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Same to you Fred, hope you are on the mend.
Hopefully all the restructuring (OoH) is out of the way now, and steady, if unexciting, growth returning. All eyes on any announcements re distributing excess cash to shareholders, slated for an update mid year. NICL does generate cash, so if the business can settle down and put recent struggles (Covid, OoH, removing some senior staff) behind it, there should be better days ahead.
Any share buy backs should have positive effect on share price, given thin market. Although a capital restructure might be on the cards to address that problem. Just have to wait and see.
Well, steady as she goes. No surprises either way. See what gives at the live update. At least the general market backdrop is positive at the mo, so shouldn’t have any undue negative impact.
Seems the share price is being supported by bid chatter. Take away the bid chatter and the numbers are not convincing, given managements record. Maybe best to see what transpires given the potential for current macro environment to deteriorate drastically.
Although, I am sure the brand is attractive, seems there will need to be a patient buyer who is prepared to bring some operational expertise and money in order to stabilise current situation, and lay the foundation for growth. This in itself will limit the list of potential buyers. If no bid appears, we could see the share price continue to drift downwards. I am minded to wait and see what gives ...
Well, Wimps management have done a decent job of navigating a difficult period, not to mention UK Gov tax take increased to 27.5% on an annualised basis. Priority was to maintain strong balance sheet, maintain dividends and no nasty surprises, they have done this.
I would suggest that this years plan is to do the same, steady as she goes and maintain strong balance sheet and maintain dividends. Hopefully next year will reflect a more normal business environment, post Brexit, post Covid, post Tories ? Then maybe more growth, and uptick in dividends will begin again.
Market doing what the market does, likely professionals set up trades to destabilise the Wimps share price, creating the opportunity to trade and capilitise on known steady results (i.e. no surprises either way), and exploit current CMA newsfeed. Some sells yesterday and today on opening in a overall down market would do the trick. Slowly sell (buy back for shorts), and steady buys as shares recover their composure will turn a good profit.
Still good opportunity for non professionals to add at sub 140, especially if via SB's to collect dividend. With dividend payments a management priority, then underlying share price should recover swiftly from ex div day.
Of course, IMHO.
Hmmm, let’s see. Given the political nature of house building in the UK, the monopolies commission might stick their oar in. Either way, should give a fillip to all builders.
Well, 148.4 has been strong resistance level for a while. If Wimps can close above this level for a few days, then maybe they will push on towards 160+. We will see.
Well, I accept that you can outsource to China et al, and get decent quality. But why take the risk (part from PE priming the ship for an IPO), when you have a longstanding quality brand. How many quality clothing brands risk their reputation and outsource. You won't get high end Italian bags, watches, general fashion outsourced, they are either run by many generations of family businesses, or have been acquired by the big fashion conglomerates.
PE squeezed every last drop of short term profit out of Doc's, then sold. Doc's would be better totally re shored to UK for manufacturing, invest in good e-commerce systems, modern state of the art factory facilities and pay decent salaries. That way they could manage their distribution with simpler supply chains, and more predictably. Peak globalisation is unwinding.
Take Birkenstock as a similar model, all manufactured in Germany, good worker conditions, top brand, strong margins and management that are taking a long term view of a profitable business.
Of course, this would take some undoing of contracts etc., but a long term buyer (not PE) with this vision will be richly rewarded in 5yrs, or so, with a valuable brand and ongoing revenues and margins to match.
Hi Fred
Happy new year, hopefully a prosperous one.
Yeah, I reckon it’s a decent update. Good cash flow given high inflation. No sign of acquisition so far, maybe they will consider a special dividend or possible buy back, given strong cash position.
Either way, things are looking up now they are sorting OoH business out , with a bonus that international businesses looking strong.
Decided to look in here, first time for a couple of months. Seems usual rhetoric continues, ... this time next year we'll be millionaires Rodney ... On a more serious note, becoming obvious that much of the narrative posted is generated via AI text generators. Obviously, that goes for all BB's.
The key issue for the trading update to see if they update on write downs for OoH business. The Vimto packaged business is pretty bullet proof, and any six year could run it profitably. However, it seems current management have have got a grip of the OoH business after years of laissez faire management, and signalled that more write downs expected second half 2023, but benefits in 2024.
Other interesting issues to consider (although unlikely to be in trading update), are founders grandson resigned (he ran the OoH business), maybe disagreements on restructuring. Also, recovery of bonus's paid to management, as £4m write down taken last year as HMRC case settled in favour of HMRC. Will NICL really recover that amount from past and previous management ?
If you click on the link you get the Investors page on Wimps site. Then click on the link below Analysts Consensus, and you will download the latest analysts consensus forecasts.
https://www.taylorwimpey.co.uk/corporate/investors/analysts-and-advisors
Always encouraging when Execs use their own money, to purchase shares.
Interesting news re share holder sticking his head over the parapets with a 3.09% stake. Initial skunk works only reveals that his (and his wife) seem to be Hoteliers, and own (or at least control) the Y Talbot in Tregaron; very nice hotel.
I wonder if their shareholding came from James Nichol (Grandson of founder), who recently resigned from the business to pursue other interests. Maybe he also wanted to sell up. Getting ~3% of Nichols shares is not easy in the Market, so likely to have been via a corporate or family member.
Also noted that he resigned his Directorships from various Nichols subsidiaries aligned with the OoH business (the business unit that is currently being restructured), not before time in my opinion. A new Director of these business units took over, and she is Sarah Louise Caddy. Although she has not been named as his replacement as one of the family Non Execs.
Either way seems something interesting is afoot.
Hmmm, this may the the start of a sector rerating, not withstanding the dire state of geopolitics. UK GOV bonds falling heavily, and I would expect lenders will issue a raft of cheaper mortgages on the back of that over the next few weeks. IMHO, the talking heads new narrative will be much more positive on the sector, helping to push shares steadily higher.
History shows builders usually have a good run November thru February in anticipation of spring pickup. Given where we are with falling inflation this spring should be strong.
Wimps are actively seeking out opportunities for the Spanish business, and by the sounds of it likely at good margin. Without reading too much into this, seems Wimps are comfortable continuing to develop the business and invest, which should bode well for upcoming trading update. If things were bad, I suppose they would have deferred or declined this deal.
https://europe-re.com/quartiers-sells-altura-160-project-for-8-7m-to-taylor-wimpey-es/72313
That should read 500,000 shares.
I'm guessing that because Rathbones (not the bread people :)) and Investec have merged their asset management / Wealth Management businesses, and they released RNS declaring that Rathbones now holds ~ 6.4% in NICL. Since the RNS (25th September), there has been an increase in trading volumes and I am guessing that Rathbones are reducing their stake to below 5%, which would mean a sale of ~ 5000,000 shares. Maybe that is causing a little indigestion.
Either way, at 936 (with very narrow spread) I decided to add some more, even though I am slightly wary about the potential for SP appreciation pending next set of results.
For those with the time, and inclination, the report into the English planning system has been released. In summary, current system not fit for purpose, planning approvals being gamed by local councils, Section 106 and CIL currently driving up house prices. Government putting politics before the general wellbeing of the house building industry and aspirational citizens, and suppressing the affordable housing sector. Sounds a little like HS2 ... government ministers launching vanity projects without consideration for ultimate costs and tangible benefits for UK PLC. Well done Boris, another fine mess you left for Sunak to clear up.
hxxps://events.assemblemediagroup.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/BTFC-REPORT-INTO-THE-ENGLISH-PLANNING-SYSTEM.pdf
BTW, THG do offer a trading opportunity given the general volatility. However, this should be unemotional and strictly for traders who can act this way. Too many on this BB are of the retail type traders who emotionally tied up with THG. IMHO, stand back and take a long hard look at THG history. Then just trade without any emotional baggage, and don't bother follow any BB's
Can't understand why they keep persevering with the "Ingenuity" narrative. Ingenuity is just a large expensive infrastructure vanity project. Every year large infrastructure accounting write downs will provide a drag on any potential growth in the actual business of selling product and developing brands.
THG needs to bite the bullet and migrate from in house IT infrastructure to a cloud based platform ... i.e. pay for IT by the drink, and not by buying the brewery.
Ironic that Matt's adversary; LSEG, also have historically bought and managed a large IT infrastructure. However, their partnership and future migration of IT systems to Microsoft's Azure cloud platform, along with new and cost effective data analytics (AI etc) is currently powering their SP.
THG need to decide, are they an IT business (in which case they are outclassed and underfunded), or are they in the business of developing and exploiting beauty and health related brands. Their current approach is asset heavy, and they need to become an asset light business who can exploit their data to best commercial advantage.
Of course, IMHO.