Member Info for wyndrum

I'm not looking for an argument Apre but when you say: "....that is because when this BB is at it best, it is pretty hard to beat for quality research generously shared by some smart and dedicated posters. They deserve (and I know the decent folks already know this and show this) genuine appreciation for their part in holding this together."

The SP has fallen from 275p to 60p. How has all that research by genuine posters helped in any way, shape or form?

You are not referring to anyone who sounded any warming bells are you? You are referring to posters who basically said this stock would only prosper.

I don't mind them expressing their views and opinions, I too believe was all done in the utmost of good faith, but please, surely recognise they have been hopelessly wrong thus far, and may have contributed to other posters over committing at higher levels. I am not sure that is worthy of the congratulation you so generously heap on them.

(PS: When you have falls like this, (in any stock) for some reason it then attracts "new" posters who only want to gloat over others misfortunes which I dislike as much as you, but we do have our own culprits who also can't help themselves to do exactly the same to other posters on other stocks and are equally deserving of your criticism).

Porky, when you say ". I consider the upside potential far far outweighs any downside risk"

If the downside risk is 100% you lose your money, what does the upside have to be?

I mention this because ADV was meant to have an 85% success rate of drill and when I mentioned HE1 over there and perhaps maybe there were risks at ADV, they were to a poster, adamant that you could not compare ADV with its 85% expected success rate to HE1 which was far far more risky as it was an exploratory drill. (ADV failed and is basically bust.)

Plus HE1 has had one go at this and failed.

Now, I am here too hoping this time round it will be a success but I am interested in how you think the risk of complete loss is balanced against the upside?

ND, traders don't need news. in fact if its a short term trade you want an absence of news so that the chart patterns and indicators will likely be more reliable.

But trading on aim stocks is rarer than you think, (or perhaps better to say, the volume of shares traded by traders is smaller than you think) and as a result they don't move the SP.

The whole "traders trading" thing is an emotional crutch PI's go to on these types of BB's to sooth their anxiety that the SP has fallen (even though traders having bought, actually want the SP to go up, but when it does that will never be due to "traders".).

I can't emphasize too much how driven most Pi's are by emotion in their buying and selling decisions.

The trading range has tightened up since 01/02. from 10.8p -11.28p
often a break outside a narrow range leads to a more explosive move.

Fingers crossed its up.

Are you seeing anything SD?

I understand J, that buyers will push the price down, what surprises me is that there is still a seller out there continually feeding these buyers.

The SP was around 7% higher on January 6th when, even given our collective hopeless guessing game of "release date" nevertheless with an "early2022" date officially published meant the clock was ticking and now when it really must be very very soon, there is a seller who is very relaxed in just off loading every single day....

Oh well.....

so why is the sp going down then?

Rich, you think? the spread pretty much negates any profit manageable.

well, as you say fingers crossed. A good sign will be if there is a big spike (6-10p) as it will show there is demand behind the scenes to get in at what then be perceived as the low and all the sellers are already out.

If it slowly rises then it would suggest there is limited demand and interest (at this stage).

I think the shorts must be, surely, thinking about closing out.....

I see what yo did there D! I would be much more emotionally attached to EVE, if my last couple of forays into their shares had a produced a profit!

As for waking up refreshed, waking up is good enough for me given the alternative :0))

Well, who cares about him.... I was meant to be drip feeding in over the next 4-6 months and the fall I expected over that time has taken 2 days....so 2 tranches in already.....

well, paul, the SP has risen since then....

"..enjoy the part of being an part owner here and enjoy the benefits a lot of customers report to their improved sleep etc?"

and some wonder why i don't care about the company but just the SP... :0))

my drip feed is being accelerated by the speed of the drop and it took a while just now to buy a relatively small amount.

Maybe capitulation has been reached?

Bella, i think its likely we will be behind the curve. Flu mutates every year and they tweak the vaccine accordingly for the following year.

We have just had first hand experience where a mutation rendered the test U/S. All that work and cost for nothing.

Again, we are back (as always) to outcomes and costs. Flu is less harmful to the younger/fitter population.

The cost of the test could be an issue as it has to get back development costs and you tend to know you have flu once you have it, so again do you need a test to tell you that? and to what purpose, so you isolate?

If we are not going to isolate for covid (and we will see how that pans out), then obviously there is no overwhelming need or point in testing for it. "So you have it, so what?", type of thing.

I think it will be about any future pandemics that the testing would likely make a comeback. The knowledge gained in all aspects of research & development, the processes that need to be put in place asap, etc, that when AVCT could be back in the pole position, but that will likely be years away if for no other reason the world will not be quite so quick i think, to shut down and would therefore downplay/ignore anything discovered simply because the cost of the solution is too expensive.

Difficult to know how this will play out but my thinking is that Putin has pushed his luck to get some sort of concession from the west but they are calling his bluff and telling him to invade. (They certainly seemed to increase the rhetoric that even the Ukrainian President did not recognise).

I think it would suit the west for Russia to get embroiled in a war. They put no troops up but supply the weapons and intelligence and get to sanction Russia economically as well as the cost of a war both economically and from a PR pov and it depletes Russia's capabilities elsewhere in the world.
It won't look good on Russian TV if it is prolonged and Ukrainian nationalists start blowing train stations in the mother country for instance?

I think it would suit the west very well for this to go ahead.

Pharma, FOMO is very much a PI thing. Its just shorthand for emotional decision making .

Its very overrated imo. (Large moves towards the very close of play can be the sign of leaked news and the bigger players get in) , but otherwise PI's don't normally have the fire power to affect the SP.

Paul,

I think it really is dead in the water. Certainly the market does, and AS himself said they had not got a fix yet and even then had no idea if it would need new regulatory approval, which is pretty clear to me that there is no real work going on to get it done with no urgency and he compounded that view by basically saying it was an opportunity to try and get the cost of production down, which is another way of saying its too expensive in the commoditised market that now exists.

I also think that it is very clear that AS tends to go quiet when there is "bad" news. We won't get an update on it now I imagine unless he is absolutely pressed. It will be dropped the way Bams was and all the other examples of ties up's/partnerships that proved unfruitful.

It all hinges now on AVA600k and this looks an ok level, give or take 10p to 15p to start drip feeding in because this could easily be a 10 bagger in 18 months and an awful lot more over the next 5 years, (making one very important assumption of course!)

D, I think as the valuation is so small a £10m offer would probably do it, so you could do it behind the scenes with CC directly and present it as a fait accompli to Pi's (imo)

As for Snow, it certainly moves about! The new floor is $283 so your timing wasn't too bad at all!

I think CI, it must be a game of chicken to a degree:

If a suitor is in the wings (VERY BIG ASSUMPTION) how long do you wait before making a move? Do you let it deteriorate to below 2p (say 1.5p) and get it for around 3p meaning the company is in real trouble, or if that was the case, pick it up even cheaper if it ceased trading? Or get in now while there are more assets? The longer the wait increases the chance of a turn around and therefore a higher price to pay?

I am assuming there are (significant) economies of sale for a suitor, but are there?

It is starting to get into sharp focus now (12 months?) I think.

I think it was Emma but they have a Valentines sale on now or a winter one, (I can't remember) but given you have Black Friday (which goes on a month, a winter/Christmas sale and spring sale and summer sale, it does not leave a lot of room for full price sales. And why would you do that when you only have to wait a few weeks for another sale anyway?

This market looks to be getting even more cut throat which implies (to me) that there are too many players in the game and that there is a lot of over-supply.

Certainly EVE is cheap as a company now. Its capitalised at between £5-6M with nearly that much cash in the bank, plus stock.

I I think 5p would do it.

If not now for a take over... when? (imo, dyor)