Member Info for wyndrum

"A lot of people don’t seem to understand what these conferences are actually for."

And you know this as fact how exactly?

How many of these conferences have you attended and in what capacity?

Two things as devils advocate:

one, you would only be selling if you had a half decent profit. (from a ta pov that would be 55p so a 30% profit. not bad....?)

two, often a SP will fall on the news rather than rise, as the news is expected and the SP already has built in this good news and therefore needs exceptionally good news to surprise the market above its already realistic/accurate expectation. Therefore its common for it to fall.

It comes back to this whole profit thing:

if you go into a trade (or buy if you do not like the trade connotation), you should have a target plan from where you will sell.

Say you do sell a bank this 30% profit and buy bank in higher later.... so what?

I guess it comes down to how risk averse or not the individual is but, on stocks like this that are high risk, taking a decent profit is a very reasonable strategy.

Always remember this is nothing about research or any of the rest of it. There is a trial in progress that had you bought at the out set you would be on a larger capital loss. That was preceded by very bullish data and RNS's and indeed here, so there is not as much to be gleaned here than is conceitedly expressed on a daily basis.

The driver now is a trial yet to start. If it works as hoped then obviously this will be a fantastic stock. if it doesn't it wont. You really don't need AI to work that out.

The RSI can be applied to several time frames.

You use the timeframe that is applicable to your expected timeline of trading.

So, if you are day trading which means you close your potion by the end of the day so as to be protected from any overnight news, the anything between 1,5,15 or 60 minute timeframes are appropriate.

However, given the lack of volatility, liquidity and spread make AVCT a non-candidate for Day Trading.

Therefore (imo), the timeframe if you are holding as a trader for days weeks months, is to use the closing prices of each day and apply the RSI to that time frame.

As a result the RSI closed last night at 60.89, not remotely overbought. Further it closed above 68p the last very recent high showing more gains.

So to buy around 70-72p is a perfectly good place to buy from a risk reward perspective.

Part of the equation, is to have a stop loss should this be a false upward move which would be a close around 66p

So a 4-6p loss against an immediate expected gain of about 15-17p which is about 3-1 which is the minimum reward a trader would bet on given the uncertainty of being right.

So although this is a tight RR for the first move (87p) a break above that would really catapult further more substantial rises.

And as long as the stop loss is not triggered it gives the trader time to see how the chart develops.

Anyway, its NOT over bought

Everything looks good.

Odds strongly suggest a quick move to 85p

Given you have never once been correct on you forecasts covering 5 odd years I gues we can take to the bank there WILL BE:

either

A NASDAQ LISTING

MULTIPLE DEALS

A PARTNERSHIP

You could well be right Conti, but prior to the Rukwa update (which led to the recent spike ), the SP was around .45p. The news was positive but still long term, so the SP came back but nevertheless supports the SP at higher level. (my best guess is around .55.p - .60p)

This update is slightly disappointing as I was led to believe we would have money coming in in Jan, now mid march, so clearly as is usual, ttimelines have slipped, however given that, it is progress, so maybe a fall back but only to around 60-65 I think as a worse case.

Certainly the upside is to .8p, all in all it will be an interesting and probably volatile day.

(imo dyor etc)

And I would add: then if ava6k was/is so good, then why did the SP collapse from 185p to 27p?

Thats not market noise.

it coincided with a 4 dose cohort being almost doubled to 7. That suggests something was not working as expected and more patients more dosing, was needed to get greater clarity on what looks to have been surprising results.

Dr Smith spun it as "good news". Given he is no longer with the company the most obvious assumption (and i know its an assumption), is that something was off. Quite what we don't know.

To assume an almost doubling of the length of the trial, the financial problems it created and a collapse of the SP and a top level change in the key directors assumes it was all going to plan does not make sense, well at least not to me.

How any of you can simply ignore/airbrush the LFT result with a non-antibody test which was its USP only to find out years later that it did in fact have an antibody component and that was compounded by a new test would be quickly designed to deal with the latest at the time variant of covid that was in fact never done shows how a company can deceive and lie to its shareholders.

Dr Smith was still in charge at that point in AVCT AVA6k trial.

personally i think to assume there was no problems with the present trial is more "nonsense" than assuming there was more going on then we were led to believe.

Hi Van, It has caused much, (mostly ill-tempered) debate over the last few years as to hoe good AVA 6k was/is.

My view was something was not quite right. The safety aspect was /is seems very good. But I think the efficacy did not perform to expectations with the interacction with the tumour.

The new expectation is this new trial has remedied the efficacy "problem".

But this view is in the minority and plenty here don't see any problem with AVA6k.

If avct is caught up it will just be a mark down but it might miss out entirely on any reaction: its impossible to know. I would be surprised if its more than 5-7% in any case. Whether or not that is sufficient to put in extra funds would be down to the individual.

Good luck

Hi D,

I imagine defense shares will do well. (they have been an absolute no-brainer since trump got in.)

If oil stays high that will be good for the oil sector but will cause some inflation which might mean higher interest rates and therefore a slow down in the otherwise quite good backdrop for global growth resulting in a general mark down

It all depends on how long this will go on for. I t looks to me as though the actual "campaign" will be short lived, so this might be a blip.

I guess it depends on how much new money you want to put into the market.

Big companies will do better than high risk ones I imagine as you can ride out the ups and downs and time becomes less important.

The market tends to be more and more sanguine (complacent?) these days to what would be in the recent past, huge market moving events.

As long as the canal stays open this is likely imo to be a muted fall.

You pays yer money and all that.

Fwiw Van I am more confident than I have ever been now with the other stock and the parallels with CPX are obvious.

The most obvious that both stocks time has come. For both the next 12 months will be defining one way or the other.

For the big gains in the other stock, they could happen very soon so again fwiw, if it does interest you get your research done quickly so you can make a decision sooner rather than later.

ATB

Morning Van,

I had sold down and reduced my holding (but not completely), but over the last week or two re-bought. (I have a speculative portfolio which has limited funds so as to keep the bigger, safer portfolio ring-fenced)

I have got back to about 10m shares which is plenty i think and the other stock is the one you popped over to just recently, as that time for it seems fast approaching. (The rest of the spec stocks and have been reduced quite dramatically to beef up these 2 in particular.)

Chart wise its at a key resistance level and it looks more likely than not to me to carry on up next week. I would expect it to go into the mid 30's as that was quite a struggle for a time before it broke down. However, if (as is expected), we get some fundamental news then the target will immediately focus on the 47p high.

It does feel as though this year its now or never. (its all very exciting!) :0))

Hi Van, I have been in this stock for 6 years and have been fortunate to trade the up moves enough times successfully, to be in overall a pretty good profit.

Historically AVCT has promised great things and commercially delivered nothing.

The current trial is 5 years in which for a phase 1 level is bordering on farcical, however they are trying something novel. Reported results have all been encouraging but has been contradicted by a falling SP over the same period. This contradictory set of events has made many nervous and as I say with the almost universal failure of any of its tech to be commercialised is understandable.

The next/new trial does look to be the real game changer (again! There is certain amount of deJa Vue here), and as its due to start in the next few weeks it is starting to generate some PI interest. What makes this potentially more exciting is that it comes off the back of AVA6k and it looks very much that some very important and crucial observations/challenges have been overcome and that this new trial will benefit from whats gone before.

The "downside" is that there is not enough money to see this through or even the current trial is to phase 2. The bullish take is that new funding will come externally and won't be dilutive and the worry is that it will!

I don't think anybody thinks at this stage that funding won't happen, but as I say, just how it will be achieved.

Certainly timewise, this is a reasonable time of entry because you would think that within the next 9-12 months the die really will be cast one way or the other. Chartwise it is likely to rise from here with a 62/64p floor support.

The potential is at this stage impossible to tell, the best case is that it is a multi- billion $ novel therapy for many types of cancer. The down side is for some reason it fails, although there have already been good results on salivary gland cancer which has no standard treatment currently, so you would think there is some vale for AVCT on that one cancer alone, however, before that can happen larger patient trials would likely be needed and we are back to funding again.

I think right now is the best and most promising time for AVCt to deliver on what has so far been tantalisingly just out of reach.

What is clear is that results (as always) will define the outcome and those results, whatever they will be, are time-wise, not that far away now.

Because SB, charting revolves around key points that that system works by.

The SP ALWAYS has 2 options and given the long term decline of this stock to be able to profit from rises is imo no small feat.

If the individual is sufficiently disciplined and does not get caught up with the emotion of the gambling aspect of the exercise then it allows a plan to be executed.

A or B might happen. Odds are it will be B. Hold on it turns out to be A after all. Change direction and get on board.

Its not about being right or wrong in an expectation,. but being prepared to react when the orginal expectation is confounded.

Some here get caught up in "wrong/right" or flip flopping or whatever, I get caught up in making more money than I lose on trades. But thats just me.

Its not for everyone but it works for me. esp. when I look at the alternative which in this instance has been lth. The problem I have with that strategy on this type of stock is that the risk profile, in other words the numerous chances of missing targets/delays/cash flow etc etc make that plan more likely to lose money than not.

Its all about odds.

None of us know the future or how it will pan out. Its all a guess, educated or not.

It is clear that very few here put any value at all on my posts and thats fine. I don't care about being "liked" or not or peoples views on whether they believe what I post or not. None of that puts in or takes money out of my account.

This was my observation in a post on the 1st feb when the SP was 51.5p

"the drop is right on the strong level of support so next week from a chart perspective is potentially critical.

If it closes 50p or lower than 42p is the next support and if 50/51p as a strong support does go, then i would expect 42p to be tested rather than drift in between those 2 levels.

The other case is for it to rebound away but it looks less likely as there is continued downward pressure to test this support as every previous move up has been short lived. You would need a close above 58p to give some sort of confidence that the worst was over or ideally more cautiously a hold above 64p.

Mm’s might be short of stock?

If everyone says the world is flat someone, saying it isn't doesn't make them a narcisist.

Time is the single most important element in investing and life generally. However the younger people don't get this until its often too late.

This is a punt that might come good. I have consistently made that point.

I read here mostly (not always for sure), confused contradictory and illogical thought processes that get many recs of confirmation.

I don't care here if I am "liked" or not. Whats that got to do with anything?

I have been broadly pessimistic about this stock over the years. How has that worked out compared to the opposite view?

I mention this because when you accuse me of "Wyn knows best. Me, me, me, me, me, me, me. Everyone should be doing what I do." What am i to do when criticised.

Would you prefer no one ever to point out where you might be going wrong to your detriment?

What is the point of these BB's if not to exchange views. But as I am one of the few that has been correct to be cautious to date and preserved the profits I have made I get many posts telling me to shut up go away and how everybody dislikes me. Better just to read all the rampers over the last 5 years that so far have been 100% incorrect in their forecasts on prices, money, timelines and results. 100% incorrect. Not once right.

But by all means follow them for their positivity, but perhaps not so much for your own wealth creation.

I tr

Chris I only remind people I am right when they attack me for always being wrong.

I would also remind you that I can only go long, I don't have the facility to short.

And I have been, for the record broadly, right on AVCT's progress over the last 6 years and at the same time profiting from what I though most likely SP trends/moves

If you think backing a high risk gamble for 5 years with no time line, no idea on returns, erratic, partial info from the company itself, and no knowledge what the competition is doing is investing then you are stretching the word to breaking point and in a crooked market (although to be fair that is less used as an excuse now). And we won't even go into the actual history of AVCT where to date every tech that has been attempted to be commercialised has failed.

5 years ago when the trial started the SP was around 150p. That is not day to day noise. This is one of the longest ever phase 1 trials, there is no money to carry it on and no money to fund the next trial. The latest 2 rns's read very positively to the layman, and yet the SP has hardly moved.

It depends on your goals of course but realistically now given every year previously was going to be "the year", how much have you "lost" not being in a safer stock? what would the buy out price be now? 500p?

The idea is to make consistent returns because you need about a £1-3m depending on your age to have a comfortable life style over the next 20-50 years so it is crucial that every year you make money and the return ideally should be greater than 10% so it can compound up. Every year you miss that target or suffer capital loss the mountain gets ever steeper to climb.

5 years in and who are the TR1 holders?

Are you saying that the previous 5 years and data doesn’t count?

No BP small 3% stake just to hedge a few bets?

And no, I don’t know anything but who has guessed right over the last 5 years? Not you for sure

You don’t need AI for this at all.

All the “valuations” are based on it working perfectly as advertised. Well, yeah Duh!

If it does then it’s worth billions. If not then zero and everything in between depending on how partially it performs.

As a result it is impossible to have any sort of estimate onto little detail.

What we do know is these last two rns have provoked zero interest from institutions and I’d.

To think only ice has used ai on this stock is beyond laughable. The sp however is not.

There seems a lot more water to flow under the bridge before any more reasonable estimate can be guessed at.