RE: Game Over in UK6 Jul 2021 22:16
Dsmith, you say its farcical, but whats the alternative? Seriously? How much can you spend on testing and for how long? Say we test everybody, everyday for 4 weeks and eradicate it in the UK. Then someone goes abroad and brings it it in and after a while we are back to square one but several billion poorer.
Thats the dilema the govt (any govt) has.
The "best" of a crappy choice is to have a vaccine that reduces spread and helps dramatically against severe illness and death. At the same time stop reporting it as it scares everybody witless (literally). (The govt felt it had to overdo the scare tactics when there was no alternative but now there is, so they will dial it down.)
So if we take off our AVCT biased glasses and put ourselves in a "joe Bloggs" mindset what is needed is a "out of sight out of mind" policy. People become less fearful and society returns to normal. And if you think that is madness, then whats the alternative? Living constantly in a version of where we are now? is that sustainable either financially or socially?
So part of the dialing it down is to reduce the perceived necessity for testing. (Why would you test for something thats not that important?)
Maybe AVCT will still be the global test of the world, but at some time that window closes altogether.
Remember its nothing, nothing to do with cases, but simply hospitilsation. It doesn't matter whether you agree with that or not but thats the reality and thats what you base investment decisions on. Where is is the market, how big is the market, do I have a product for the market. But crucially, does the market want my product?
Its still in the balance but Its tipping (imo) away from AVCT presently.