Member Info for WingingItSince92

We all know markets are forward looking.

They will have the “whiff” of normality before you or I do and the SP will reflect this.

That said, anyone with a low risk appetite is not being forced into investing here. The potential upside is huge, but as anything that comes with risk.

In the UK we had 154 deaths yesterday. When adjusted for pop roughly equates to 770 deaths in the US.

Any second wave will be much less severe than the first according to almost all officials. UK estimates 60 deaths / day average during winter wave.

Antibodies will last for 1-2 years in those infected and who become unwell. Could be less for those who show no symptoms. Any “second” virus will be less severe . (Not imo, in official opinions.)

Big picture.

For some perspective -
The SP was
60p March 25th 2020.

Considering where the world was then, and where it is now ....
Considering where Cineworld was as a business then (debt, cineplex, no opening date) and where it is now ...

That should really help you figure out whether this is a strong buy at this price or a hold / sell.

Wow. Who saw that coming today lol.

Well said joker.

I added a little more when it dropped into the 66’s. Will be an interesting 4 weeks I think. US cases will start to drop / cinemas will open (or will they?) I’m sure some states will keep em closed. Hoping NY will open them - but they’ve been ultra conservative so far

“But the common cold is generally mild. There are two more troublesome coronaviruses - the ones that cause Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (Sars) and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (Mers) - in which antibodies have been detected a few years later.

"The question is not whether you become immune, it's how long for," said Paul Hunter, a professor in medicine at the University of East Anglia.

He added: "It almost certainly will not last for life.

"Based on antibody studies in Sars it is possible that immunity will only last about one to two years, though this is not yet known for certain."

However, even if you are not completely immune it is possible a second infection would not be as severe”

A few months? Wow the inaccuracy. Nobody knows how long immunity will last.

No symptoms or mild = short lived (6mo - 2 years) immunity predicted

Severe symptoms = much longer immunity with less severe symptoms every time you do catch it again.

Long term = less severe virus. Second wave estimates from yesterday pointed to 60 deaths / day in the UK during the winter (Average).

Haha. The ignorance is unreal. “The US are worse off” - would have to have another 80k ~ deaths to just *break even* with us. “Done SO much worse” would have to more than double their toll.
You completely missed the point about about deaths through economic devastation. The US unemployment rate is at 13 ish % (420k excess deaths = more then triple current Covid toll). Unemployment set to increase to 16-19.5% (do the maths). But yeah keep ignoring the facts.

Keep your head buried in the sand big boy. Off you go back to cuckoo land. The US will stabilise, the SP will rise. As always there is an element of risk.

This is getting silly so I’ll keep it short so you can comprehend what I am actually sayin.
1.) you didn’t answer my qs regarding where you draw the line with saving lives.

2.) we did a good job in the UK? Ha-HA! Oh my. Where does our death toll stand? Where does the death toll in the US stand? Adjust that for population and look at the numbers.

Silly, silly boy.

Why did you ignore the study findings showing 37,000 deaths per percentage of unemployment increase? Do those lives not matter? Or did you just not know that the increase in unemployment will cause tens of thousands of deaths .... in fact more people in the US will die from economic damage over the next decade than the current TOTAL US Covid death toll X 2 !

You’re silly comment is referencing Covid survivors who already had MORE THAN 1 underlying issues, look at the stats of healthy individuals rather than posting a *fringe* study that the daily fail picked up.

A vaccine for the flu but 8-15 thousand people still die. So where do you draw the line? Who determines how many deaths are *enough* for a lockdown? What are you ACTUALLY basing your argument on? How many deaths then go on.....

Stop trying to scaremonger people on this forum.

- there are NOT thousands with permanent lung damage in the UK, check the stats.
- tell that to the MILLIONS who have lost their livelihoods
- tell that to the THOUSANDS who are being made homeless
- tell that to the MILLIONS who will have personal and financial ruin from this destroying DECADES of their lives
- obesity kills more people a year than COVID has in the UK, let’s ban MCD & BK etc?
“Before the economic mess this virus caused, the US unemployment rate was just 3.5 percent. In March, it rose to 4.4 percent. And there are predictions that it will go as high as 13 percent and maybe even 15 percent before people start returning to work.

The actual figure in academic research is a 37,000 increase for each percentage-point rise in the unemployment rate. It comes from a book called “Corporate Flight: The Causes and Consequences of Economic Dislocation” by Barry Bluestone, Bennett Harrison and Lawrence Baker.”

- every Percent of unemployment (US) equates to 37000 excess deaths.

Would you close the UK down every year to protect the 8-15 thousand deaths from seasonal flu?

Wall Street isn’t a place for morales.

But your argument is completely one sided and misinformed.

That’s not technically correct. This would usually be the case, but due to the pandemic the rule has been sidelined for now. And yes, only cargo flights to the US for the time being. Brits not allowed

I don’t believe this is an income / spending issue holding back the Sp.

Yesterday the world recorded its highest COVID cases toll. And with Southern states still having another 7-10 days of their “peak” to go I think that will determine *when* this particular SP spikes! :)

Good news - if only mentally, there really has been a constant stream of positives and anyone who lives near a shopping centre will have seen the crowds! Only more good news to come (just need US cases to drop!)

I topped up by 3000 shares when it dropped into the 76’s earlier to add to my holding - though, I realise there is the risk of a few more “sideways” weeks to come regarding the SP, I feel like this could add 40% value within 2/3 days & don’t want to miss that! Got some dry powder from selling my IAG shares a couple of weeks ago, so keeping that around in case this dips into the 60’s - unlikely.

What a silly and futile comment.

The US is increasing in some states and decreasing in others. Hence my comment “different stages”.

Exactly what happened in China and now in India.

The US has nearly half a billion people. You can not compare that to a country with less than 10% of its population. Even if you are looking at “percentage” change. Simply because the country is huge and the virus DIDNT spread freely in the South, initially. It did along the east coast, hence why NYC had 20 deaths today. What part of “it will start to drop off” do you disagree with? When the exact thing has happened around the globe. Lockdown or no lockdown.

You’re comment about herd immunity over simplifies the situation & displays a lack of understanding. I don’t have time to explain to you why that is inaccurate.

Investeriod.
The US has 50% of its states with Covid almost a non factor now. The other 50% are catching up. You don’t need more data - the virus will spread for 2/3 weeks and then numbers drop off. We are approaching the drop off part. Posting those numbers is pointless if I’m honest. They have 6.5 times our population of-course it will take the virus longer to go through the population.
Fyi, for anyone that’s been to the US (east coast exception) - NO-ONE is social distancing. Nobody cares. Literally.

Good news for cinemas when they open!

A very good point indeed sir! And I completely agree.

Also those who have decided against flying away this summer will definitely head to the big screens.

You got in at a great price if I’m honest. And I don’t see CINE retesting those lows again unless something huge happens. Time is your best friend!! Halfords etc have gone above and beyond Covid levels. Greggs is almost there - CINE I’m sure will be pushing £1.20-1.50 as a min. When? I don’t know - it may be 2 weeks from now or perhaps 4 months. But anyone who has been trading a few years will know these timelines are incredibly short for the profit margins we are seeing!

Me and the Mrs visit the cinema at least once every 2/3 weeks. Mostly just us, sometimes with other people.
We always get a large popcorn and 2 tango ice blasts. Completely overpriced - those 3 items cost us over £15. But it’s a day out - not a day to be cheap (if I genuinely couldn’t afford it, that is ofc a different matter & being sensible not cheap).

The queues for popcorn / ice cream / drinks are always packed.

I don’t see that changing with Covid. But investors may want some reassurance, can only see it being good news once cinemas open and everyone can see for themselves how busy they are!

There surely can not be any doubt as to whether or not people will visit the cinema.

Look at what’s happening all over Europe -! Look at the UK, I live close to Marble Arch in London - and both Oxford st & Westfield shopping centre had queues for miles! Look at the petition to close Bicester village after thousands of people packed the place out (1/2/3 feet away from one another without a care in the world!).

I am currently in the US for work (2 days/West Coast) and although most places are either closed or operating at 25/50% capacity - people *want* to go out! In the bar last night and there was zero SD!

Investeriod, though you make some valid points at times - this isn’t one of them. Nowhere near enough people will be *frightened* to go to the cinema. Great news for CINE.

Ofc I have no idea what the SP will do over the next 4-8-12-16? Weeks. But as far as public opinion goes -it’s a no brainier people WILL flock to the cinemas! Which is great news SP wise :D

Your friend is 100% correct Portland.

All UK hospitals were also doing the same (if Covid suspected, covid on DC).

This policy, however, has now changed. A patient must have a positive COVID test to have it put as cause of death.

In terms of over hype - of course it was when you look at the long term damage it has caused. The UK had already reached peak infections when lockdown was announced. A report was released just this week (type it into google and have a read)! The head of Europe’s disease prevention also advices against complete lockdowns.

A much more sensible option would have been to shield the most vulnerable. They’ve accounted for 50% of COVID deaths in Sweden for example, and a few weeks ago i believe (need to double check this) it was 30-40% of UK deaths. Shielding was the way to go. Not a complete 2 month lockdown !