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DTW, one day it will dawn on you that is not just about the science.....
This is an INVESTMENT BB, it is reasonable to discuss the investment side of the business and what may or may not cause the SP to rise.
The fact that you have been absolutely, 100% wrong in every expectation of progress with the science does not jolt your belief in the science, coupled with your breath-taking arrogance one iota, is quite something to behold.
JT, when you say " ...especially when you are operating on a shoestring budget like Avacta"
How many 100's of millions, does it take not to be shoestring any more?
( I think its close to £200m so far and they have produced since 2006........
For goodness sake... grow up. If AS was forced out so would other directors. He is not soley to blame.
If you believe in the science then the next 12 months should put this all to bed. Removing the BoD is only going to undermine EVERYTHING AVCT are trying to do.
Donkey, don't assume that just because some are cautious about buying or recommending to buy, when a SP is falling ("never catch a falling knife") that somehow they must be shorters.
Whether some like it or not, many in the market do in fact use charts to inform their buying and selling decisions.
Unfortunately 41p is a support level, so some may be waiting to see if that level occurs.
Others may as I said up top, be nervous about catching a falling knife.
Its not anyone's fault here, pros or cons, that the SP is where it is. But given where it is, caution surely is a responsible and understandable reaction.
The very basic form of supply and demand is that if people want to sell and no one wants to buy (for whatever reason), the SP will fall.
If news comes out to change sentiment then the SP will rise.
Its not complicated and no other explanation other than common sense is needed to understand why we are where we are.
I hope so, I really do.
This stock has been unique for me in providing so many false dawns that it becomes increasingly harder to assume, the next one will be the real deal.
(The counter argument could be... we have had 40 patients dosed and all it has resulted in is a collapse of the SP what difference will a 100 make?
Don't know gje, Did you expect a cash raise at 50p with £16m in the bank?
How much is DX losing? Will this next phase of the trial increase cash burn?
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst. This is hard earned money of ours after all....
Ice, its tricky, because we have had great results thus far. So will the next 12 months be sufficient in the trials progress to move the SP.
I don't know what will happen. (Obviously), There will be 1 if not 2 share dumps before we get much new info (probably).
It all depends where the SP bottoms out to then put future rises into perspective.
I think the uncertainty is one of the reasons why the SP is under such pressure.
For instance I feel this poster in April, now, is a big deal. I hope it is.
" The sniff of a license deal and this 3 or 4 bags! Commercial validation transforms this instantly and destroys pretty much every single attack line of FUD in a single go. It will happen without warning just like that. This was sitting at 130p just a few months ago when funding concerns loomed large. Those concerns are now gone for years"
And is their a "sniff" of a license deal? Is their any sign of commercial validation?
The cash is apparently good to last til Feb 26. (But to believe that you have to trust AS on his time line predictions. To do that is illogical based on him missing every single timeline so fa) But even on that basis when do you think AVCT will go to market? 6 months before? sooner? So 15 months-18 months is a more realistic time frame. Not Years is it?
Also the last 3 raises have been: 1@120p, 1@95p, and 1@50p. What price the next one?
I offer these scenarios to try and show there are alternative outcomes to your one view.
I never cease to be amazed at the seemingly cavalier approach many here have to losses. If you sell right now its about 7% below the offer price of just a few days ago.
Any yet this is another great "opportunity to "fill yer boots"
Not many here would last long as fund manager's.
Still at least none of you are gambler's....
You are far too emotional, watching.
I am not a doomster, simply trying to see if there is a rational or plausible explanation as to why there seems to be the disconnect Muff articulated.
You look for the most ridiculous unlikely explanations in my posts rather than the obvious one.
Mc Muff, it could be that the market thinks there are more falls to come before it bottoms out?
maybe buying a house is a good analogy.
The house is a nice 4 bed detached in a good area. It will stay all of those things but interest rates have gone up and so the price is falling. Do you buy now or gamble it will fall further? If the expectation is for interest rates to rise further then its odds on the price will come down more. so maybe best to wait.
carrying on with this, it looks like rates have topped out and the next move will be a fall in rates, but the fall will be so small that it won't have an effect so its likely more people on fixed rates will have to renew at higher payments in the coming 12 months forcing more distressed sales causing a further fall in house prices.
None of this affects the nice house or area. Its still as nice as it was at its peak.
More specifically, many here want AS to go. That will cause disruption. How would the SP react? Up because his incompetence will now be removed and everything in the science will be better? (probably not..). Up, because things can now speed up and it gets to market quicker? (probably not).
Up, because the new CEO will tell the "truth"? meaning it will take longer to get to market than forecast? (probably not.)
Or, down because its an admission the company has been at best, mismanaged or worse it may cause some to think the results are not quite as good as reported or both?
I for one don't want AS removed now at this stage.
So the market is uncertain as to exactly whats going on and thinks the SP is likely to fall further. if that is the case it become self fulfilling and that's where I think we are.
So not as disconnected maybe as it seems.
I have never gloated and have always been upfront on my continued holding here.
so wrong on both assumptions.
I don't hold enough stock here to care if it goes tits up. This allows me a degree of objectivity that some here mis-intepret as arrogance.
Fair enough.
The new risk for me at this low price now given where AVCT is in the trial, is a takeover could be at a much lower level.
I understand we see the importance of the SP differently. Again fair enough.
I accept surprising news could/would change sentiment overnight.
However for me, the down trend and imo, low level of the raise agreed, suggests to me that this at best, is a long haul still.
And to project a few years ahead let alone a decade given how the last few years has gone SP wise, is so speculative as to be pointless.
Ice, the more important part is not the "In this case the chance of Success for AVA6000 is the same if the price was 300 or 20p." its at what price the individual bought at.
At some stage you must surely acknowledge that there is a huge sliding scale of what "success" looks like?
You don't know when this will be commercially available. You don't know what profit AVCT will make from this tech. You don't know how well it works in terms of outcomes.
If you are going to ignore the SP from this lack of knowledge how do you value AVCT?
Is it simply on the single best outcome and no other scenarios are even considered? And what are you basing this single valuation on anyway? just on gross sales on Dox rather than any sort of profit metric? Are you banking on it being bought out or going it alone? and over what time period do you expect the Tech to be around? And if different drugs to Dox what trials will have to be used for them to prove safety/efficacy etc?
Yes Ronny, I know that, I basically asked when do you know when its stopped or started being irrational?
This is a very subjective game stock picking, that can be played in hindsight but only when, using hindsight, the result tallies with your desired result.