Member Info for WimbledonTom

86p is possible. It dips after ex divi and then creeps back up.

I am hoping for an announcement at AGM which will push this into 90s. Then it is get out of this in the early summer if the Dame remains. We will have 10 months of inactivity here until next FYR in February under McCalls stewardship. Buy back after schools go back and make another 20-30% by February when hopefully revenue remains solid.

Looks lie it will close 83-84. I was holding out for 85p today to sell here.

Tomorrow this will go down to 78p is my best guess. Good luck with selling early Jed. Busy times like that it is hard to get orders processed immediately and they offer you market best. By the time you get a sell order through it loses another 1-2p.

This will sink fast and then a bounce back of 1-2% in the afternoon to finish somewhere around 78-79

So buy now or on the 13th when the price will drop more than 3.3p?

ITV SP always gets hammered on the downward movements so 5p off the SP on Thursday???

She invested in ITVX. The right thing to do. But she failed to convince the big financial institutions that she knew what she was doing and give clear indication that it would deliver. It is now delivering but investors in ITV still lack confidence in the Dame. A good CEO inspires confidence. Carolyn looks amateur. Your average Headmistress gives better presentations.

The partial sale of ITV studios briefly worked. People thought she was serious. She has now admitted that ITV studios as a whole are not for sale and everyone has lost interest again (maybe a part owner will be revealed at the AGM). The share price is moving downwards as we wpeak and the Dame's one attempt to get the SP back to where it should be has fizzled out.

You have to cut your losses in business. The Dame is a lightweight. She cannot see off investors who are pushing the price ever downward. We just hear so little from her about direction and initiatives.

I invested in Tesco after the accounting scandal. Dave Lewis was worth every penny. He stripped out all the waste. Sold stores, cut hours, chnaged everything about the company. He sold off the overseas vanity projects and paid off debt. Somebody with that laser like precision is needed at ITV. The Dame is just too vague. Too bland. Too silent.

Small lift may be coming to all shares in next few weeks.

The bomb in St Petersburg was a reaction to far right groups in Russia openly mocking Putin. Tatarsky a Donetsk rebel thought he could go to Putin's hometown and be openly critical.

Trepova is now looking more and more like she was trained by Russian security forces. An anti war protestor does not walk to calmly into a hostile meeting, joke and present a bomb. The footage shows her then leaving after the bomb goes off. She is calm throughout. She knows she has security forces and police backing. She is trained. The explosives are high quality. It is a military operation.

Stories coming out of Russia is that Vlad has bunkered down. Foreign governments and corporations are telling their people to avoid close proximity to government offices.

It is end game in the next few weeks. Very dangerous for the whole world but if regime change happens and we all survive unscathed then this will be a big boost for the global economy. A big cloud will life.

May day parade could be a day of celebration.

The Dame has had 5 years. 14.8million. The share price has gone from over £2 and is currently heading back to 70s.

FTSE 100 to FTSE250 and she has no clue as to how to get a decent valuation placed back on this company.

SAF quickly found his feet.

I made a comparison to Patrick Viera. A good competent guy whose team is mid table. He is maybe not the best tatically but what he has done is rejuvenate an ageing Palace squad and brought in lots of young boys to the first team. Boys who get overlooked by the big clubs but at Palace will go on to play for England. He got the boot after playing the top 8 teams in short succession and not winning enough games. Roy Hodgson has come in and shown the foundations of the team are solid. They are mid table and can win against the weaker PL sides.

Carolyn by comparsion to Patrick has been an absolute disaster for 5 years. She should have resigned. She should have been sacked. It is only her gender that saves her. Any man in her position would have gone by now. She is clinging on and refusing to address the most important part of her role which is to defend the share price and the company from external threats.

AGM she needs to resign. I asked her to go last AGM. She has failed to turn the share price around and we are back to the 70s after ex divi day. She needs to fall on her sword or ITV employees need to push her out the door. All packaging and no substance and even her presentations are really amateur.

Vote Ant and Dec

Dame Carolyn was awarded 2.4million in bonuses in 2022 which were linked to company performance. That was on top of her salary of 1.1million.

When I asked at last years AGM if she was worth the money considering the fall in share price, the HR board member said that high level reflected the pre ITVX announcement performance of the company. So the period coming out of Covid where revenues rose and the share price clawed its way back up to £1.30.

So after the abysmal 2022 results presentation and a share price that has averaged 70-80p for the last 12 months we can expect a much smaller bonus for the Dame this year although revenues have remained consistent so she may get wriggle room there.

Will search now for 2023 salary and bonus announcements for the Board. We should have them before the AGM.

Oh and Trup I should not ignore you. You are desperate for my attention.

I am a ramper for now. My best guess is hold until the AGM. Anything could happen there and maybe Russia Ukraine will be reaching endgame. We could possibly reach 12 months highs in June-July. After that take the summer off and come back in Autumn. It worked out so well last year as the share price went from 80p to 53p in a few weeks in August and September.

I take a different perspective to Peachy. 12 months ago I thought Russia would succeed with regime change in Ukraine. That htye would grab some areas but then turn it back into a Russian client state. I feared Putin would then move the armoured columns up to the Baltics and the EU and UK would have had to engage in all out war to protect Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.

Now the situation is drastically improved. I predict Russian military collapse in parts of Ukraine. The Russians and their mercenary groups have fought hard for Bakhmut but have forgotten the lessons of Stalingrad. The Russian spring offensives will amount to nothing and instead the Ukrainians will make rapid advances and encircle and trap large numbers of Russian forces. By summer, maybe even by late May the Russians will be admitting defeat. Can the Putin regime then remain in power in Moscow? It could turn ugly in Russian cities with loyal Putin forces fighting to the bitter end.

China would be crazy to move on Taiwan. Xi is far more grounded in reality than Putin. China can take Taiwan but the cost is too great. They can slowly win over hearts and minds and eventually bring about a peaceful unification.

It is not in China's interest to destablise global economy. That would even weaken the Communist parties control over China.

We are heading back to a more peaceful global situation. Iran and Saudi is cooling. India vs China is relatively quiet for now. Putin is hopefully heading for retirement at a nice remote Dacha.

End of the war in Ukraine could lift this stock. 10p or more, maybe pushing this over £1

Peachy you got to resist the urge to be doing something rather than nothing. Things could change in the next 6 weeks.Ex divi date will see a gradual rise andthen sell off.AGM we could be caught out with a sudden announcement (the Dame might be shuffled off).

After that we have a poorly performing UK economy and most likely 10 months of stagnation here through until next years full year results. Getting out in May or June to buy back in October can really pay off.

Realistically I think £1 is no longer a 12 month high here. Lucky if this gets back in the 90s. Then as for lows. Anywhere down to 60s is possible in next 12 months.

If ITV employees and ex staff with more invested than us guys could just somehow persuade the BoD that a new CEO is needed here. One that the markets like and respect.

14.8 million and the share price has more than halved. If the Dame was a man she would have been sacked or would have fallen on her sword. There should be no room for charity at that level. Poor performance = P45. Patrick Viera has gone for less whilst keeping his club in the top flight.

Okay it has been pointed out before that ITV is largely owned by a few big institutions. What I can see happening is "poop and scoop". They put the same value of buys and sales through but the sells are much larger in number creating a false impression that there is a sell off happening. They did this with great success after last years results. I can only imagine that possibly one or more individuals may have mentioned 50s as the scoop point. Those big investors then vacuumed up the cheap shares. They are now sat on much larger numbers of shares and a bigger valuation.

Right now we are somewhere on the upside. The big guys I am guessing still want £1 and above. Once that is achieved they will "poop" again and scoop up the low value sales.

Problem we now have though is most small investors who ultimately feed these rich investors their retirement savings have grown wise to this. Anyone following ITV for a number of years knows that the small guys get burnt. More and more investors are pulling out and looking to buy back in at lower values. So the rise up to £1 and above is getting harder and harder to pull off. Even the Goldfinger and Nigeco buyout rumours are now laughed at. Rampers are increasingly transparent here.

What needs to happen is the BoD and Carolyn get a grip on this. They get a fair valuation of the business and then the share price might start to reflect that. In future the poop and scoop buys will hopefully get burnt and then hipefully their managers show them the door.

Until then we all just watch as the SP is manipulated week by week.

£5.99 a month is currently very cheap. If more households signed up then I guess you bump the price up.

10 million households paying £70 per annum for ITVX is barely break even unless ITV start using analytical cookies and then using that data in conjunction with advertisers so that when the family move away from ITV they are then targeted with adversiting in their usual browsers or other apps where they are not ad free.

Janus a scenario for you. Tesco clubcard are given access to ITVX to target their customers. They know a family who were loyal customers are online watching Corrie most nights. They also see that the family that previously spent £200+ a week in store have switched to Aldi. The Tesco and ITV software targets them with price promotions and discount codes on the products they buy the most. It also offers discounts on the holiday they were looking at booking in the summer. As a result the subliminal messaging works. The family move 10k in spending a year back to Tesco. They book the family holiday to Majorca at the same time. ITVX has secured those advertisers additional revenue where previously linear TV would have not been able to alter those patterns of behaviour.

Who controls the mass media is going to be important once again. For decades the advertisers have given up on traditional TV as a marketing tool.

Janus you cannot see the optimism?

Lets break down the last 12 months for you.

March 2022 profits are a good 700 million. The dimwit Dame drops ITVX on the markets with no real pre warning. An article in the FT at the time says SP drops on the analysts forecasts that profits will fall to 550million as a result of increased spend in ITVX. Share price pre ITVX announcement is £1.10 to £1.20

Fast forward to March 2023. The analysts dire predictions have not happened. The increase in spending on ITVX has been largely absorbed by the business and profit levels are only marginally down.

Instead the position now with ITVX is vastly improved on the sub standard HUB and Britbox offering. What you have now is a media company that is successfully transitioning from linear broadcasting to being a tech company that specialises in data harvesting and targeted ads. Us consumers are worth nothing on linear but once we move ITVX we are way more profitable. Advertisers want viewers who they know the spending and browsing habits of. ITVX creates huge potential for synergies between ITV and its advertisers. ITV's data. ITV's harvesting tools will become worth billions. In time ITV data harvesting will come to rival Tesco clubcard. Who else gets 10s of millions in viewers and can compile so much information on spending habits and profile the British population? Supermarkets and ITV.

Brand ambassadors then rather than CEOs. You could send the two of them to tv and media companies around the world to drum up global alliances and content sharing across territories. Britbox has failed to take off and it looks best if each nation creates their own platforms and then hosts other countries content in return for content of their own or a share of the advertising revenue. Think of it like airlines agreeing on code shares.

That way ITV studios and ITV studios US content reaches a global audience through the already established market leaders in that territory.

Those two could walk into any boardroom (Carolyn can hangout) and win over the hardest of execs.

Global stategic alliances will turn ITV into a global brand.

She comes across better for a Variety magazine article than she does in her own presentations.....

https://variety.com/2023/global/features/itv-carolyn-mccall-4-billion-company-jeremy-clarkson-1235537423/

I would suggest that people opposed to Dame Carolyn McCall remaining as CEO make their voices heard. The vote at the AGM is always a box ticking exercise but I suceeded in getting a question to her at the AGM last year asking for her resignation (37 minutes in). I am tempted to go in person this year.

She gives bad to very average presentations. She fails to set the room alight. Her CFO was more polished than she was yesterday.

She has tried unsuccessfully to reverse the SP crash. The option to buy part of ITV studios in an attempt to get a fair valuation has briefly rallied the stock but not to anything like where it should be. She has now said that the Studios as a whole are not for sale, so that bluff is not going to work anymore with the markets.

For £3million a year we are getting a very bad deal. She has a FTSE100 remuneration package and looks to be set for another 3 years. We need someone who knows how to play the markets. To get the big investors in ITV behind the brand rather than playing about with the SP. We need someone who has come through the ranks at ITV. Who gets the culture and the direction it needs to go in. Somebody who can put a presentation together that looks more like Ant and Decs Saturday night takeaway and less like a webcam in a grotty corner of Grays Inn Road.

Someone who is younger and dedicated to ITV. Who will seee out the next 20 years meeting with senior media CEOs globally and winning business deals and bringing in exciting commercial partners.

Ditch the Dame. Make Ant and Dec CEOs for life

I think the spike was somebody testing the waters for a takeover. They saw how quickly the price rose on a relatively small buy.

Anyway Jed, no reversal of position. I am happy with the direction of ITV. It is moving to being a technology, data and creative media company. Just the BoD look more like the BBC. Political appointees and quasi civil service. They need a revamp. Nobody dresses like that below the age of 50 in the modern workplace. They need to be more intune with the big streamers, media execs and the new companies who are going to want to advertise on ITVX.

Bring in new talent. The CFO was good yesterday. Carolyn still comes across as very average.

The thing that worried me most was how and where they delivered the presentation. The Dame wears terrible brown colours. Initially she and the CFO were stood in front on a cheap office partition. They then sat down at a desk but there was a gathering of senior staff which consisted of mostly old white guys in suits (no ties) huddled in a corner.

You have city analysts tuning in to see a cheap production. Surely someone in ITV can put together a better backdrop and maybe even a studio set next time? They also need to get the wardrobe department to dress them like new media or tech company execs rather than the old school business execs who must look out of place in the creative and media world.

When I worked at BP there was no expense spared. They knew the importance of projecting the right image in result presentations. Looking at just the style over content today at ITV you see a company still living in the past who do not seem to get the importance of how much they are judged on results day.

Thank God their tv productions are better made.

SFOR share price has halved in last year. Barely moved in months now. You can be breaking even at best and yet I told you to buy back here in September at 56p......

Commiserations. Yet again you got the timing all wrong.