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Can’t see how Greg Fitzgerald can survive this.

Wimps have just sold 107 houses to Lloyds Bank rentals business. This bulk sale may be booked for this year, ensuring numbers at top end of forecast as reiterated at last trading update. However, may not get booked until next year, in which case I would assume that Wimps are happy with this years numbers and should help for next year. See what gives at the trading update in mid January.

Builders definitely taken a hit in last couple of months, me thinks disappointing reaction to Labour's budget as no real plan for growth or stimulus for the housing sector.

https://residentiallandlord.co.uk/lloyds-bank-boosts-private-rental-sector-with-new-homes-in-suffolk/

Yeah, I have, and will continue to add, to my Wimps holding. Just have to accept that it's a political stock, which bounces around at the whim of Politicians. If you do a ROI calc for last ten years, you will see a non compounded return of over 10% per annum up to a couple of months ago. Which is almost Buffett Like. Just need to accept the volatility which is inbuilt to the sector and you will do well. Wimps are still my pick of the bunch.

Well, SP jump reflects Markets relief that VLX not to pursue TT bid.

Re Wimps out of favour. I was wondering whether the Market was marking Wimps down harder because of their large land bank, and recent purchase. If UK GOV do take the brakes off planning, then one scenario might be that land purchase opportunities may increase negating Wimps current strong advantage . If you compare Wimps with their peers, they have definitely been second best over the last months or so.

Just have to wait until January trading update and prospects will be a little clearer, although the general economic mood music is a little somber at the mo.

IMHO, I suspect this is no more than an anticlimax after the Budget, given Labour’s lack of business acumen. As long as no more cladding directives unsettling the sector things should pick up in the new year One last observation, given the removal of pension IHT relief from 2027, this will likely accelerate money being gifted down the generations of which usually finds its way into the housing market. So sector should sell all they can build at good margins, but maybe lower volumes than previously expected over next couple of years.

Seems Point 72 (ex SAC Cohen), are increasing their short position. Perhaps explains why Wimps struggling last week or two, given they are probably the best of the big builders and reaffirmed numbers at the top end of expectations.

Interesting why Point72 might be building a short position. Of course, there are different reasons for shorting; taking a view the shares are overvalued and planning to buy back at a profit, protecting a long position by balancing (more likely partial balancing) that said long position, opportunistic manipulation further downwards whilst weak sentiment in builders in effort to build a long position for future investment / take private.

IMHO, Wimps are now entering the realms of good value for being taken private by a Hedge Fund. Zero debt, well managed, solid free cash flow and able to spin off £250M in dividends even in current housing market, large land bank to generate extra cash if housing market goes quiet (good insurance for potential acquisitor).

Well just have to see.

Apologies; Lord Waheed Ali

If this was a senior executive in the private sector, then chances are they would have to resign. I expect Starmer to offer his full support ... until the pressure becomes too much ... She will have lost all credibility with peers and contemporaries.

Problem is, who in Labour has any background in high finance / investment banking to replace her. Maybe appoint a Labour Lord. Not sure Starmer's mate Lord Wheel Ali would be acceptable though :-)

Just noticed that Point72 have had their 0.63% short position declared yesterday. Maybe helps explain depressed share price over last few weeks. Either way, we don't know why they would open a short position, is it a genuine short play expecting a further fall in SP, or a hedge to offset a long position ?

Ah, just read your post Kyuso. Pretty similar mindset :-) Divi on Friday should help cheer everyone up.

UK GOV has spoked the markets with its Budget. There has been, and will probably be more CEO's publicly expressing dismay at the NI hike, which will put pressure on Retail inflation and suppress growth as investment is curtailed. Potential for job losses as well.

This is also feeding through to speculation the BoE will now slow down the pace of interest rate cuts, as Andrew Bailly alluded to last week. Plus on an international perspective, seems Trump wants to set a fire under the US economy, again raising fears of inflation leading to sluggish interest rate cuts.

However, Wimps recent trading update was clean and positive, no surprises. Wimps are probably the best managed large builder in UK and this will reflect well over next few years as they are best positioned to take advantage of any growth in the market. Also, committed to paying £250M per year in dividends regardless, which they seem comfortable to do the way they run the business.

I'm just pondering whether to add a decent amount to my current holding at these prices, as all things being equal should prove a profitable investment over next twelve months, or even maybe by January trading update. Hmmm ...

Re NYSE listing. Well, NASDAX would be more appropriate given the size and MM's desire to position the Ingenuity Platform as a leader in the the TECH sector. FWIW, that's delusional.

However, that boat has sailed a few years ago when the market was hot, and SoftBank took an option. Further due diligence and SoftBank stepped away. The US markets will not place a high valuation on Ingenuity as there is nothing special about it, just run of the mill e-commerce platform, with main customer base tied into RemainCo.

It's unlikely that Ingenuity can compete in the open marketplace with the likes of Alibaba, Amazon, Ebay, Tmall, JD.com, Shopee. Just a short list of the major e-commerce platforms out there, all with multi $Billion revenues.

I suspect this is just a salvage operation to extract some value from the current situation, and float off RemainCo as a stand alone business, and hope something turns up with Ingenuity. Of course, time will tell, and non preferred equity will be grossly diluted or effectively tipped out.

316. Don't forget in today's markets where algorithmic trading accounts for the majority of transactions, increased volatility is the new norm. As soon as a share price moves outside of a pre determined range the bots kick in and can effectively move the Market beyond what one would rationally expect. In today's case, no doubt the short focussed algo's took control, and along with all the leveraged traders (SB / CFD) whose positions quickly went under water would have added fuel to the fire.

Once things settle after the first few hours, then the reverse happens and we will get a recovery of sorts. All things being equal, from a macro perspective I would expect Wimps to recover at least 50% from the lowest point with the added incentive for "dividend" traders to enter the market as well, to further support Wimps. Of course, IMHO.

Apologies, posted on wrong BB. Intended for TW.

316. Don't forget in today's markets where algorithmic trading accounts for the majority of transactions, increased volatility is the new norm. As soon as a share price moves outside of a pre determined range the bots kick in and can effectively move the Market beyond what one would rationally expect. In today's case, no doubt the short focussed algo's took control, and along with all the leveraged traders (SB / CFD) whose positions quickly went under water would have added fuel to the fire.

Once things settle after the first few hours, then the reverse happens and we will get a recovery of sorts. All things being equal, from a macro perspective I would expect Wimps to recover at least 50% from the lowest point with the added incentive for "dividend" traders to enter the market as well, to further support Wimps. Of course, IMHO.

Well, Mr Fitzgerald's style is hard charging and he does seem to focus on strategic matters, to the cost of operational controls. When you are both Chairman and CEO, there is nowhere to hide when situations like these occur. See what the major shareholders have to say, as they may start to unload their shareholdings if Mr Fitzgerald resists giving up total executive control.

No doubt some middle level Managers will get the chop, especially as the issue seems to be contained to one particular business unit.

Hmmm, the market is firm to start, which helps. Seems initially, unless the Exec's have a bad call at 0900 hrs, looks like glass half full ...

Sold some land, bought some land. The ale brought in cash to offset higher than expected land purchases, so all in all I'm not too worried about that as plots owned and potential revenue is still pretty much the same.

Will have to see how the market takes the £88M exceptional. Glass half full, or glass half empty ...

I'll go for a tad over last final divi, say 4.8p. Also, likely a tad over that for year end div, say 4.85.

I suspect they value maintaining divi's rather than any heroics, it's a core of Wimps ongoing strategy. Next years divi's will depend on planning being relaxed so Wimps (and others) can open more sites to raise completions. Although that will require large increase in working capital , putting pressure on 2025 divi's. 2026 should be a breakout year assuming all else equal.

Fin. Generally I agree with all your observations. One extra point worth adding re the partnership model, is that many Housing Associations a re currently struggling for cash, and many will have to merge with solvent HA's to survive.

This has yet to fully play out in the market, so all the current hype around some developers signing contracts for HA partnerships will likely cool over next year or so as HA's will fail to deliver cash / land. Unless of course UK Gov injects large amounts of cash into the sector.

Private developers will plough on as you suggest, and should still return increasing returns as the planning pressure should ease somewhat enabling more sites to open. I would never bet against the average UK Joe driving the private sector and wanting to "get on the housing ladder", as this is deep in their psyche

Of course, time will tell.