Member Info for WingingItSince92

Excellent post racandfz.

I read somewhere “no American market has bottomed out in less than 6 months from the start of a crash, could this be different” - and I guess the biggest difference is the FED pumping pumping pumping. The next few months will be interesting. Luckily I’ve managed to mitigate a lot of the losses from the March lows, but retail investors need to tread carefully.

No one knows what will happen, and anyone who claims to know - most definitely doesn’t know! Haha.

But, you’ve got to be in it to win it ;)

Hoolicat, I may not know much about the virus world but even I wasn’t referring to a literal thought process *facepalm*.

Perhaps this extract will help articulate my post in a better way -

“Take, for example, a virus that has a mutation that makes it particularly deadly to its human host and kills the host within a few hours of infection. The virus needs a new, healthy host for its descendents to survive. If it kills its host before the host infects others, that mutation will disappear.”

You are right in saying it may become deadlier. However this is not what the general consensus is. And this has been backed up recently with test results, therefore, I am firmly in the “virus is getting weaker” camp.

Relevant to CINE shares because I believe the only reason the SP is being held back at the mo is fear of a second wave sweeping the US. We haven’t got enough experience in pandemics to know what will happen. In the last century we have had the Spanish Flu but nothing else (thankfully) - so there isn’t much past experience to go off with this (less deadly than the SF) virus.

If markets remain green (even a little) and this new spike in southern states proves to be less fatal - this will surpass £1 no problem.

Very good point @Roadtrip.

Due to the states being a massive landmass - the “less dense” States , I.e Texas, are having the virus still build a “foundation” - though the deaths are nowhere near as bad as when it first hit the East Coast.

Abbott said there is "no real need to ratchet back the opening of businesses in the state", one reason being "because we have so many hospital beds available to anybody who gets ill." - on Houston.

The wave will dissipate in the next 14-20 days!

I always try and remember - markets are forward looking. So if we wait until the wave goes away, it’ll be too late!

Haha!

@investeroid - you are quoting “Beijing officials” - if you believe their statements, frankly, you haven’t seen enough of the world my friend!

105 cases since Friday (5 days) - 21 cases a day. Population 1.4 billion. Wow. Lock your doors mate. We have NO IDEA how many cases China had / has or will have. This is pretty much universally agreed upon. No point quoting them.

Side note, I was speaking to my brother who works in a lab as a bio Med (too complicated for me) but Viruses want to survive and so, historically have become weaker with time but mire contagious. He turned out to be right so far given this weeks news -

“Upto 80% of people could now be asymptotic” (this initially started at 30%). A virus needs to survive and doesn’t want to kill its host.

If we look at Europe. The evidence backs this up. There will always be clusters of new cases. But please don’t quote Beijing officials and expect us to take it as fact.

Evening all,
Just wanted to reply to Investeroid’s latest comments.
1.) The Beijing “2nd wave” - was ~50 new cases (45 more over the weekend) any *reasonable* individual can look at those numbers as completely negligible in a country of over 1 billion.
2.) Comparison with Iran is not accurate whatsoever. They were barely testing - this is a direct quote from the BBC who quote Gov officials in Iran - “ but officials have suggested the surge in new cases could be down to more testing.

President Hassan Rouhani has said this means you will find more cases.”

I don’t want to question your intentions but you certainly don’t provide a balanced argument for new investors on this thread. I am not denying there may be a second wave, however Mnunchin and many others have already said they wont lockdown again. And the head of Europe’s disease prevention has said any further waves are not likely to be as bad as the first. Not to mention in the UK NHS capacity has gone up 3/4/5 fold in regards to ICU cap etc. There will always be a risk when investing, that’s why prices are where they are - but a balanced argument has to be provided.

Long time lurker - medium term investor. For FD, currently in CINE @90 (£20k, so relatively small I’m sure when compared to others.)