Member Info for wyndrum

I get and understand the "de-risk now" case but I don't think it makes a lot of sense on this stock:

Presumably people only bought into HE1 because of the belief it would strike Helium, so why sell just before you are about to know the result? Maybe some very savvy buyers got in at the earlier, but even risker stage, and never intended to wait for the result, but even then that does not make a lot of sense to me.

This is a high risk stock that if it comes off promises exceptional returns. That's the investment case. Now HE1 are so close to announcing the first proper drill result on the back of about as good as it gets initial test and results, just seems bizarre to me?

You have to let it play out, imo, otherwise I have no idea why anyone would have bought in, in the first place.

(Top-slicing is another completely different ball of wax however....)

There only 3 types of people in this world: Those who can do maths and those who can't.....

update:

The share price could do 3 things tomorrow and that's either go up or down.
This could be a false breakout (or bull trap) to suck buyers in and then the SP falls. I don't think it is because it has been below 21.5p for so long and has had enough intraday buys above 21.5p to do that which makes me put this as the lowest probability.

It could simply surge up (or at least move consistently) from here (22.35p) tomorrow, on the basis that 21.5p has been such a strong resistance that now its gone there are no sellers left around this price which means it can only go up.

The final option is that it actually does fall to retest 21.5p (or at least try to), again on the same basis that it was so hard to get above it, it could be a final test to prove that its not a bull trap/false breakout. If that is the case I would expect it more likely to intraday bounce off it as there will be buyers left out today, not trusting todays move up and will pounce on a chance to get in at a better price. I think this is a definite possibility but on balance expect it to move away from here tomorrow and not retest 21.5p.
It will depend I think on the first early moves.
If it holds or improves even slightly, then the left out buyers will pile in, having missed the "ideal" price of just below 22p, which will in turn move the SP up forcing more buyers to get in as quickly as possible to maximise gains.

I don't know where this is going but I think its a high probability that 21.5p to be a support now that won't be broken.

And if that's not the kiss Of Death, I don't know what is! :o))

Boo has been in downward trend since feb making lower lows and lower highs. There was however a tentative reversal pattern with the recent low of 305p but a break and hold above 332p is needed to confirm. Unfortunately that has recently after some days of trying, failed so its looking to test 305p again as a support. If that goes then it looks to be 290p as the next support.

But right now its just in a trading range between 305p and 332p

CN, why do you think anybody would day trade this stock?

(its a good job I don't GET emotional over this sort of thing anymore... :0))

Dai, you are a tease...… (its a good job I don't emotional over this sort of thing anymore... :0))

well, I feel if we are to get very good news either late this week or next, then the SP should start to catch up with our very astute reading if the runes pretty quickly. I have sold some of my angle stock to take advantage of all this analysis (just before I posted) and got in at 21.69p. the slight uptick since then could obviously be coincidental with the tenor of these posts but it should be clearer, maybe, by the end of the day?

It depends on whether this was scheduled or not.

If it wasn't (and it reads to me as though it wasn't) which suggest its either very good or very bad news.
Given what we have had reported thus far it looks like it will be very good news. (I can't see why, if it was bad news he would endure a such a long journey away from the office to make a disappointing announcement form the site, what point would that make or serve? ( plus he then has another arduous journey back.)

However form a PR po, being there at the site delivering good news would be much more impactful for the company.

Normally I rely on the SP to tell me what's going on as my analysis is not reliable and the SP has not moved. So 3 possibilities:

Either A, I'm wrong (high probability), B, the market has not realised and we are putting 2+2 together quicker then them, (possible I suppose but unlikely), or C , confirmation of the greatest Helium find ever is already built into the SP at 20.5p (which does not seem likely)

C's is out so A or B,? I'm going for A, because although 'm often wrong, I'm not always and this time I might be right!

I think what is constantly overlooked in these discussions is that the SP is not the same as the company, the 2 are quite separate. Boo as a company (scandals aside), have performed very well with increasing sales and profits. However the SP reflects the valuation which is an arbitrary amount that fluctuates depending on a variety of external factors that also fluctuate.

The obvious conclusion (it may not be the correct one), is that last year Boo was over valued from an SP pov. and that now with increased turnover and profits but a lower SP, it is no longer over valued or at least not as over valued as much. (Its harder with such a high profile company to suggest its undervalued only because it gets so much scrutiny and everybody, pros and amatuers alike, are scouring the market for under valued companies.)

The SP is not the same as the company.

ST: Absolutely conversational tone:

If this all turns out to be good (as we all want) then you could point to all the careful research you did and why in most case's your investments are successful. If at the 11th hour however this all went tits due to bad seals or whatever, then you would no doubt, fairly I think, say something along the lines of. "Well, that's exploration for you, it high risk, nothing guaranteed, these things sometimes happen." So nothing works all the time.

Where I find it odd is your outward disdain (and that's ok ) for TA, you often refer to charts without realising it in a positive way. last week you posted:
"I copied what it was said as it was based on empirical evidence and not based on "tea leaves readings". Here is a partial quote of what was said:

"You might find that a price rises up to spud announcement and then if the drill is likely to take 6 weeks or more then the SP will drop back or drift sideways and then it might rise again towards the end of the anticipated drilling time etc.

Usually there then follows a drop off on the SP until they start some sort of 'testing' at which point folk will get back in to a stock again in anticipation of a good test result-Many will bale out as close to the test result announcement as possible on the basis that more often than not, the testing isn't as positive as the hype may have inferred.- and better to take 15-20% profit for sure than hope that the results are good".

That was using historical repeated SP movement to predict what was likely to happen in a similar situation although on a different stock in a different situation.. It absolutely was TA, don't you think?

I really do get your dislike of TA in any form but it just seemed as though , to prove how TA was not going to be of any use, you cited a TA type explanation, to prove it was useful after all?

Hi D, only because I have fallen foul of it all before.

Never believe a CEO on generalities, they always (have absolutely have to), big up and exaggerate their company's prospects and in fact the other stock is a great example to refer back to for comparison and as a benchmark with other's going forward I would suggest.

We all suffer from wanting to believe what we want to hear. CC keeps it pretty real so far I think and is, if not the exception to the rule, at least I would take her at face value rather than potentially "assuming" she is "deliberately" under playing it, and hoping there is a bit of "nudge, nudge, wink, wink," going on to convince oneself that there is more to come.

That's why I like the SP, it doesn't lie, sure, it can need a bit of interpretation and can be subject to a bit of MM, but by and large if you look at it long enough (any stock) it starts to paint a picture of the reality of what actually the majority think.

Its not full proof, but then what is?

Anyway fingers crossed for EVE

sorry,that should have read: you SHOULD post the link on the other BB D!

you post the link on the other BB D!

1 step at a time.... just need to hold a close above 21.5p.

I means its not hard is it, for goodness sake, SP, put your back into it!!!

except Mike, based on my interpretation of the chart I added 250k shares on Friday and yesterday and am up substantially on those 2 purchases alone.

It could be just luck and there is no relationship. But I do this a lot (using a chart to time entry (and exit), and it seems to me, based on my success rate, not to be random.

But each to his own, as always.

Infins, this really will be my last post here, but to answer your question. Remember I divorce the SP from the company. The SP a month ago reflected imminent/immediate sales on the back of being certified to sell. (I can't work out what the LFT is priced into the SP, my guess without it, it is probably around 120p.) When this did not happen the sell off started and continued with each day of no sales.
Then it waited for Monday and that news was more delay. Will we get home use? probably but when? We have to accept that AS when talking in vague terms about the future, is pretty much discounted now. Manufacture 30m, by who, by when, for what order? Cost of test will be less and the profit margin will be less. This really sounded like a walk down to me.
Bella said France was going all out on testing to save their summer. Great! but its not us, so who cares? The world is moving on very quickly and all the market is doing is just recalibrating the AVCT SP to reflect that income is likely to be less than previously indicated and therefore potentially less profitable. That's all I have said.

All the non-covid stuff is still great and very exciting but is a while away yet.

If all does come good on the LFT, then equally great, but we don't seem to have any inside track with any govt or large company as of yet, and as we know the test will not be distributed free by the govt any more after August, so it will be competitive against other similar products

And for the last time there is simply no evidence at all, whatsoever that my post's, or my buys & sells affect the SP.

I have been steadily been re-investing my profits made here elsewhere and they are doing fine. I have no intention to buy back into here until I see good news in the way of an order that I can value better the potential income stream, by which time I am sure the SP will be a lot higher than it is now. I will not be buying in lower to try and guess that an order is imminent, as history suggests that is a mugs game.

"But I’m yet to see any of you call it correct consistently."

How has all the "proper" research gone then? All the rns's, the interviews, the presentations? All the "it must be us" posts, all the dot joining to make it inconceivable that AVCT could not be THE govt test? The Huff post article, the £8b budget test program that AVCT HAD to be apart of, the NDA to explain the silence, the promises of Q3, Q4, Q1, Q2 and now Q3 a year later from the lips of AS himself. What happened to Bams, the saliva test? What happened even to the Mologic tie up? How has that all panned out? Not so much a misstep as not a single piece of announcement has to come to pass either on time, or at all, so far. Not one, Not a single one. Think about that before you get quite so sanctimonious, would you?

So by all means have a pop at the charts but they have been far, far more predictively accurate then the alternative and you know its true, because you keep slating me for being deliberately, connivingly, negative because I said, "according to the chart, that the SP is likely to falls below 266p it will go to 242p,... if that goes, 235p, ...if that goes to 214p,...if that goes 198p."

But fear not, I have been unloading since 259p over the last 3 months with the final sale yesterday. I am down to a smaller, core holding now and will hope that the original Cancer therapy is successful and in over the next few years all will be well from a Share price point of view. There will be ample time to increase my holding as and when I think its advantageous.

I wish you all good luck

Sjp, yes its a "wild guess" just like all my others which have turned out to be pretty much on the money. (Plus you really believe anything AS says going forward?)

Stop looking at the product from your invested point of view and try and see to see it through a laymans view. How much would you want to pay for a test that you HAD to take daily when you came home from hols with the wife and 2 kid? You will just take the cheapest one available (as long as its certified.) One is 96%/ one is 99% so what!? (Yes, we know how important the difference is, but joe blogs won't understand or care.)

AVCT have to get the pricing out in front of the market, not paly catch up in they are too expensive. Its ever more crucial that they get this bit right. Better to be very aggressive straight away and then over time walk the price up if they can, but miss the initial association between the AVACTA COVID TEST product and the publics then its just going to be that much harder. We need it to be, as a goal, like referring to a "Hoover" when meaning vacuum cleaner.

They are the best test available, if they are also the cheapest (or so close it makes no odds), then there is only one winner!

The RNS yesterday was manufactured to be released to try and bolster the disappointing news. The market realised that as soon as they read it that it didn't warrant an RNS and knew then what was coming.

There is no sovereign test and there is No NDA. Innova will last until at least the end of August which coincidently will be the time that most of the adult population will be have had 2 jabs (accept its not a coincidence).
It then becomes a free for all for whoever to sell whatever test they can once certified.

What we did learn is that the cost of the test and the profit margin and has been reduced to commercial pressure. I will be surprised if it is at the figures he indicated yesterday. (its still too expensive, imo).

The cost of the test I think need to be about £2.50 for general take up assuming we get home testing approval. Which is why the extra manufacturing capacity has to be taken into context along side the profit margin. Ultimately I think it will be (or will have to be) about profit 25p per test. so 4 times the tests to get to a £1 previous expectant profit.

If you are going to take a daily test when returning home then 10 days at 2.50 per test is probably affordable as an extra given you will have taken a test before and at least 1 test abroad before returning. At that level of cost hotels might incorporate daily testing as well?

AVCT need to grasp the likely economics going forward because there could easily be a raft of tests out there competing and as long as they are certified the cheapest will probably be the most popular. This will absolutely be a " stack 'em high sell 'em cheap" product.

The market unsurprisingly no longer puts much if any weight on any timescale that AS forecasts. Again , by continually and unerringly missing every timeline damages and undermines his credibility until we are where we are.

We have no orders and the way he has worded the "airline" is ambiguous. (And anyway we have no home use or know when or if home use will be granted.) But travel is still the best remaining longer term volume chance for AVCT test, so lets hope that pans out.

AVCT won't sell the test, that's the distributers and manufacturers job, so one can only hope they are on it.

If we just have professional use then every care home and hospital should be using it, which is why its so important to get the cost right. We have to make it a no brainer to use ours.

We are back to guessing when any test might be sold, next week, next month, end of year?. The market is simply re-rating the SP to reflect the latest delay with now the expectation of less tests at less profit margin.

The good news is the market does not care or hold a grudge, as soon as an order does materialise they will respond accordingly.

(All prices based on the end of day close time interval, unless otherwise stated).
First thing is, its nice to have an up day to break the long 8 days of red. That it of in itself is not much consolation. What is more encouraging is that the 17.9p floor of the trading range that started on the 11/05 held (Friday low was 18.16p).

at its most basic it keeps HE1 in a trading range of 17.9p to 21.5p. (The ATH spike of 23p is now of no real importance (imo) and will only be symbolic should HE1 rise pass it.)

The next small target to aim for is a break and hold above 19.5p which would give a little more support that the down trend is over.

So not a particularly significant day today in isolation (except we may well look back and see this as the turning point, but that's one for the future), but perhaps the first step on the road to new highs or at the very least the start to see if HE1 can break bloody 21.5p!!!!! Roll on on 19.6p