Member Info for wyndrum

Wiggly it was a general comment on how the market is and typical reaction to it.

Not every fund manager sits on every stock they hold for ever. Money gets moved around to get the best returns.

It is no particular indication on AVCT or its long term prospects.

I would have thought it is common sense that with a deteriorating economy money will go to safer havens then TYPICALLY stocks like AVCT.

Its no drama, just market conditions.

Otherwise what's your explanation that days or maybe a few weeks from potentially ground breaking news the SP has stubbornly refused to power ahead if not general market conditions?

Stevie, its a general market malaise. Loss making companies are always bought into sharper focus in recessionary times. Money becomes tight and therefore any company that might need to raise cash is a target for some holders to vacate and to go into safer companies and that also give dividend returns.

Generally money is likely to go into the bond market too. The Fed increased rates by .75% and I think it more likely now that the BoE will increase .5% today rather than the expected .25% today.

True Will, fingers crossed its just market conditions... lets hope we get a positive announcement soon.

Its a fair point in managing expectations.

AGL I think is an example to bear in mind (although no two companies are the same and AVCT's trial success is of a bigger magnitude).

AGL had been waiting for FDA approval that was a year over due. (It had peaked at about 140p previously on a false expectation of the delayed approval.) Anyway, get FDA approved (which is huge news) and shoots up from100p to 150p. 2 weeks later its back to 100p because it has little annual income and the CeO intimated income was a while away yet. So people have bailed on an expected but unknown cash raise likely to come.

When you look at AVCT's current valuation we have to realise a certain (largish) amount of good news is already priced in.

The rise will be bracketed I think, as to whatever AS reports on the day for income in the near term (say 12-18 months)

That will be the time for AS to as optimistic as we know he can be.

Oddy, the SP would seem to agree with you as rather than climbing each day in the expectation of imminent news its is more declining suggesting your fears are shared.

Whether or not a 2023 drill campaign means 5p I'm not so sure.

However, I know its dull and boring but never over commit to a stock like this that is effectively a binary play. That way the emotional pull (both ways) is removed

The conclusion I have taken D, is that if there was a big potential tax write off transfer, then the SP would not be at 1p.

It would immediately revalue the company given EVE's statement of being for sale.

just my opinion.

Does that make it true then Greg? A complete stranger to you says something unsubstantiated and you assume its true?

That's the funny thing, when people are so adamant that they know something, like for instance me and DG are the same poster, based on no proof whatsoever and as both D and me absolutely know that its not true, it does not shake their view.

You have no idea how stupid it makes you sound to me. Worse, it indicates you have poor reasoning and decision making skills. All of which i would suggest are important when choosing what stocks to buy.

But also, suit yourself.

Really Greg? "If Wyndrum goes and posts on stocks he owns, I think problems will be solved."

I am long on AVCT but that did not stop you going over there and personally attacking me for absolutely no reason. which then agitated more to join in. Well done you.

Aim, I hold many more stocks and trade much more than I post. The bigger stocks look after themselves. The smaller stocks are more of a challenge and its the puzzle solving I like.

I never over commit these days so financially its ok. Over trading as a principle is something I am aware of and although I am active, the markets are I think, increasingly volatile and on high risk stocks with larger spreads than ideal, I personally feel the need to make quick decisions.

The bit that I can't explain properly is that I don't care about the company. I just care about the SP. So just because I can see the chances of EVE going into admin isn't negative to me, its simply trying to be objective and to work out is the risk of buying in now for the potential gain worth it. But if you are a shareholder who maybe feels trapped by the scale of the fall it can be frustrating to read the type of post I write.

Ultimately we all have to figure out the best way to make money doing this on a consistent basis and its hard.

The rifts are one way DGU, it does not affect me. I quite accept people have different views that they are entitled to.

I engage with outspoken views to generate discussion. It sometimes reveals ideas and reasoning that i have not considered and as a result can make me buy the stock.

If you think about it, if you are already a shareholder you have made your decision. Unless you are good at removing the emotion from the decision making process, the individual "wants" to hear good things and ignore bad things, otherwise it makes them feel uncomfortable. One way of dealing with it is to tell the poster who is making you feel uncomfortable to shut up or go away.

I would say in my defence that I explain my reasoning and also indicate that I have no more insight than anybody else.

And as I say, if people don't agree they can argue their corner as you and I both do. There is never any need to fall out as far as I can see.

No worries Aim, its often the case that when I ask posters who are making incorrect assumptions about me to justify their views that all of a sudden they lose interest in continuing the conversation.

That's it Pedro, everything is my fault, the SP falling, Market manipulation, Posters leaving here.

Its never my fault however when the SP rises is it?

You don't think that the ones left posting here are the ones that have called this wrong so often?

Still want your 60p per share back when the the market reduced the SP back when vaccines were launched? Remember how long people posted here that it was a scandal of the "rigged" market? Still that was along time ago so lets not talk about that anymore. Want to talk about how AVCT never missed the LFT boat? Lets ignore that too. want to talk about perhaps there was a problem all along with the LFT?, no, all old hat now. We could talk about how the new LFT test is coming along 6 months after AVCT said it was reworking it. But again Covid is so yesterday, so what's left? The current trial? Well, as you know, I have always held on for the potential for SP appreciation should it be successful. The mood music is promising so fingers crossed.

Humility might not be my strongest point but by God you lot are bloody minded to a fault.

Aim, do you think its possible to make money by buying and selling shares, (forget timelines or frequency of trades).
I am just trying to understand your system. Given your name is Aimtrader1, it suggests you trade frequently.

I take it you are making money? or if you are not, why not?

Sperenza, As that is simply not true Ripdick could not have provided any proof whatsoever. (And indeed he did not.)

It is odd given the never ending personal lies and insults that are routinely hurled at me (which I could care less about), seems to be based on me buying low, selling high, and then buying back in low again, as opposed to the people who bought and held and missed out on wonderful profits. But somehow there seems to be a virtue on this BB for the few that are left posting, on self congratulation for being so narrow minded even if it costs them money.

Anyway, suit yourself.

greg, you are looking for links that don't exist.

I appreciate D's contributions for his honesty, explanations to his views and his disposition. he is quite happy to debate different opinions without ever resorting to insults or name calling or imagined ulterior motives.

if you (or anyone) is going to buy into loss making companies than you understand it is a high risk (riskier than buying profitable companies at least), and must surely accept that some (if not maybe the majority) are likely to fail. I assume you have a wide portfolio to balance this riskier selection and that the amount invested here won't hurt (financially) too much.

When stocks like this one (and AVCT for eg) are this high risk it is always worthwhile to hear a counter view so these BB's don't get over whelmed by Group Think and simply become an echo chamber. Well, thats my view anyway.

I have posted before that I emotionally separate the SP from the company. I have no interest or feeling for any of the companies i invest in. Why would I? I find it helps in maintaining objectivity.

You see it differently and that's fine. As long as your system works for you and you make money then that's great, because that's all there is to it after all.

Greg,

"Interesting how both accounts also post on the AVCT board... A totally unrelated stock"

You realise I hold more than one stock don't you? (I have a portfolio of about 12-15 companies, a few long term for dividend income and mostly short term to try and trade at a profit.)

AVCT is along term hold for me while I wait to see the outcome of their trial. I thought they were onto a winner initially with an LFT for covid but realised sooner than most (as it turned out), that this was not likely. However it has allowed me also to trade it very successfully at the same time. It is a stock I am currently, very fond of.

The idea is to make money in this activity, not get concerned about individuals, particularly as they make no difference to any outcome.

Greg, if all going so well at Eve, then wht have they posted a profits warning and put the company up for sale?

I would appreciate your view on this as opposed to just saying I am "negative" which is of no help to anyone.

Greg, what does it matter if I am a shareholder or not? Currently I am not but if I decide it is worth the risk then I will buy some. Exploring different views and their merits allows me to consider all sides.

Revenue is not much help if its is not sufficient to generate a profit. If historically Eve had been profitable but just got hit by poor management or bad luck then fair enough, but that's not the case.

Time has not run out yet but at last it has come down to the crunch. Eve can't sustain itself if nothing changes, which is either a new investor or somebody buys the business.

This is a loss making business that is relying on somebody else believing they can succeed where so far everyone else has failed.

(£2.5m per month turnover is not that big a deal....)

Hi D: when trying to fathom outcomes I try and put myself in the reverse position:

A company buying EVE does not care about the current shareholders. All they will look at is: Is it beneficial to bid now or wait until in admin?

Although Eve's directors have a legal obligation to shareholders if no bid comes in and they can't get a line of credit then they will go into admin when the cash runs out.

I have no idea what EVE's overheads are and I have therefore no idea what amount of costs could or would be needed to be reduced to make them profitable.

I still think the company (as an overhead) would benefit from being de-listed. I don't see the imperative of a buy out now. (As I said previously, if a bid did come in now then it would force the hand of somebody who perhaps is interested but wanted to wait. My point being there seems no advantage to be gained by bidding now.)

There is an assumption here that EVE has value. but what is it and how do you put an amount on it.

It has annual sales that are falling as a recession is just potentially starting. The logic says sales will be hit further over the coming 12 months. Eve have stated that they were close to profit (so loss making), and now that is expected to accelerate.

Their pitch is that they can turn a corner now with added funds. But how much money is needed and how long before it is profitable and at what margin? If these are unanswerable questions then why would anyone put in the money right now?

Again, just devil's advocate. I have no insight into this anymore than anyone else.

Energy, what good then has this BB been to amateur investors over the last years? (I am not expecting a reply but probably an insult instead.)

(It was not me that coined the term amateur investors as being brainwashed (that was Doggy),

Which was a pretty patronising statement, but lets gloss over that.

At some stage you might realise that Time is Money and is an important part of the equation that is generally over looked here (and elsewhere).