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If you are interested in tracking the current situation re CMA review.

https://www.gov.uk/cma-cases/investigation-into-suspected-anti-competitive-conduct-by-housebuilders

Expected results are due end of May; next week ?

Oke. "Just hoping the large holders vote him off ...". Well, the share register is of low quality, given the trials and tribulations of the last few years. It's full of retail punters who have in the main lost money, transient day traders trying to scalp a few bob here and there (some very successful), and larger speculators / manipulators trying to make money by forcing corporate restructuring / asset stripping.

All the decent long term investors (pension funds, asset managers, investment banks etc.) have long gone, due to poor overall corporate governance . As Trump is prone to saying, "the swamp needs draining ...".

UK Gilts coming under pressure, especially mid to long term dated. Seems yesterday’s forecast of a potential 60bn overshoot in public finances is spooking the bond markets. Upshot is higher interest rates at worst or no change at best. Builders reacting as you would expect.

The UK Gilt Market is now factoring an 87% chance of a 25% cut in interest rates at the next BoE meeting, scheduled in May. This is the best it has been since last September, when the builders started their strong run before collapsing this year.

It is also now expecting three base cuts this year, rather than recently suggested two cuts. From a UK Gilt interest perspective we are back were we where last Autumn, which supported a strong recovery in builders.

See how it goes, but does seem that whilst the world's markets are suffering a heart attack, UK builders are pushing forward.

DPW. I agree, however given current communications re financial obligations I reckon there is enough room for the £55m to be senior. People more cynical that I, would suggest that MM's record seems to be assets stripping THG, and this is just another play. Of course, IMHO.

Well, without spending too much time to see what others have posted, and without access to detail on convertible terms this seems in MM's favour and not too much of a stretch.

Hypothesis: £55m convertible could well be another nice earner, as its MM is guaranteeing a loan (senior debt so if THG collapses he is front of queue for assets) WIN, option to convert into equity should THG share price rise in future years WIN. Also, I am guessing that MM has borrowed the £55m at advantageous rates and effectively lending to THG at a rate above that. WIN, WIN.

Interesting. J.P. Morgan has a sequence of Equity Swaps stretching out for four years, expiring every few weeks thereof. Usually, this is considered as a bullish sign, similar to playing in the Spread Bet market where you get exposure to equity returns (capital gain and dividends) without the tax obligations that you would have if you owned the shares. You pay a "financing cost" to the counterparty.

Could simply be a hedge against a real holding, or a vote of confidence in Wimps prospects. On balance I would say this is more likely a bullish signal, than a negative signal if J. P. Morgan are getting involves with Wimps. We will see.

Interesting to see how long it takes for Wimps to recover the ex-div fall on Thursday, not withstanding macro economic influences.

For those who have an interest, or the inclination to look at Wimps accounts in more depth , I asked an AI bot (Perplexity) to do an analysis of more interesting aspects (not just the headline metrics).

AI is starting to show value, and there will come a time when all accounts will be instantaneously reviewed, and anything hidden away in the dark corners will be exposed. All good fun.

https://www.perplexity.ai/search/what-is-interesting-in-taylor-YUl0zsVYTMuDkdxHY1NXkQ

Interesting. JP have declared equity swaps which are typical derivatives to either hedge a position, or provide exposure to share price movements without exposure to tax or ownership issues. Why would they take this position is interesting. Maybe they are expecting a significant uplift in the share price over the period (seems next twelve months), or just a straight trade to hedge a current position, which must be small as its not above 0.5 %.

Also interesting that shorts have suddenly closed out their positions. I don't want to set hares running here, but seems the planets may be aligning for Wimps. CEO purchased share in a show of confidence and some one as revered as JP Morgan taking an active interest in future share price movements. We will see.

I see that Wimps CEO (Jennie Daly has purchased £50k shares in Wimps today. Looks like this is a straight forward show of confidence and is reported as her own purchase.

It's worth noting that buys and sells displayed on web sites like LSE are not accurate. Automatic "A" trades are matched via SETS, and as such compose of a buy and sell by investor to investor. Sites like this "guess" whether to book it as a buy or sell by positioning the price within the spread. You will have noticed that when share prices are rising or falling quickly automatic trades are likely to be miss booked. Hence share price closing down, yet these sites usually show more buys that sells.

For Ordinary "O" trades which are investors dealing with market makers are booked from the investors perspective, either a buy or sell. These should be accurate.

You can get a better perspective (for free) if you look at the CBOE Book Viewer:https://www.cboe.com/europe/equities/market_statistics/book_viewer/

You're probably right Tom, these are likely sales due to their LTIP vesting. Although the totals and transaction days don't reconcile. Quick math shows the number sold equates to tax liability on vested LTIP. Around 47% sold by CEO and CFO to cover their tax rate of 45% and NI.

I am guessing that the sales to cover tax go via an "SI" (large broker who buys / sells for their own book). They then sell into the market with a view to making a profit, hence sold some at Friday closing auction (~ bought at 111 on Thursday and sold at 113 Friday). That would explain different dates. So, still more to be offloaded into the market, maybe Monday.

Interesting volume yesterday, 266M traded in closing auction. Plus other significant trades for delayed publication.

Crossley. They committed to buy 12k plots last year, as opposed to 3k in 2023. Total value of owned and controlled land is £60b, as opposed to £61b in 2023. Look under LAND in 2024 Review and LAND under Group Financial Review of the the update for more detail.

Well, the market has not really bought into the potential growth prospects of Wimps. I thought they tried harder to talk a positive story than at the trading update, but I suspect the market is disappointed with future short term prospects.

Question re "would it be better to hold back on the dividend and direct more cash to site openings ...". I thought this was telling.

Whilst Wimps have a good solid business, and not in any danger of finding themselves in difficulties, I think the market would like a little more "red meat ...".

Still, for those who value reliable dividend payments and are less concerned about share price out performance (long term institutions etc.) Wimps have attractions. For the who would prefer increasing share price I don't think Wimps are the best bet at the mo. See where we are in a couple of weeks once the market has digested the results.

Magnum. Well, there is currently an appeal for leave for judicial review of previous bonus share distribution. The complainant says they were discriminated against and that their share holding was significantly diluted, thereby significantly reducing potential gains at the IPO. If the case is allowed to go ahead, this may also open up other grievances. Although this was pre listing on the LSE.

Well, Wimps have set their stall out on a solid dividend policy, 7.5% of net assets or £250m minimum split in two equal payments. There has been no suggestion that this will change at last trading update. So, I can't see wimps reneging on their policy, If they do then expect the share price to take a significant fall.

For me, the issue is whether they will be positive re site openings Unless they talk a good story re opening sites then the "Market" will take a downbeat view. Of course more site openings will require more WIP cash, and this potentially conflicts with the dividend strategy as more capital is required.

We will see on Thursday. If Wimps manage to convince the "Market" of a positive outlook then all should be positive for the share price, not withstanding geopolitical challenges

Weil, I'm sure that investors and potential acquisitors have looked at the contractual tie up with Ingenuity. If the consensus is that it is tight, it's probably not worth the hassle to try and wrest control of THG given its current value as a stand alone business, and reduced asset base (increasingly does not control its destiny re property and subject to the control of landlords). Someone more cynical that I might think it's slowly being asset stripped. What value left in the shell business.

Either way, I'm sure that MM is much more interested in being seen as a "Tech Bro", and not a retailer. Retail is a tough dull business with slim margins. Give it a little while and we might see Ingenuity investors having a shot at an IPO on one of the tech exchanges, say Nasdaq whilst tech valuations are still astronomical. After all, the last IPO went well for all involved :-)

Just my musings of how this might play out going forward over the medium term, If there is money to me made via potential acquisition or IPO its more likely to be in Ingenuity, than THG. Of course IMHO, and always DYOR re investments, as chatter on BB's is not usually worth a candle.

Stay safe out there.

Bear in mind, that MM's favourite child (Ingenuity) needs regular feeding and protection from the ravages of the business world. He needs to ensure that THG continue to feed the Ingenuity platform with traffic whilst his favourite child learns to navigate the world on its own. He needs to control THG for a while longer, just in case new management might severe the umbilical cord that currently feeds Ingenuity (THG tied into contractual arrangements to use the platform and not disappear to an alternative platform; DHL, Shopify, Amazon etc.).

Net result is that THG have one hand tied behind their back with respect to their competition.

Of course, IMHO.

I'm not sure that this will affect the share price in any significant way if the case is allowed to go ahead. Most FTSE companies have some legal wrangling on the go without too much share price drama. Even if THG is found liable, then it would probably be booked as an exceptional, which most analysts tend to look straight through at the underlying numbers.

Although, I would imagine that it's not THG who would be on the wrong end of a case, as it's the directors and shareholders who control share issuance.