Member Info for wyndrum

just for clarification D, I use stops but not pre-programmed. I have a level that if the SP falls to I sell, but its not an instruction lodged into the platform, its very hands on.

Cheers

Hi D, no took a 5% hit back when ever it was when I effectively got stopped out. (Thank goodness for stops!)

Its a thing , even today, that never stops surprising me how far a company's SP can fall. 420p a share just a couple of years ago making 100's of millions and expanding like crazy buying brands at rock bottom prices and now look where they are.

Thats what keeps me away from the fundamentals. No one predicted it, no analyst, no indication from the BoD, no one.

And all the relevant BB could say, Stick with it, all the fundamentals are good, soon be back to 500p a share. Buy now and get the bargain of the century..etc etc etc.

And its not that rare thing......

Right now I have only one retail stock and thats CCH that I think will recover strongly and can pay out a dividend so I have put in an ISA to get a bit of slow and steady as retirement looms.

As I say, I have a pretty bleak outlook on the UK (especially), right now. I fear that some have never experienced a recession and don't realise that the govt of the day can't actually fix every problem that confronts us peeps.

Still...it could be worse :0))

Neut, "So your saying, no matter what news that comes out, once its in TA Overbought range, it will stay in overbought until it reverses no matter the news?"

I'm just saying that the SP always has 2 choices, TA attempts to increase the odds of when to buy and sell.

In my experience when a sock is 80 or above using the RSI the odds are in favour of a fall (90%) within a day or 2.

However , there is always a chance it will continue defy gravity but at some stage it will fall.

IMO. timing is everything in this game and I have found TA a useful and profitable system to help improve on that aspect.

Clearly its not for everyone.

Neut, always the SP can do 2 things, go up or down. TA attempts to show what's most likely. So nothing is certain (would that it was!)

In answer to your specific question if the SP is already in overbought territory and an RNS is released then we are back to the SP having 2 choices.

But, and this is where the SP simply reflects human psychology, the reason the SP is "overbought" is on the expectation of good news coming or being made official.

Then the RNS drops and it is good news, but if the good news is only what has already been previously priced in then the SP can and probably will fall as buyers have made their money, the news wasn't beyond what was expected so time to bank profits and the SP retraces/falls.

Or the SP rises further still, as the good news is even better than expected and it pushes it yet further into an over bought range.

So always 2 options but what are the odds?

The SP was 41p then it went to 140p in a few weeks. Thats an awful lot of good news built in very quickly waiting for the official confirmation. It hasn't arrived yet and so people have sold and banked their profit.

Now, some buyers will return based simply on the view that if it was 140p last week this fall is overdone, or maybe using indicators, it looks like a good entry point for a reasonable expectation of 140p being aimed for and therefore a 25-30% short term gain could be on offer and so it goes on and on.

yes I agree without the full picture its tricky to draw sustainable conclusions.

However greater sales and greater profits reads well for them, but the margins may be very small and it could be the large scale of sales that allows the model to work in a way that EVE have yet to attain.

For EVE Its hard to see a surprise jump in sales based on recent figures and statements.

Its all a bit late in the day now anyway I imagine, but I have a horrible feeling things are going to get pretty ****ty, pretty quickly in the UK economy going on the back of talking to a few companies and the costs pressures they are under. (They all said you cannot over-estimate the effect of increasing energy costs to not just their profitability but their ability to stay in business..)

Add a wage spiral, inflation and a big squeeze on disposable income and it all looks a bit bleak to me.

Jack, the thing about retraces is its just a term to use for a share that has climbed to a level where its likely to fall back.

From a TA point of view there are various points lower down (called supports) where it might go down to re-test investor sentiment. This often happens.

However, in this case the move up was rapid and large and therefore it got into a technical "over bought" situation that went on for longer than normal in terms of trading sessions, which only reinforced the strong upward pressure.

As a result although it became increasing certain that a fall back was going to happen it was much harder to define to exactly where. This was not a reversal but simply an unwinding of an over bought SP. As a result it was an easy decision to sell but much trickier to know where to buy back in given the recent volatility.

140p remains a substantial celling or resistance point at the moment but all being well the SP will climb towards it to have another attempt to break through

TA wise a close above 11.5p would put the 14p spike in play as a target. There is an argument that 10.25p is a floor now.

So we are just idling within a trading range presently. (DYOR etc)

my frustration is with the posts as I tried (unsuccessfully) to point out.

its akin to me to talk about how much the lottery jackpot is worth and how much money i will make and I have not actually even bought the ticket yet.....

Its Ok ITV, as you say its just an exchange of views while we wait for the story to unfold but the fact they have done so much pre drill work as you mention and still no drill program suggests to me they either have a cash issue or the imaging is actually inconclusive as where exactly to drill.

My best guess is that there is a cash problem and the delay is most likely getting funding rather than a drill company as securing loans or issuing shares often take a long time for T's to be crossed and I's to be dotted.

But like us all here, I am just guessing.

Morning all,

D highlights Emma's increase in Sales & Profits.: Is that seen as a a positive or a negative for EVE?

not a DAY trading stock... ie you close your position before the close of play.

Thats the way it works BITL, yes, surprising news will reset a chart but most companies have long spells of no official news and the various movements are then based on sentiment (or basic psychology).

For it to work you need volatility and volume.

AVCT is not a "perfect" stock (its too small really and its not a day trading stock imo,) but it is surprisingly predictable.

The reason some here don't want to trade it is because they are concerned that they might miss out on surprise news (fear & greed). Its not mumbo jumbo but pretty standard human reaction to these stimuli.

Its also a sign of over commitment (thats the fear part).

Most here I would guess, accepts that's how our emotions can affect us with this stock, but can't make the leap to think that the SP graph can represent those actions in any sort of meaningful way. Yet that is all a chart is, a graphical representation of the current, usually predictable, sentiment.

ITV, I'm not frustrated with HE1. (it will be what it will be), but referring to EU meetings saying how critical HE is... so what? how does that affect the chance of success of HE1 and its drilling program?

until HE1 actually discover commercial helium then everything else is pointless.

If and when HE1 does find it, then we can start to discuss timelines to market, potential profit etc etc.

But right now we have not even got a rig organised to even start to see if its there (in commercial quantity.)

If it was such a slam dunk then HE1 would already been bought out. As the SP indicates this is a binary play that the market, currently, is veering on the side of failure rather than success. At the very least it is pricing in no drill this year, or a cash raise.

This stock has potential but thats all it is right now so I hope no one is over committed.

Oh for goodness sake my pet peeve resurfaces.....

Demand is an absolute irrelevance, the cost of helium is an absolute irrelevance!

HE1 need to drill and "discover" commercial helium. Until then there is absolutely nothing to discuss.

Right now all we know is they are late in confirming something as fundamental and basic as a 2022 drilling program.

Cart ...horse...whatever....

well, careful Rambo, because what's posted here apparently affects the SP ......

The Market does not do irony, opinion or speculation, just acts on whatever is posted....

UTMN, why is it important? Are you a day trader?

Apre, you said: "...You are right in what you say and Wyndy needs to be called out for deliberately attempting to spread negativity, presumably to suit an agenda."

This was with regard to why I said the the LFT had "failed" to another poster (hardly controversial) but you had to chime in. I responded with the points below that were relevant questions to you as to trying find out why you believed I was using "slippery semantics and manipulative, ego-driven FUD spamming..."

I responded with the post below which has now been deleted

"Did Avact have an LFT test? Do they have one presently? When will the new one be released? What price will it be sold at? what market is there for the test currently, and will price be a determinate in sales? Has TT taken place yet for the new test? How long will it take to get it authorised to sell across the Globe?
AVCT had UK and EU approval for the original test for 6 months. How much sales income was generated, was US approval ever granted?"

You refuse to engage when your opinion is asked to be justified by simply being rude and at the same time encourage others to be called out. No wonder you never draw the correct conclusion with a mind as narrow and closed as yours appears to be.

Apre,

Did Avact have an LFT test? Do they have one presently? When will the new one be released? What price will it be sold at? what market is there for the test currently, and will price be a determinate in sales? Has TT taken place yet for the new test? How long will it take to get it authorised to sell across the Globe?

AVCT had UK and EU approval for the original test for 6 months. How much sales income was generated, was US approval ever granted?

Ian, I mean failed in terms of "expected" income generated.

Even before it was withdrawn income was minimal. Why was that?

It may well be that a new more robust test will be put up for sale, but we are back to guessing the future.

And what do you know of the research that the "rest" are doing?

Its understandable here, but nevertheless the positive assumptions continually made with little or no knowledge of what is actually going on at Avcata let alone every other public and private diagnostics company begger's ((at least my) belief.

I have shares in the company and I hope it will do well so the SP appreciates, but I don't know if it will. For me, the risk against the potential reward given the markets they are trying to exploit, makes it worth the gamble. Just my opinion, DYOR etc

harty "We don’t need your advice." I was just responding to another poster's question.

A diversified portfolio is very sensible... why? because the individual realises that not every stock, on whatever selection basis, will be succeed to "plan". What does that tell you?

Diversification and not over committing funds are two golden rules, based entirely on the unknow outcome of the selections at the time.

You clearly know and understand this and apply those rules.

I would suggest many here don't.