Member Info for wyndrum

Thats pretty speculative Bella.

What about the II's that bought in at the 120p 20 months ago, how do they feel?

I think we have just to accept this is going to be a volatile share now where just a 1p move is nearly 2% which will make trading rife I would imagine.

The pressure looks to remain downward presently if only because if MM.'s tweets and posts have done nothing to halt the slide then its going to take something a bit more dramatic to give a proper reversal legs.

(And on that point of Myles, with his following and bullish posts, if they don't influence the SP, then nothing said here does, so maybe we can put that one to final rest.)

Its too early to say yet but the market is continuing to re-value AVCT with no LFT income. Normally on falls this large there is an overshoot so I am reasonably confident that at some stage there will be a bounce upwards. (its just knowing where and when!) Thats why I will continue to drip feed in I think)

So as i say, looks to remain volatile for a little while before going quiet.

The next thing I imagine will be the results and most importantly will be the "Post results" section.

AS will need to be (if he can) pretty bullish.

I think his job is in the balance now, if not already decided. (Certainly his body language to me in the Paul Hill interview looked disengaged, so I would not be surprised that he may stand down with the results.

Anyway, just my thoughts.

No need to apologise Dave, but it will be fun to see where each stock's SP is in 6 months.

Hopefully, both over 100p

Apre, Knowing whether a share will go up in value is a crap shoot.

You pick yours based on looking a longer time ahead than me.

I use crowd psychology to indicate what I think most likely will happen next. But its still a crap shoot,

I understand that when i buy a stock I have no idea if it will rise or fall. But I look at the odds to see what the chances are.

You think i am a delusional fake...well, whatever... Its a free country.

Paul, I don't know if you have noticed but I get the occasional bit of stick posting so when you referred to my methods as using a crystal ball, I assumed you were just being sarcastic.

So sangs, the lower the price the better the risk?

All you are saying is that its better to bet on an outsider rather than the favourite, because if the outsider comes in you will make more winnings.

The lower the "valuation" the less likely is the chance of success as viewed by the market . I don't understand how you don't understand.

Good luck

Paul, if you just want to poke me with a stick knock yourself out but the idea is to make money buying stocks and the clock is ticking so time is indeed money. If you are happy waiting years to turn a profit then that's perfectly fine.

While this stock fell 30% in a week I made 7% in another.

I have transferred some back into here as I did not expect further falls to be this quick.

I think this stock could be very volatile over the next days and weeks and I will try and profit from it if it is.

Sorry if that offends you.

Ok, You don't accept my point that the valuations are completely arbitary.

I just don't understand your logic that today its too expensive at 60p but if it was 40p you would buy, even though the outcome of success or failure would still be exactly the same.

If you are going to invest say, £10k, then whatever price you pay you need the tech to work. otherwise you still lose your £10k no matter if the SP was 60p or 6p when you bought it.

Except its not "over valued". thats my point. Its arbitary.

If one is valued higher than another it just means sentiment is stronger in that particular company to be a commercial success than another. Its irrelevant what their potential profits or market might be. Its just the odds of them actually at some point, delivering.

You can't "value" any of these companies when they have yet to develop a commercial platform.

All that you are saying is that more people think it likely that AVCT will be successful rather than another Bio-tech, and that leads to a higher market cap for AVCT. it "proves" nothing one way or other.

Sangs, that not what we were talking about.

I was replying to you assertion that the stock currently is overpriced.

Nothing to do with whether or not some are sitting on a paper loss.

Sangs

The valuation of the company is simply the amount of shares in circulation multiplied by the current price. And while that states the very obvious thats all there is to it in AVCT's case

The tech is not proven to work yet at a commercial level. If it does then the SP will be worth multiples of what it is now. If it fails then the company most likely will cease to trade on AIM.

The SP is just working on sentiment and people betting on whether it will work or not. So its impossible to "value" AVCT so its equally impossible to state its either over (or under) valued.

All you are saying that if it fell to less than a £100m cap then you would be tempted to buy, as though somehow being less than a £100m cap improves its chance of success?

Doesn't make any sense to me.

a week ago on the good news of the dose escalation, the SP was 90p, so this price is a huge devaluation from where it was so very recently.

The potential for a re-rate is only 6 months or so away, and if you think that the case for AVCT still exists then if funds allow, it might be a plan. to drip feed them into the stock on a monthly basis rather than all at once and if it keeps falling , well, at least you get to average down.

The cash position is not anywhere near as bad as I thought it would be so perhaps "near term" is longer away than I even thought from the interview. (Quite why AS did not mention the ACTUAL figures they put on the slide, I have no idea?)

At some stage the short will be closed and that should give the SP a lift from whatever level it has found by then.

Dai, AVCT's LFT is a long story with many twists and turns but the long and the short of it is that it was too slow in getting approval and missed the mass testing boat and subsequently in my view was going to be to expensive to compete with other cheaper available tests,

I don't use these BB's other to read and comment on some interesting (ith a small "i") comments and remarks.

I am not using FA to decide my course of action on buying or selling.

But events will make me think or re-consider and that will make me more cautious in my trading.

The biggest conflict I can have is if the chart tells me one thing but my reasoning on events contradicts it. But that's my problem :0))

dai, just a few examples where FA said they were slam dunks (remember based on research etc)
ADV, HE1 (last time) and AVCT with its LFT.

All had experienced BoD's, all had positive RNS's, all had very enthusiastic BB's.

All had catastrophic falls from their highs. In hindsight you can see that they were risky, but all the smart, well-researched posters, many with experience in the field using FA, never saw any of it coming.

The common denominator is that the SP advanced on sentiment (ie the EXPECTATION) that further gains were GOING to happen and risk was perceived to be minimal to non-existent.

To not take the profit when its their staring you in the face is a question that investors who did not cash in, should ask themselves why.

TA is all about having a plan or system, (that the individual has back tested to prove it works enough times to run at a profit). if you don't stick to it, its not really a plan.

Each to his own as always. But if nothing else, no one should ever over commit in any circumstance. Ever

Just my opinion and DYOR.

Good luck

I think this is pointless with you muscles but some others might find it sort of interesting: Anyway here goes:

There are 2 ways of picking a stock, Fundamental and Technical Analysis (FA & TA) FA looks at the company, its market, what it does, profit/loss, balance sheet contracts etc and decides if it looks undervalued. Typically the timescale is relatively long term ,1 year plus.
TA measures sentiment and that is represented in the SP and graphically shown in chart patterns and works most effectively over a short time frame. It works on the basis that crowds are predictable and will likely do predictable things when stimulated correctly. Money, with Fear & Greed thrown in work a treat.

Nether system is remotely fool proof. People who use TA will typically buy and sell much more frequently to try and profit from likely moves in the SP and expect to take small profits but achieve these small gains more frequently than a Long term holder might achieve.
Its possible to mix both methods. (I find it adds a layer of unnecessary complexity, so I stick to TA)

What most people who deride TA (and thats fine, by the way, each to his own,) always ignore 2 things. One is TA is an odds based approach, it tries identify what is most likely. Its not predictive in the sense that it will fore tell the future.

And the other big thing with TA is money management. If you are going to trade frequently you don't want big losses otherwise you are out of the game. MM is as important as the chart itself. Without good MM, the chartist is unlikely to be successful.

I have a simple but for me effective money management system: I sell 30% of my original purchase when it rises to 30% profit and sell another 30% of the original holding when it hits 50% profit. That way I have recouped 84% of my original stake and am therefore risking 16% cash balance but am holding 40% of the original shares.

It helped me offset the loss on ADV and helped me also here last time.

TA&FA are completely inter-related. How can they not be?

(Any unexpected news that surprises the general market will by definition surprise the holders of the stock whatever method they use.)

Anyway, good luck.

it sounds as though nothing much will happen over the next 4 months other than revealing details of who will do what and when.

As to how that will affect the SP is harder to guess.

DM carried on about the project being more de-risked than ever due to the new survey data and all the success of the previous drill.....which presumably will be "reassuring" to investors.

So, on the one hand not much news to come out spread over 4 months so SP could drift, on the other hand could be a good place to start stake building/topping up/getting on board, which should both support and push the SP upwards,

My best guess, based on the recent chart is a floor/support at 9.95p as probably the low before any news.

The upside is that if we hold above 11.2 for any length of time (given how close the current SP is to it), a few days, say, then that will develop into a new, higher floor and would open up a trading range of 11.2p- 14p.

By the look of the last spike it will take some good news to break 14p.

DYOR etc etc.

Ding Ding !..... round Two... come out swingin'

well, sellers won't sell at the price buyers want, and it looks like buyers won't pay above 194.5p...

One of them needs to blink

(and when I say "one", I mean the buyers...)

Hi Trek,

Just wanted to say thanks for your posts. Always helpful and accompanied with what I think is good advice.

ATB

Pat, May I ask: What are your expectation for the SP?

Cheers

Because Porky when you say :
"Its a high risk/ high reward play Always has been - No change, why certain posters feel the need to remind, are you short or something???"

It undermines the most basic rule of investing which is not to over commit..

And Greed & Fear are what most PI's are susceptible to.

So its always worth repeating imo.