I think it was me who got flamed in March saying that by ordering another £b Innova tests we were not going to get a test out until July and recently re-iterated (and got flamed again) that the delay in May was due to a potential Innova stockpile.

Monday is a big day, it really is.

Well, all I can say is I don't see a minimum of a 10 week further delay as "good news" (That puts us in the second half of Q3. Since when did we all think that was a likely timescale?)

And its based on more assumptions that it is AVCT that will be the replacement and that the problem is stockpiling with no evidence at all that any of that is the case.

So I can see why it spiked as a rumour and then has fallen right back when the news actually sunk in.

Still looking (along with the market) to Monday for clarification.

BILT, Its difficult to get tone in a post/email. Basically my experience is ,its not the tone of the poster per se but often the mood of the recipient that determines how it comes across.

Right now I imagine, for all the rhetoric, many here are nervous having seen such see-saws in the SP and not quite knowing whats going on the background and I am seen as fueling the flames. Its not my intention, its just trying to explore various scenario's as to why and what is most likely to come next.

I really couldn't be less emotional about this stock. It will be what it will be.

I am guilty of forgetting previous data which can make some of my posts at best tiresome, but again, it s never my intention.

But at least given the SP spike, everyone can rest assured that no amount of (perceived) negativity here can adversely affect the SP.

If they were reading this BB Fly, they were probably expecting to get out at 30p Spud.....

BITL, "Wyn requires detailed help with clearly worded RNS"

…. to finalise the technical file for CE marking the AffiDX® SARS-CoV-2 antigen lateral flow test for professional use, allowing the Company to begin commercial roll-out in Europe in May. (20/04/2021)

Which bit did I misunderstand? or below:

"Our next key milestone is full clinical validation and CE marking of our lateral flow antigen test which we anticipate will be around the end of this quarter and I look forward to updating the market when that milestone is achieved." (8/03/2021)

I don't why you keep having a go at me for simply pointing out that assuming, just because As has said something, it is likely to happen? The evidence, actually points the other way, inasmuch as its always late. I am simply saying that I don't think he can for the SP, push this can any further down the road without very detailed explanations.

We will see Monday. And I obviously hope it will be nothing but good news.

ES, I did say "to date"

Ophidian: "...you DO NOT KNOW THAT there is zero evidence of no sales whilst there is a body of evidence pointing in the other direction."
Any sale would have been RNS'd agreed? There have been no RNS's. Therefore its not an unreasonable assumption. There is no actual evidence at all for sales.

Your assumption that that sales are being made without shareholders knowledge is based on taking a product to market.

It is at best confused as to what relationship AVCT have with the UK govt. Agreed?

Home use is where the big money is. We are waiting for that to happen and according to AS it could take to the end of the year so we are dependent on the UK govt giving it emergency approval.

The unfolding debacle with Innova may actually hinder the granting of emergency use. I'm not saying that will happen but it could.

There are so many unknowns that making any assumption given the delays that have ACTUALLY occurred in contradiction of what AS has previously said, and beset this whole enterprise makes any logical jump a very risky business.

Assuming it effectively says what's gone before ie talk/negotiations etc etc and nothing firm, then it depends on what he says about the original aim of AVCT and and assuming no delays there, then probably reduce down to a much smaller holding of 15,000 shares, and see how AVA6000 (as that seems the most obvious trial to give a result) pans out, which I think is at least 6-9 months away.

I genuinely have no idea what AS is going to say on Monday, not a clue. The SP thinks not much right now too, but again probably like me, is just waiting for this last go to see exactly where the test is commercially.

Of Course there is an "intention" to sell it but AS has unfortunately , whether of his own making or not, given several misleading or at best delayed time lines resulting in no sales.

There has also been an intention to sell a saliva test, and a Bams test. So I would suggest its not semantics at all.

And whatever you think of my "interpretation", the market I would also suggest concurs.

And when I say once & for all, for the explanation of where the test is sales wise on Monday, if its not unequivocal then the SP is likely to fall.
This is an investment and the SP is of crucial importance to me and its likely direction within a reasonable timeframe.
The market has been walked up the hill (to 275p) and is now clearly pricing in more delay for sales. (I am guessing July onwards), if no clear path to margins and scale and times are forthcoming, then its going to get pretty sticky imo.

In that worse case scenario it could be offset if unexpected good news is released on AVA6000 or with new tangible updates on the various tie Pharma tie ups

Personally i think Monday is the biggest day in AVCT's history to date from an investors point of view.