Member Info for wyndrum

The problem with mass testing is that we (the UK or globally) have neither the capacity or the resource to do it for any period of time.
currently on a google, there are just under 12m at school (only up to year 11) in the UK Test them 7 days a week = 84m test per week at £5 per test = £420m per week (That's about £22b per year extra on an annual educational budget total of £92b)

How long do we do that for? 1 month, 6 months , a year? and then what? we won't eradicate it so infections will just start growing again and all that money and all that testing will have been for nothing.

Why would you test any more (if you are the govt?) Its done. There is no urgency to get rid of the Innova test. All the "pilot" sporting events have been done with this extremely poor test, and yet, we are where we are, so I can't see why there will be much change.

The govt now want MSM to stop reporting infections and deaths. (apparently it is spreading fear... I can't quite see that horse anymore standing here at the stable...)

It seems clear that govt policy rests on the efficacy of the vaccines (which presumably will only improve with as more info comes in) and which are already more effective than could have been hoped for at the outset and anti-virals for treatment which are due soon.

So if the govt are not fussed and that's the only conclusion that I can see that fits the reality, then we are down to the public/companies buying the test. At £5 per pop no one will test to see if they are asymptomatic.. (Why would you, family of 4 feel fine so lets burn £20 just to prove it.) In which case by the time you feel ill, you will probably take a few days off work like you do for most very heavy colds (or longer if its flu), until you feel better.

Remember there will be no stats on the MSM to let you know how good or bad it is in the wider community, so it won't take long for no one to really care. Out of sight out of mind.

Talk about a garden path that we have all been walked down....

Fear not D its Eve or we are not getting that type of matttress at all. (She is quite set on Eve....) and fair point about the profit update RNS.

Hi UNB, well that is the $64m question!

CC said in the last update, profit not forecast until end of 2022 and current Bank balance would be eaten into.

This naturally makes the market nervous hence the drip drip slide. (Unfortunately my stop loss kicked in on the first drop and due to the excessive spread on this stock I did not want to risk any further depreciation of capital, which is frustrating as in the normal run of things I would have hung in but I knew that (large spread) when I dipped my toe back in.)

So the chart is not encouraging but hey ho, who cares. If Eve surprise the market then it will likely turn out to be the bottom. But I think that's what Eve have to do ie "Surprise" everyone. (And as we know CC tends to be pretty level, so if it was going to surprise then a profit upgrade may or would hve preceded the TU?)

Is that likely? Possibly, but I agree with D that France might be a little early to draw any inference as to its likely success. Has on-line stayed strong... this is really difficult yes generally, Eve in particular?
(Mrs W is still keen to get the Eve hybrid but she wants to find a shop to try it out first. Now, is that indicative of a bigger typicality, or just one miniscule tiny bit of feedback which is of no import. Its one thing to buy on line faced with no choice but...….)

Realistically Eve have to show some sort of growth from somewhere and that the new bank balance (whatever it is) is still more than sufficient to carry on with the new marketing/sales drive. If that is the case then 5p maybe would seem realistic. Obviously, if it looks a bit more "knife edge" for funds to be enough then the SP will further as the market perceives some sort of fund raise will be probably necessary.

Blimey, I don't know.... easy to make a decent argument either way. Probably as with all things Eve, no real change from her (CC) last update and therefore no real change to the SP and we have to wait for another update! :0))

ST, this really is it.

I posted that 21.5p was the key figure (several times)( you could have taken a slightly risker view and bought in at the bottom of the TR when it did not close below that low, as I did by added to my holding by selling stock that I think will do well, but I might have enough time to make money here and then transfer back later.)

I posted that in advance .I outlined the possibilities as I saw them but said I did not think once through 21.5p it would come back to retest it. it didn't. I don't know what you want from me/TA but I said all of this in advance over the last few weeks, But really it doesn't matter to anyone.

(FA: Ok: what's the price of helium in 12 months, 24 months 5 years? will this find depress the price? what will the political situation be in Tanzania over the next 5 years? what if civil war broke out or the current war spread or the present President is removed in a coup? (or just does not get re-elected). How does that all pan out for foreign interests?
What if the geology makes the other sites not commercially viable, or even this one?

Oh, Yeah FA, tells you all that in advance. "Oh but Wyn ,thats investing, based on what we know and the research I have done we all be fine".... Whatever.

I don't mind people not agreeing with TA but its not as haphazard as it is criticised to be, and the fact some people don't see that does mean they don't actually understand it, and B: if only FA was as "reliable" as it is always meant to be when offered up as the alternative. Why would anybody ever do anything else.....? It would so easy to become millionaires: Just go on to any BB and follow the herd.

But as I say these BB's ultimately are not the place for TA as its a hobby for FA types to search around for links and similar situations and Post about them, then coming together to all agree that after all, this may or may not turn out to be a good investment.

You might not see the irony, but it's writ pretty large to me.

Its alright Phantom save your breath, i' m gone.

I don't want this to get like AGL where you just go personal and the BB suffers.

GLA

No offence taken SG.

TA is a vey Marmite thing and I can't do anymore than I have to try and explain the mechanics of it and how it can be helpful in timing entry and exit.

GLA

except ND i have made 50% return in a week based on TA. with all the news that has and hasn't been announced and may not be announced tomorrow or any time in the coming week

But lets just agree to disagree. GLA

Ok, so what you are saying then, is that the current SP only can ever represents the past and does not reflect the future news flow of the stock in question at all?

That's fine I don't mind what you think, (obviously, I just am anxious to make sure I understand your reasoning as to why i don't need to explain TA to you.

Nd, "All nonsense of course as the SP will be totally news driven over this period"
I'm running out of ways to explain TA but i'll try again:

All stocks are news driven, all of them at any given time, either actual or rumored.

All the SP is is a graphical representation of all known info out there, all sentiment, all actual, all expected news, good and/or bad, every forecast from 12p to £10 the political situation, everything.

Its all in the SP right now.

TA is just another way of trying to forecast the likely value of the company but over the short(er) term, whereas FA, typically, takes a longer view.

Neither is fool proof (clearly). And the investor can decide which timescale is more relevant to him/her. Often both, as some LTH may want to de-risk now asap at, for the sake of plucking a number out of the air, 30p while still expecting to hold for the next 5 years.

TA can't "predict" anything, nor can FA. What both do, actually on the same principle, is in similar situations historically what is MOST LIKELY to come next.

FA can look at geology, other miners, similar landscapes in as similar situations as possible, work out how often or not they are successful, see typically what the risk is and how it de-risks as certain milestones are successfully achieved etc etc. but its based on what has happened before to predict what is likely to come next.

TA does exactly the same but looks at peoples emotional responses as translated into SP movement, to this type of stock that is high risk, all or nothing, miner blah blah etc.

I never quite understand peoples absolute dismissiveness of TA when it is so similar to FA that its not even a branch of it, It is the same thing just presented differently.

Nd makes a good point that is always worth remembering, whether on this share or any other:

What will be, will be.

Many boards (and this one in particular I think) are good natured, and by that I mean posters are genuinely passing on their thoughts & experiences in good faith to the benefit of others with less knowledge who might find it helpful.

Having said that, all we do are doing is passing time, chewing the fat, waiting for events that (in fact we don't have that much direct knowledge of), unfold.

Whatever we say, optimistic or not, won't actually affect the amount of Helium under the ground or its commercial viability of extracting it.

This is a risky game, buying and selling shares whatever method the individual chooses to use. Always only bet what you can comfortably afford to use: I know its been said a million times and I know its being a bit of an Eyeore, but we have been in a particularly easy bull market over the last 15 months and even before, you look back and the pandemic has been a temporary blip in a much wider bull run. Its much harder to make money in a Bear market so still with my Eyeore hat on, don't assume too much too early.
Just my 2 cents and apologies for no doubt telling 99.99% here how to suck eggs......

Well, just as a quick aside, for those who don't "get" TA but might be reading this, look at the thread and the "predictions" and look at the chart, its been text book. (obviously coincidence is always a potential alternative, so its up to the individual as always).

For me I keep it very simple on these small stocks and the only indicator I overlay onto the SP action is the RSI, and whether its self fulfilling or not, I find it very reliable.

The good news is that the RSI, at the close today, is approaching over bought territory but is not quite there yet (74.88: anything over 80 is "over bought" and suggests a fall is imminent)
So two things: to bear in mind: it can go over and sustain(for a while) an RSI reading of above 80 but it won't do it for long before falling. And it doesn't HAVE to get to over bought before falling.

Whats next....?
It is (RSI) high quite high now and some sort of close below this current level is clearly possible, however the upward momentum is still very strong and there is room for more appreciation first, so I think its just about more likely than not that we will have another up day Monday.

(Had we definitely finished today "overbought" and at about 27.75p would have done it I think), then I would have expected no RNS on Monday, precipitating a bit of disappointment and the SP falling a little to allow the RSI to unwind and then a the RNS to be released on Tuesday and push us way up again. But that's mixing FA & TA and that way lies ruin! :0))

So in conclusion: the chart is unfolding at the moment and its not an area a chartist would probably buy in at right now, its just too close to being overbought and retracing.

As I say this does not mean it won't go up Monday or even rocket, but for chartists, its an odds game and the odds say be patient for a probable lower entry. If it does rocket then, c'est la vie, you can't win them all, but the whole point of TA ,is that it is a "system" and if you break the rules of the system, then sooner or later you start losing more often than you win.

The chartists who have patiently waited, either bought in on the bottom at 18p this week or a bit later when it FINALLY broke 21.5p, so the last couple of days have been vindication of what they do and therefore are not at this stage, looking to buy further. (Some may want to take profits but if they are like me, they are applying basic charting methods to time entry and exit rather than to "trade" the stock and be that cute.)

On the other hand there are plenty of people out there far more adept than me at this, so what do I know!!)

GLA

D, I don't think Jack does conversation......

"The 30p target is long overdue. " well, only according to you....

"With now momentum building, the SP should set a new floor of 30p." How can we have a "new floor at 30p" when we haven't even had it as a ceiling yet! :0))

Thanks for the spelling lesson Jack. I'm not sure what you are referring to re: the boot is on the other foot?

Steve, leave him alone, we can't all look like George Clooney, (which he has absolutely nailed, by the way!)

Blu, Its not quite that black and white. But it is a game, for sure .

Trading by and large is done on indices. One of the things I have noticed since I came away from day trading is that the belief (and maybe its true), from investors is that there are always traders in their stock mismanaging the SP. As I have stumbled into a few stocks over the last months to ultimately hold for a while to see how they pan out I would simply be amazed if anybody was trading these stocks. There might be a few exceptions where the volatility is enough with the volume available with tight enough spread, but really these titchy minnows on AIM, well, they just would not be on a Traders radar, at all, ever....The smaller the stock the easier it is for MM to shake traders around.

But for all I know, its just gamblers, calling themselves traders. I don't know... or care Ha! GLA!

I get all that guys, but even traders don't randomly pick shares.

The only way this particular stock increases in value is if the chance of drilling success increases. its pretty binary. This is not a trading stock per se because the risk is far too high.

Maybe some will try and ride it and be cute (and good luck with that but I think its at the margin), but I think here (as elsewhere), too many investors don't really understand Trader mentality. Basically by and large we are risk averse. Its not just about charts, its as much about money management.

We typically work on smaller margins of success being repeated. We can't afford to that get many wrong if we are to make money out of it.

One of the reasons so many fail is that the "gambling" element is attractive to er… gamblers, and that type of mind-set, maybe counter-intuitively, is not conducive to being a successful Trader

(Just for clarity I am not "trading" this stock I have targets that I will sell at but that is dependent on HE1 being successful.

I have used charts (so far) successfully, to time various levels of entry.

"Most investors are motivated by profit, and not losing too much, rather than discovering Helium"

well, then unless they just randomly stuck a pin in the aim listed companies available, why would they have bought any HE 1 to begin with, if not in the belief/hope they would strike helium?

maybe we should just wait for the first drill result?

I don't think its a tree shake XV, on the intraday chart it was showing over bought and its just had to unwind a bit to make room for further gains, (well, that's how I see it.)