Member Info for wyndrum

As are you in your replies, but you think you are doing everybody a favour.

I have said this numerous times.

Stop personalising my posts and then I have nothing to respond to.

Unfortunately for all of us, you and some others, simply cannot do that, oh so simple thing.

Digi, why do you invest in a stock/market you know is manipulated that embraces rules (shorts) that you think should be banned?

Its like going to a rigged casino and then complaining you are not getting a fair shake.

Chris yes I was extremely frustrated with the market reaction to the science day because it seemed to fit a pattern of falls on these events.(I think that post got me more recs than usual by some margin, go figure)

But as I have reiterated before I have no problem with reversing my view if I think the picture has changed.

My frustration was borne out of my thought it was a good RNS. The fall on the day actually went to a support and when the next day it started slightly up I thought sod it and bought more.

So yes my frustration was misplaced simply because the market took a different view to what I wanted. (Emotions getting in the way of my more normal MO

And to say I have changed my view dozens and dozens of times is nonsensical.

I think (as I have said so many times) I think the risk reward is worth it with AVCT but I am out of step here because I dwell on the risk aspect given it could be a total loss. That does not stop me trading the ups and then selling If i think a retrace is likely before going long again. I don't see any conflict in these 2 views. One is long term (hence my long term holding) and the other is a separate trading pot.

Sheppy its not that i am "so clever" but so many of you seem not.

Its a bit like the one-eyed man......

Ah Ice, such a dismissive tone! you would think you never foot wrong. I advise others to read his views on ENT and VTY and apart from being completely wrong, his tone on anyone who disagreed with his view. (There are other examples such as Wood group and WH smith) where his analysis is proved completely wrong too), i don't mind that so much because its hard, but its this superior tone that if you don't share hhis view you are an idiot or the market understand or the city can't read an RNS correctly. Talk about hubris.

I for one would be much more confident in AVCT if Ice said he had sold up.

See chris, I have never said that. I have called rises on AVCt wrong a few times but where trading helps is that I sell with a relatively small loss typically 5-10% overall I have traded it very well as have many others over the years. It has not been that hard.

Hi D,

Yes I called it up at 102p on its way to 285p and started selling at 256p but that is just boastful bragging and those who say I only call it hindsight should be allowed to repeatedly post the opposite.

(The roulette wheel is based on a 50/50 outcome red/black as opposed to specific numbers.)

atb

Digi, it was odds on to retrace as it was in over bought territory.

So people who look at this type of thing are holding off to buy just yet.

Thanks NR for that:

When you say "I’ve witnessed how quickly the (uncashed) profit can accumulate. I don’t want to be out if and when the SP does substantially rise."

That is the classic fear and greed tap dance at play. It has for 6 years stopped you taking advantage of other less risky bets.

As an example you could have bought Nat West at 111p its up 500% and chucks out 5% dividend which would be 25% annual return on your original investment. I only mention it because the govt had already bailed it out so it was never going to go bust so there was limited downside.

There are numerous examples of extremely good returns with far far less risk.

I guess it comes down to what price you will sell at so you can gauge risk reward and time... Never forget time as part of the equation.

You have "wasted" 6 years of returns that you will never get back as a percentage of your investing life of say 30 years, you have lost 20% of it and after all that time you are sitting on a loss which compounds the situation. Or to put it another way you could buy now get more shares for your money and had more money to buy these shares.

Trading is a different subject but ultimately is as much about money management and safe guarding capital as making the right calls. People who don't trade get caught up with the flip floping aspect and ignore the mechanical and unemotional side to the "system" Done correctly it allows for 1 call in 3 being wrong and still very good profits to be made continuously over very short to short timeframes.

Like the roulettes wheel analogy, it soon adds up. Atb

Pedro, if several posters constantly say that you lie in every single post and never stop, would you not feel compelled to point to posts and examples where is that is not the case? Would you consider your acting would be boastful of saying you never lie, or simply pointing out that others are trying to present a false case against you?

It seems a bit like a bank loan.

I go and borrow money i haven't got from a bank that uses the saving of others that bank with them on condition I pay the money bank within a specified time

Chris I am not going to comment on TW as I know little or nothing about him.

As to your more general contrarian comment, I think it reasonable to remind us all that at any time the SP has 2 options and those two options need to be explored so we can decide how likely or not those various scenarios may play out.

I have admitted previously that I am perhaps more cautious than some here and pay more attention to the downside scenarios than the upside.

The reason is that the upside gets all the attention because any listed companies only accentuate the positive and they can spin a very persuasive case. The (or any) down side is kept carefully shrouded so as a result i think it prudent to concentrate the little grey cells on that aspect as there will be little help from the only people who know and that is the company in question.

I think you will find Pedro that I was not gloating or boasting but simply having to demonstrate where i had called it correctly in the face of provocative misleading posts to the contrary

Yes it was Chris, hence the sub 20p and I thought at the time as I articulated why it was not an unreasonable thought.

The very fact that a new form of funding albeit short term, was brought in as the one in force then increasing looked to be a death loop.

AB I did not mention the half life. I said I thought that the results were patchy and not as expected, and that was why extra cohorts were demanded.

Also I don't panic as I never bet with more than I can comfortably afford to loose.

I never "fretted" about a 20p placing simply saying that at the time when the SP was around 27p and another heights repayment was looming along with the need to raise that a sub 20p discount price could not be ignored.

Its not me that proclaims I am a genius and in fact no one ever has here so aging along with you thinking I panic, fret and am a genius you come across as someone who is desperately inventing a personality for me that simply does not exist to discredit my views. Quite why i have no idea but again you are just another poster who without any actual proof just post your own personal biases.

Digi, I did not say it was altruistic, just as buying from a broker is nothing to do with the company. That purchase or a number of them could indicate someone knows something and others pile in, which is very common. How is that different form a short?

The hedging aspect is what helps keep your pension fund growing.

And not for nothing once money is involved then nefarious aspects will be found to exploit it no matter what the market is.

Shorting is just a bet, there is no moral difference to going long.

If a company is well run then the short will ultimately fail.

What shorts can do is expose risk that a company may be trying to keep under wraps and allow investors to be aware.

Personally I have never understood the moral argument against shorting. It provides a function.

We allow leveredge to make money, whats that all about, buying stocks with money you don't have?

All buys are gambles. You are betting a stock will go up over a period of time without having anywhere all the info to make an assessment.

If you use the world "spend" in stead of investment I think you will find the meaning is exactly the same.

There is a reason why they call it a casino.

Digi, one argument is that by shorting you can alert the market that not everyone thinks its going up and that it may be a pause for thought before buying.

The other one is that the risk to shorting is very high. If you buy and the company went bust you can see clearly the ultimate risk. However if you short there is potentially no cap on your losses. As a result it tends to concentrate the mind much more when a short is placed.

The other one is that it is a hedge to protect an investment so you think its going up and it might be a high risk/high reward buy. But in case you have it wrong you take out a short to minimise the loss if it did in fact fall.

The last one is that due to how technology has developed, we can all now buy/sell/trade from our phones. Its developed into just another strand of gambling and it panders to many who do not understand or care what they are doing. so you can bet on a SP going up or down.

(The last one is to me is the depressing fact.)

I have never come across it as any sort of TA indicator but it does feed into value as the SP dictates the Mkt Cap, so it effectively revolves around the SP as it is a duplication of how you see value. It could be argued its more of a fundamental number using that system to see if a company is under or over valued.

For instance if the SP doubled today on no news it would over night make the company worth £800m. Then you have to start saying what sort of annual profit in the sector would that MC imply and by when would it be generated. Then, is that reasonable?

But TA with the various indicators which are just algo's of the SP, would in fact give guidance to whether it was deemed over or undervalued without any of that.

"Counter intuitively id like this to fall back over next few sessions to the breakout zone of 82p and that would complete a text book retest and go for the next wave.

Keep up AB, I already posted that. Oh wait a minute, don;t engage even if you come to the saer conclusion as me because all I do is spread fud and misinformation and have not got a clue and... and ... and....

Regarding niox it looks like a good place to buy from a ta pov!