The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
"....not the sealion, who I now see has joined in as a green box, nor anyone on here - has your best interests at heart. "
Speak for yourself.
I post here to bring different scenarios to the fore in an attempt for those who had not considered them to do just that so that within their own personal finances, it might help mitigate losses or maximise profit depending on their own thought processes.
If I have an "agenda", then that is it.
BV: "AS hanging on for the big deal. Pharma can wait because no one is commercialising this if Avacta is going it alone. Avacta doesn't have the resources - cash, staff, skills - to go it alone and pharma knows that. Pharma can wait until Avacta are desperate for cash again."
Very good point BV,.
As AVCT come towards the end game it starts to crystalise the options available.
Its down to 18 months give or take. Is that time for the efficacy trial to be completed? Will the FDA have made a decision within that time?
The assumption is 2WD will be better for outcomes. But will it? Again that part of the trial has to be concluded. As BV highlights, the "go it alone" strategy removes pressure off BP to act quickly, which in turns reveals new different strategies for all parties.
My take knowing AS's MO is that there has been little or no positive approaches thus far from anyone of note and he is being forced down this route.
Money is not the immediate issue as the RI has given them the breathing space needed so the focus goes back to the science, but it was disappointing to me that there has been such a muted reaction to the latest presentation.
The implication is either this is not quite the breakthrough in cancer care we all think, or it is still has the potential to fail and is only at a promising early stage, or it is years away from, whoever owns it, making any money.
Given the trial has progressed for years and the SP has fallen so dramatically suggests it was wildly over valued.
I am coming to the conclusion that a likely scenario of talks between AVCT and BP have at best been promising and constructive but BP don't value the tech as as valuable as many here do and perhaps have indicated what they would pay AVCT to either license it or even buy them out and it was never anywhere near 185p per share.
Maybe its a case of who blinks first but David & Goliath doesn't begin to describe the mismatch between BP & AVCT.
(imo dyor etc)
Thanks BV,
So Ben, when I said "AS also confirmed there would be no license deals in the foreseeable future having apparently already rebuffed any lesser deals." as a precis of what BV has kindly posted, you still think I am lying and making things up?
Bfd, its not that I think AVCt will be taken private but simply highlight that it could happen to refute the "Its all about the science and the science works, so we will have to be patient but it will all be ok, so just keep using these low prices to top up" brigade.
If the trial is delayed or has any sort of set back which costs time and the there is more money needed, then given the costs of listing (which are pretty high I believe), then an option would be to de-list and go private ala SuperDry at the moment.
As I say I don't think this is the most likely outcome but it is not beyond the realms. That was/is my point.
Its not about the science its all about the money.
I have no idea of the calibre of the staff of AVCT, other to say this BB was full of the same type of things when JV's were being discussed and new staff were being recruited for the LFT.
And that whether people like it or not this is a red flag for me. I hope this will be different but it is following the same path as the LFT inasmuch, best in the world, everything going great, deals being inked etc etc. but delay after delay kept occurring. and money being raised
Now we have a paradigm shift in this tech, everything going great, small deals being turned down etc etc, but with delay after delay and money being raised.
My default position is we don't actually know anything about what's going on either in the trial or the actual company. All we have is what has actually happened before as a reference. Does not mean history will repeat itself, but common sense should at least surface to be aware that this is a very high risk company that has a very poor track record to date about commercialising their tech.
So when I read chomp chomp, buy now, top here there and everywhere, I think it prudent to remind people of what we actually know as opposed to what we guess/hope is going on.
"They are too stupid to realise that it is self-defeating to discourage quality posters who understand the science and replace them with puerile nonsense. But sadly that appears to be what has happened."
Take some responsibility for your own posts would you DTW? Your patronising insulting posts and air of superiority over anyone with a different view to yours only helped fuel this dysfunctional BB.
You said you liked the irreverence, what you actually mean you enjoyed the sickening abuse handed out to posters who's view you did not agree with.
You have only recently changed your tune to AS since the raise that you did not see coming, it only seems now you think the science and the SP are not the same thing.
And still you lambast the posters who through their "FUD" as you so gormlessly repetitively label them, have been a damn site more accurate than you in your forecasts and predictions as well as all the other "missing" posters you lament the absence of.
Ben, so you are telling me you expect a big deal by the end of 2025.....(20 Months!) .I said (based on what AS said), there was no big deal coming short term, I ie the next few weeks/ months. And you accused me of lying while agreeing with me...
Well done.... facing both ways at the same time, you should be in the AVCT coms dept.
I am waiting for the efficacy part of the trial, whatever it is called now, to re-produce the stellar results that have been indicated in the safety part of the trial.
My "beef", is with many posters here who talk in certainties rather than possibilities. The ones that won't or refuse to recognise the still high risk and ever extending timeline being subscribed to this trial without caring about the money.
Their inability to understand that AVCT could get taken private and they lose everything and yet still the science could prevail. That actually the SP does matter.
The talk of "golden tickets" as though this can't fail, when in fact the history of the company (not other examples, this company), is a failure to commercialise any tech and to miss every timeline ever set for anything. To recognise that they have a BoD that are very ambiguous with their statements and partial in their revelations to share holders while continuing to cause capital depreciation and dilution of their holdings going over years.
As long as no one has bet more than they comfortably can afford to lose then if the worse (from a shareholders pov), came to pass they would be financially ok.
Reading posts here there is little balance, and those that do try to balance the risks here are simply personally attacked and with all the intellectual vigour at their disposal just shout FUD, as though meaningless acronym is some sort of answer.
In that case Ben, I look forward to a large license deal being announced in the next 2 weeks.
If one does not arrive then does that mean I was not lying?
Or would you like to alter the timescale? Please let me know when you expect a big License deal to be announced, and some sort of ball park figure of what you think this larger License deal will be?
This should be interesting....
When he said he did not want to do any small deals that might jepodise a bigger deal in the future. The cash runway allowing more time for more data to prove the worth of the science.
If in all of that you did not hear that there is nothing large coming short term then you need a hearing aid.
Christ you lot are so defensive. You know what AS is like. Even the most obtuse of you must start to be able to understand what AS means when he talks by now?
Chief, its unlikely there are any positive short term drivers for the SP right now, other than an unexpected event.
We have already been told that DX won't be profitable until 2025, we have had a heavily discounted RI which suggests there was no immediate compelling good news to arrive. We have had a poster, 2 presentations and a Q&A which resulted in a lower SP now than the day before the exhibition kicked off. And we are expecting a dump of several million shares from Heights.
AS also confirmed there would be no license deals in the foreseeable future having apparently already rebuffed any lesser deals.
So where is the SP appreciation to come from?
Where was the release of all the extra data at a more significant venue that was meant to move the SP. Has it been and gone?
The irony will not be lost on me if GSA have had wind that there will be a move to oust AS, knowing what that would do to distabilise the company. A thing so many of you here crave.
ES: Do you think its personal then? Do you think he has deliberately targeted AVCT because they are a Cancer company?
Grow up.
AVCt have put themselves in this situation, no one else. GSA would not be taking this risk unless they thought the company are susceptible.
There could be (in theory) a TO bid tomorrow and GSA would be hit hard. The fact is they think that very unlikely.
Even if AVCt was forced to delist the science would carry on.
I have been banging this drum forever trying to get through some pretty thick skulls that the Science is different to the company.
The only people at risk are the shareholders.
Hi Kaeren,
I think there is circumstantial evidence, or it may as you say be coincidence. In any event Its difficult to put too much weight on what the BoD say, given their constant missed timelines on the refinance deal.
certainly a potential asset the size of IM must be in the calculation somewhere in the refinance structure. Its like valuing your house and you have an acre of land with it that's ownership is in dispute. The re-mortgage would likely be held off until resolved given the size of the loan requested.
Probably too simplistic, however it does have the merit of (to me) of being "obvious" so I would be of the view that the two are intimately entwined.
Sorry, I don't want to stir the pot, but the lines aren't arbitrary and setting the stops is a bit of an art form in its way given its trying to identify what the crowd will do.
Anyway, there is a bit more to it than it might seem at first glance.
Its unlikely I will sell at 80 on this one as I have spent longer here than expected due to the CEO not delivering the finance on time.....This has allowed me to build up a bit of a stake in this one and as I am now in profit I will play this one a little more fluidly but with a bias to hold as I think the FA case is (just imo) bolstered by the politics.
I think that the company is currently priced to fail however I think its location (NI), the Govt defence contract awarded and the apparent govt approval of the new financing suggests to me that this is potentially one of the least risk/highest re-rating due to the embarrassment the govt would suffer if this went belly up after all their involvement and with any potential unemployment that might happen, stocks I'm aware of.
And if that doesn't put the kybosh on it, nothing will......:0))
Hi CI,
Hope you are well,
This is an ongoing thread that was updated only this morning.
The RSI was 68.84 at close last night. (I only get twitchy at 80, but it is nevertheless getting toppy and if it hangs on to today's rise then it will be getting close to the 80 number
I think you will find digi, its the number of your filters thats the problem. And as you won't read them you have no idea of the content. And yet you post anyway. The logic of this always baffles me.
The other reason you perhaps don't see as many posters you prefer to suit your bias, is because they obviously don't post here as much if at all.
That could be for a variety of reasons, deciding this BB does not offer anything to them any more, that they have sold up and moved on, that they are embarrassed with their failed predictions.
Gje, this has been mentioned a few times now. What post of mine was ever a "massive ramping exponent of HE1?"
(forever I kept reminding people that it was a binary play and in fact still is to an extent (which I have also posted) but the odds are now much better
And its somewhat deflective, no one was talking about me or HE1
That's a little disingenuous gje, his analysis has been based on the results. and he has (and still has), quite a few supporters here who have appreciated his "papers" on AVCT over the years.
There was a time the release of his latest update even moved the SP.....