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The macro market looks good. Where the hell is Affidx ???

Past caring about the LFT!

Wyn, it is very costly , agree, but then so if shutting down the economy when the NHS gets 'overwhelmed' which looks to be nailed on sometime around Jan - hence another lock down is imminent

I hope so Energy. The fact that Avacta and AS appear to be relaxed about the current share price does lead me to speculate that bigger things are at play in the background.... If not I do believe that AS would be much more active with comms related to managing the share price / attracting new investment (as he did during the dev of the LFT).

While Avacta have many known projects cooking there is a reasonable potential for a new wild cat deal that takes the market by surprise.

Is this a 2nd chance for Avacta? It is a bitter sweet moment I feel... great news for me as an underwater Avacta shareholder, but really terrible news for life getting back to normal. Make no mistake, this new variant will be sufficient to tip things over the edge for the NHS, meaning you can guarantee that greater restrictions (lock down) are coming. The gov will need to throw everything at this so expect another massive increase in testing volumes and dare I say, sovereign testing could be back at centre of gov policy.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/04/uks-progress-on-covid-now-squandered-warns-top-scientist

“The longer this virus continues to spread in largely unvaccinated populations globally, the more likely it is that a variant that can overcome our vaccines and treatments will emerge,” he writes. “If that happens, we could be close to square one.

The emergence of the Omicron variant shows that the world is “closer to the start of the pandemic than the end”, one of Britain’s most senior scientific figures has warned, as he lamented a lack of political leadership over Covid.

Headline for todays papers. COME ON AS!!! Now is the time!

Hold onto your hats all!!!

Are they now stating the following as a fact?????

When added to a chemotoxin, the pre|CISION™ substrate prevents the chemotoxin from entering cells and therefore renders it inert until the substrate is cleaved in the tumour microenvironment. Using this pro-drug approach, the systemic exposure to the chemotoxin is dramatically reduced, and the safety and therapeutic window of these powerful anti-cancer treatments is improved.

Could be interesting today.

Sounds as though confidential missed the bottom!

Good luck trying to buy in the bell

I think the creation of Meduflow is price sensitive information and the market requires an update in the form of an RNS.

Please correct me if I missed anything (I've tried to switch off pending news such as this, due to the content of this bb and being massively underwater) but we only ever had 'rumours' that Medusa were planning to manufacture AffiDX? Avacta never disclosed that medusa would be manufacturing?

With the creation of Meduflow it looks a cert that medusa are manufacturing. If the rumours of capacity at 30m are also true.....

Interesting news for sure. THose watching/familar with Affimers and Avactas work in this field will be looking more closely now as the proof of concept now looks more compelling.

Importantly, Affimers also offer that all important freedom to operate, which is not in place using Antibodies.

Id say this news really is quite signficant for Avacta and I hope they provide some commentary

Good to see that CHAR will progress with the Appraisal well, with or without a partner.

Is there any chance a partner will come on board prior to the drilling?

Almost certainly part of the standard T&C of an elite sports team / brand that they will not permit association without prior approval.

I also believe that the Dx / LFT is progressing (deals, capacity, HUA) beyond where the market currently expects. AS has been crucified (I dread to think of the mail he has received from PIs) due to his missed deadlines etc. He also must have been totally embarassed by his soon, shortly, very shorty commentary. I think he has learned from this and, for milestones not currently in our hands, he will no longer to commit to firm dates.

Zoom,

They have likely closed many large volume commercial opps. AS confirmed that they were currently selling direct, in addition to selling via Calibre. Aside from a really large contract with an airline, most direct sales contracts would not warrant an RNS. Even the volumes supplied to large businesses, unless regional/global in scale, do not really move the needle in terms of revenues. Multiple such deals obviously do though, hence I dont think AVCT will RNS such deals unless really large (e.g. airline deal).

As an example, see below case of GSK paying $445m upfront to MErck following succesful P1 data. Avacta could have 'initial' positive 'very data rich' P1 data by year end.

When the companies signed the developmental collaboration for bintrafusp alfa, GSK made an upfront payment of €300 million (about $445 million) to Merck KGaA. Additional milestone payments of up to €2.9 billion ($3.4 billion) were to have been made. However, because bintrafusp alfa failed to meet milestone goals, Merck KGaA said no additional payments were made to the company, and no future obligations remain that are related to this deal.

https://www.biospace.com/article/gsk-and-merck-kgaa-break-off-4-billion-oncology-collaboration-following-multiple-trial-failures/

I see that some of the Trolls such as Eggy have been trying to push the trial length as a negative. Investors should understand that while the time to full commercialisation is 2+ years, delivery of positive data by year end will undoubtedly see a long queue of partners (Big Pharma) who will be keen to step in and fund phase 2 and beyond. At this very early stage (e.g. Q1 2022) Avacta will be able to command game changing up front payment, milestone & future royalty payments that will be transformational.

Without Covid and the susequent LFT, I think we would be trading far higher than we are right now.

The LG Chem news coupled with the positive guidance related to AVA6k (commencment of further recruiting acitivity + positive market guidance from CEO AS) more than supports the current MC.

THe crazy thing is that even with lower than initially expected LFT revenues, the fact that AVCT will be generating revenues (with potential for huge revenues) should be super charging the current valuation.

The market will soon get over the dissapointment regarding billion dollar revenues and start to price the huge potential that not only remians, but is beginning to look very achieveble!

It is a 50/50 chance. Either;

1. The current patient has relapsed or progressed on standard of care treatment or;
2. Was deemed to be intolerant or nonamenable to SoC treatment

If it is the latter, then clearly it is very signifcant that the patient has had 3 high doses and the outcome remains positive!

This is bigger than I suspected TBH.