Member Info for wyndrum

DD' have I missed something? Have we discovered Helium or are you suggesting we look at other stocks?

(Your not just highlighting that Helium is a rare and valuable commodity are you?) :0))

So what are you saying Doggy? Only a single point of view is valid and if its not yours they are trouble makers?

This BB suffers from "group think" as soon as an alternative view is posted, its not argued but instead normally the poster is verbally abused.

I have on many many occasions posted responses to posters that have simply lied about what I have said and when I have asked for them to justify their lies (which of course they can't), the threads tend to get deleted.

Yet the tone here is that the posters who deliberately insult other posters offer almost nothing in analysis other than to state the "bleedin' obvious"

Amateur investors should stay away from this BB

Hi D, I think using the EVE chart in hindsight its clear what was being "predicted" as most likely , but what makes the chart ineffectual in reality, has been the very large spread and often poor liquidity making "trading" very difficult by increasing the risk to unacceptable levels.

I have had some success over time with EVE but the last 3 trades were all loss making. and now, to me its binary. Bid or no bid, but there is no way of calculation the odds of a bid or not.

Its like a coin toss, its 50/50 but if tails has come 20 times in a row, is it still 50/50?

I can't begin to try and/or quantify any risk reward and the spread is huge. This is just a gamble for anyone who has bought since the statement and nothing to do with analysis.

Its not even as good as a roulette table where you KNOW its 50/50 (more or less)

Don't worry about me Tim, I have sold on the way down banking good profits and buying back from the recent lows.

My point was that as an investment BB the idea is, through an exchange of views and ideas, to make money. Bitl's remark was to suggest that any other method other than speculation on available company info, however scant (or not), was a bad thing and those views to be ignored and denigrated in advance of any actual comment or post.

Bitl, 11 months ago to the day, the SP was 125p.

Where exactly has all the careful and detailed research and swapping of like minded views got you?

The actual range in the last 11 months has been between 140p-41p.

There have been many opportunities to profit from these dramatic swings using other methods then just talking amongst yourselves on every imagined scenario that can be stretched from the most basic of company statements.

Just sayin

Given the scale of the fall I think some larger investors might be a bit pee'd off with AN just now.

Labouring the point of being dismissive of near term income has led to exactly what he professed he didn't want , ie SP volatility.

I see the way back, that when the next RNS that arrives with some income attached (however small), a statement can be added to rebalance the picture and to give some sort of indication to when if etc, funding will be needed.

What he has done is to give the impression, that this is a very, very long term project that after 10 years of waiting is only now beginning. The obvious implication being more money will be needed. Hence people bail until its clear as to when and how much is likely to be required.

The fact is that with FDA approval this is as de-risked as it can be, so there is I think, a pressing need now to give investors a better timeline on expectation of returns.

Morning D AVCT ...£10/share well, its possible if, (damn that word), the tech works. but it will take a while. Again if its really likely that the tech works and the sp will go to 1000p when confirmed in the next few weeks or so, then why is the SP 125p?

AGL, I waited all that time for the delayed FDA to be awarded and then it shoots up 50% to lose it all because of the stupid remarks of the CEO.....For it to recover they need some income and a new statement to show that maybe a cash raise is not needed either soon or if it is needed, the share dilution will not be "too bad".

At the moment I think people bailed on a big cash raise coming.

oh well, onwards and ever sideways.... :0))

I will always talk to you D!

Hi D:
(This is just a devil's advocate type of thing against your reasoned view:)

We don't know how much EVE are losing per month so it might be harder now to get to profitability even after stripping out costs. if its another mattress maker that is looking at EVE then maybe its market is under pressure too and given the uncertainty would rather keep cash in the bank?

The general feeling seems to be we are not at peak inflation yet so the cost base for all companies is still likely to increase and at the same time sales could fall further from what the figures say today.

As I say there must be an argument that might be cheaper just to let EVE go to the wall and pick up their market share for free. (its not like their customer base is that valuable given its an 8-10 yr replacement cycle?

Sorry violet, it looks like it was going to break out but fell back. the magic closing figure (for me) is 11.5p

still, always next week.....

Fear not, I have had my share of losses but what I am trying to get across is that being negative or positive is of no help in any sort of analysis.

Be objective as possible. Try and think of as many scenarios as possible, try as best you can to be realistic as to what is most likely so as to be able to at least try and assess the risk.

By all means buy at this price because if a buyer does emerge you may well double your money or more very quickly but what are the chances?

Say you think 4p is a fair buyout price, thats a 4 bagger. So why isn't the SP nearer that figure? What do you know that the market doesn't? Why is the SP at 1p?
Assume as a base line the market has the correct valuation on EVE and go from there.
Realise that you have no idea whats going on behind the scenes and always assume RNS's and interviews spin the info out in the very best possible light if not downright mis lead.

The more you think along those lines the more you begin to realise its all a crap shoot. Which is why you should have a price, that if the SP does fall, you sell up and preserve capital. If you lose your capital then you are out of the game. Preservation of capital is all.

By all means be ****ed at my attitude, but I have over the years made every mistake in the book and see, through many posts, the same mistakes being repeated and i try to highlight them when I see them. But by all means ignore or filter me. :0))

"Well let us all try to be as positive as poss!"

What, exactly, will that achieve?

Holding hands and singing Kumbaya is not likely to make any material difference to either EVE as a company or indeed its SP.

DGU, being "Positive" or "Negative " should have no bearing in deciding when or what stock to buy.

Moving on.

The BoD knew what the implications of the released RNS would be. They are not stupid and they know how important words are in this type of situation. To believe anything else is imo, folly.

Therefore, if they could get a bank loan, they would have, if they have an interested buyer, they would inform the market, if it was a case of re-organising the company (lay-offs, curtailing expansion, reducing costs etc), they would have already done it.

What you seem unable to accept, by your posts, is that by offering the company up for sale is a desperate move. The market knows this. You simply don't do it if there is any other way.

The fact that this RNS follows on so quickly from the march update simply highlights the dramatic deterioration in the outlook over the last few months.

(FWIW, My take on the failed US investor was to probably wind up the business and relocate, maybe to the US, sack all the staff, wipe the slate clean but keep the name, website and customer list and effectively start again with lower overheads and maybe push it harder in the US market? That wasn't acceptable to CC.)

(It must have been pretty drastic for Eve to terminate discussions. I would have thought.)

DGU, I have been out for a few months as I tend to make very quick decisions on this stock due to the large spread. Also with this one I will sell on a spike as its so unpredictable.

As many here know, I rely on the SP as a good indicator of the underlying state of any company.

SP's don't continually fall and value the company less and less if everything is going well.

Aim, I have been on this BB for some years and have blown hot and cold depending on the RNS's at the time, but at all times I think have said its a high risk share and certainly over the last 12 months have warned that time is running out and the odds of EVE not making it were increasing.

D, I think they were about 1600p (or maybe more?) a share at one stage in the tech boom and finished at about 4p, (again I think), before being bought out privately. They were a disruptive technology with so many, many commercial and financial applications and at the time when they were bought out, it seemed very fishy as it seemed shareholders got really, really screwed.

Never made any money, plenty of bullish RNS's over the period and then......, oh well....thats how you learn.

EVE, in its way is very similar which is why I am anxious to at least highlight the potential of the other side of the coin here.

There could well be a buyer for EVE and the SP shoots up, but then it again it might not.

I think the market is pricing in failure and anyone buying in now is just gambling on a white knight emerging.

Again, I think common sense tells you that EVE's BoD would have already explored likely/obvious suitors prior to the RNS and the fact they worded the RNS as they did suggests no one was interested and therefore increases the odds of one not being found.

So what DGU?, should everyone buy shares in DFS?

DFS has a wide portfolio and makes as well as buys in, many product lines and has financial scale. They are already making significant profits and can weather the expected down turn.

EVE run (and always have) at a loss are almost out of money (again), and have a narrow product line.

The comparison is not a good one imo.

You seem fixated that simply a different wording would have produced a different result on the RNS and seem to completely ignore the actual contents of the note.

(Some here may not have heard of a flat speaker company called NXT of 20 years or so ago, but this is, unfortunately very reminiscent of what happened to it.)

Hi D, it sure is a game.

I think it highlights the risks in investing in loss making companies for the long term.

Its always going to be a gamble that any of them turn the corner into profit. If they do of course, the gains tend to be above average, but its a much bigger risk.

I find the whole concept of long term much riskier than short term but that could just be my lack investment skill over the years.

What does tend to come through is that all the old cliches tend to be proven right: Don't over commit: have a wide diverse portfolio etc etc.

I have thought for a long time its hard to get rich quick, but not so hard slowly.

DGU,

I think the RNS was indicating that EVE are no longer in control of their own destiny.

I might be wrong but I read it as a profit warning and therefore asking for a buyer to come forward as an option suggests that without that, they are going to run out of money.

All the other bits are window dressing to show the potential of the brand to entice some interest.

I am presuming you don't see it that way?

Am i right in thinking that you think if they stop spending in France and Belgium and stop discounting, cut staff pay or make some redundant they would run at a profit and there would have been no need for the RNS?

I am not a Tax expert but I assume the £17.5m offset is against profits?

So the "new" EVE would not pay any CT until a total of £17.5m profit had been generated.
Again I am not sure of Corporation tax rates on large profits, or what constitutes large profits, but its about to be 25% on "small" companies so if the actual benefit of the £17.5m tax break is 25%, then that would be £4.375m?

Any corporate accountants with us?