Member Info for WimbledonTom

The glorious Tom. March 1st 2022. SP 105p

"FTSE down 1.75 vs ITV down 4.5%. Always happens this way and this board needs to be the place where investors get wise to these trends.

I would hope the Dame pays out for the good last financial year and then pulls the dividend due to uncertainty caused by Russia.

Thursday I expect to be good but sadly I worry that big institutions will see an opportunity to bailout tomorrow and first thing Thursday. Could be carnage here."

ITV loses 3p only to take it back within hours. Can never predict what will happen next. If you look at 12 months ago the share price lost about 10p in the week before results. Then it went back up initially on results day. Then the terrible crash to 80p and below kicked in.

It has been a slow day here. A slow week. Not much movement. So what on earth caused that sudden spike two weeks ago? I was expecting further sudden movements to occur after that half a day spike.

Was somebody testing the waters. Trying to see how much they could buy and how much the SP would rise? Trying to figure out how much a hostile takeover would cost?

Ironknut, as you possibly know I am one of the boards biggest cynics. 12 months ago I called 90p before the results and got it very wrong as this fell from over £1 to below 60p.

I am of the opinion though that change has happened here. ITVX is not the total disaster that Britbox and Hub were. I think the post covid high of £1.30 is actually where this company should be given its revenue and profits. ITV is adapting to a changing media environment. Eventually freeview/digital will be switched off and everyone will be using Apps installed on devices to access TV. ITV with assistance from government will hopefully be there installed by default for every device going out to UK homes.

When I look at the number one commercial channels in France, Belgium, Spain, Netherlands and Germany I see trash tv broken up by huge advert breaks. Germany it takes a whole night to just watch a Hollywood film. ITV is way ahead of its European counterparts and it is making drama and tv that can be sold the world over.

I am happy to get behind this brand. I wish some of the BoD would take early retirement and let younger and more creative talent come through. £1 is a realistic SP. FTSE100 is a side show that ITV does not really need. 250 is the right league for it to be in.

Now Ironknut can you put your reasonsing as to why £1 is out of reach by the next ex dividend date?

Solley I spent over 3 months in Scotland 2021/22. Never saw any Burns recitals and certainly never ate haggis. Much nicer people than the English. You need to go up there and revise your stereotypes. They are very switched on. More politically aware than the average Brit and that is reflected in BBC news output where Scots make up a disproportionate number of political journalists.

You might actually benefit from being around Scottish people. You would need to up your game!

Pay no notice to Trup. He/she comes out with random stuff and likes to get angry for no reason.

Nicola like the Dame made some bad decisions and was all wrong on timing. Stopping oil and gas exploration in the north sea whilst promising higher levels of spending than rest of UK was never going to work. Scotland needs a generation to build up green energy. Until then you cannot cut off the hydrocarbon money just to keep the greens in your government.

Yes this share is odd. You try to apply human herd behaviour here and it just fails. I was expecting casual investors to be moving in here for the results. Every news article and the usual motley fool garbage are positive about ITV now. ITVX is everything the hub and Britbox were not. I even went out and bought a Cupra.

Jed my experience here and in other shares is the SP usually plummets 5-10% on the ex divi date. Often it pays to sell the day before and then wait for the mass sell off on the day. Try to profit from the dividend chasers who move from share to share.

Putting a limit order in place and only losing 1-2% in the first minutes of trading might also work if you collect the 3p dividend, sell and then buy back within 1-2 hours at a SP that has dropped another 3%+

EE shut down their TV service in 2021. They offer Apple TV or BT sports as part of a bundle now. So consolidation looks to be happening. Vodafone are always 2 steps behind their competitors. They were no.1 in the UK but are slowly fading away.

Front page of the FT this morning. Vodaphone and Liberty buying huge stake. Someone thinks it merits attention.

Jed switch the browser you use. Chrome Edge Firefox etc. Used to get issues with my accountants portal until I started opening it with another browser and then it loaded first time every time.

Nice to see Jed is ever helpful. Ex divi date will be announced on March 2nd and confirmation of the dividend payout for 12 months?

Jed will you be attending the AGM in person this year? Can we get you as the forum spokesman? Get some questions to you to ask the Dame in person?

Me? I am very positive but at the same time very nervous. I have a lot of money here. I just look at last years results to see what can happen if Carolyn does not deliver what were good results in a way in which the market likes. Positive spin.

15 days of trading until results. If only the SP averaged 2p rises everyday we might be back to where we were 12 months ago. Then on to ex divi date.

Tough decisions to be made here.

Risk vs reward. Once this goes over £1 the risk side becomes potentially a loss of 40p in SP vs a 3% dividend on ex divi day and a potential rise by 20p in the following 2-3 months.

Sometimes it makes sense to get out maybe too early and move to a share with higher potential upside.

Being hyper vigilant is good. Trying to see potential hazards before they emerge. I admire drivers who are watching all the cars in front. They spot someone asleep at the wheel 5 cars ahead on a motorway before the driver then cuts someone up causing everyone to brake.

Has not reached these heights since March 2022 when the BOD drove ITV SP over a cliff.

I am hoping Carolyn can stop this sliding back after the results but she does not inspire confidence. I think the shorters will all be chattering over the next few weeks about how much they will be able to wipe off these gains once the Dame speaks on results day.

If this goes over £1 then it becomes a gamble. Big dividend vs slide back to 50s as happened in 2022.

Shauny I am going to love ITV coverage of Superbowl. First time in my life I am staying up and meeting up with US friends to watch at a bar. Got an Eagles shirt but do not care which way it goes. 6 nations was also not bad

The upturn is happening. Volume of shares traded is a great update. Kind of news we need to hear. The Goldfingeresque rubbish talk of takeover should not be entertained here especially at current price. If this was over £2 then you could rightly speculate that potential bidders are circling. Below £1 says nobody is in the market for ITV as a whole.

Takeover target.......Yawn

That was 2018 when the SP was over £2. Everyone had piled in and expectation was high.

Nobody other than inpatients of the Royal Bethlem now expect a takeover here. More chance of Arabs buying MKS.

Nice bounce this morning. Maybe, just maybe this is not the time to open a short.

I am sitting tight for two weeks. Holding. ITV SP is so volatile. Other shares I have barely move or just creep up.

Timing is critical. Do I bailout if this hits £1 or do I wait for results. Do I hold for ex divi date as that dividend is huge but risk another Mccall style collapse in confidence through incomptence at the top?

Why am I a magnet for idiots?

My posts make it very clear that I have a substantial holding here. I am in for the results or £1. Not hoping for a fall anytime soon, neither do I foresee a repeat of last year here. Hoping this gets back over £1, back in to the FTSE 100 and stays there.

Unlike most of my detractors I actually have worked at ITV and have reason to be loyal and want the company to thrive.

It is all Bank of England and Fed driven I think along with the weakest of rumours of an interested party in ITV studios.

Results you wont get a peep until March. Opportunists will start to notice ITV maybe more now with talk of M&A and pile in earlier for results.

We could be 90s before the big day. Then just a guessing game as to what the high will be here.