Member Info for WiganWarriors

I checked with Barclays earlier today, they say they have not yet received it from Wimps administrators. However, that is unlikely as others have paid it out promptly, so I suspect its floating around in Barclays "back office" somewhere. They did say that they are chasing it up, so it should get credited soon(ish) :-)

Also, seems the Treasury is looking at introducing another scheme to help first time buyers, which of course will help the housing market increase sales. Wimps should be one of the main beneficiaries as they have extra site capacity with current planning approval, enabling them to ramp up quickly to take advantage of increased demand.

As far as I can rennet UK Gov had always had a scheme in place to support the housing market, so I believe the market chatter given we are due an election next year. Always helps to bribe voters.

@Pokerchips. Re highly indicative .. etc. Seems convenient that the company (not external bidder) has issued a note speculating that there may be an offer, depending on the weather, day of the week, alignment of stars, goats entrails, tea leaves etc, just before medioca results announced. We've been here before; remember ... Thats not to say that this speculation cannot be traded, but I wouldn't hang on for any bid to materialise. IMHO the shares will drift down over the next few weeks / months. We will see

Depending where you look … HSBC raises Wimps to Buy from Hod, and target 150 from 105 ??

This episode might just tip the balance in favour of central banks taking a breather from increasing rates. Note Gilts yield have fallen considerably today, improving the Swaps Market, which in turn allows banks to offer lower rate mortgages.

Nah, nothing to see here. The US regulators have underwritten all risks for depositors, and UK Gov is underwriting the UK arm; SVB UK Ltd.

Friday's auction was biased to buys for Wimps, so maybe a decent recovery into the low 120's over the next few days. Of course IMHO.

Interesting that ~79M went through the auction, without moving the price. Seems like his was an "agreed" deal between two (or possibly more) entities who agreed to this arrangement. Let's see what transpires with regard to notifications of holdings by respective parties.

I would read this as positive in so much that there are willing buyers to soak up any institutional / hedge fund selling, maybe Elliott are the buyer. The next couple of days will reveal all.

Interesting to note the new Chairman bought 215,900 shares on Thursday; £250,000 worth. Quite a strong vote of confidence in Wimps, from someone who will know the current trading situation and internal targets for this year.

@adeg1. Don’t think you have been paying attention …

Well, I’ll stick my neck out and suggest that Wimps results and outlook will be more positive than PSN were. Remember it was similar when the builders gave initial trading updates early January, PSN were the more downbeat with Wimps and BDEV more positive given the situation.

I suspect we’ll see a few pence recovery by the end of the week, back to low 120’s(ish).

Of course IMHO and subject to general macro events.

@Mossimo. In theory you are correct. However, any dividend distribution ( either cash or buyback) is at the management’s discretion. Wimps do have a formal policy for dividends based on net assets, so based on that the dividend announcement next week should be similar to previous.

Perhaps another buy back to put the cash hoard to use would be a decent investment, especially as this time the shares can be cancelled and not just held in Treasury for staff incentives, which means they will re appear again.

If we do get another write down associated with OoH business, the should be the last and the business can move on. I suspect it's the uncertainty, and maybe one seller depressing the shares. It's hard to get in, and get out in any volume of NICL without moving the share price.

I guess there might be another 1/4% end of March, depending on data. Either way the BoE rate really reflects the short term overnight rate that Banks lend to each other at, which should work its way through the economy.

However, the BoE can only influence short term rates which does influence variable mortgage rates, and it's the Gilts market that really set longer fixed term mortgage rates via the Swap market. Currently Gilt rates have been tumbling which will get reflected in the fixed rate mortgage offers. Look at the current Gilt rates, and add some profit for the Banks, say 1 - 1.5 % and that's a good guide as to where fixed rate mortgages will be offered at.

https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/government-bonds/uk

We are back where we were early last year re cladding. Gove tried to make developers responsible for building they did not develop, but HBF threatened legal action and Gove backed off. Builders now have to sign legal contract (although this could be disputed and face Court review in the future), which makes they responsible for their own remediation works. Wimps have reiterated that they believe that they will not need to allocate any more money for this remediation, so this should draw a line under it, at least for Wimps.

UK Gov now have to fund, or chase other third parties, for their share of costs; material suppliers, architects etc.

IMHO, Wimps should continue to strengthen as fixed rate mortgage rates continue to decline even after today's expected 0.5% rise. Notice the Gilt are falling as we speak and Virgin just announced 10yr fix below 4%. As usual the media and talking heads have over hyped the potential slow down in the housing market. Swap rates are looking solid around 4%. As usual, the media underestimates the commitment most Brits have when it comes to owning and trading property.

Finally, noticed RDW announced ALL their house will have heat pumps installed within two years, which should push most other developers along the same path making new homes super energy efficient. The market for new houses should stay strong.

Just keep your eyes on the prize ...

https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/government-bonds/uk

Mortgage rates steadily falling, and will likely continue to do so, notwithstanding any major surprises next week from the central banks. Might also get a positive read from the budget for house builders, given their importance to growth in the economy and the need for the Tories to "bribe" voters who want to buy and trade houses. People underestimate the phycological need for Brits to own their own home, regardless of cost.

Hard to see Wimps going backwards from here. IMHO 2023 will see a decent recovery in the share price, albeit with a few bumps along the way.

Sorry, should have said £90m accounting loss, not specifically debt.

Hard to see a way out of this mess. Two breaches of covenants so its in the hands of the creditors really. Only £90m of assets to cover £90m debts, if the creditors call in security then forced sale of assets or just give up and enter administration.

Difficult to see someone looking to take them over as creditors will need to approve, and why would anyone stick their neck out for a troubled business.

Recent CEO must have been shocked at what he saw when he arrived, prompting a quick exit.

Next couple of months will be key. Shame, but once Wicks was decided to get out, the writing was on the wall.

With regards to takeover, the main issue is that the Nichols "family" hold ~ 35% of the shares. Any takeover would require their agreement, and one wonders if they would be willing to sell the firm given their longstanding family relationship.

I suspect that as the trading update only guided for similar 2023 numbers, as 2022, with growth expected in 2024, that we should expect another write down on the OoH business. The results of the strategic review of the OoH business will be disclosed with full year results. Maybe this uncertainty is weighing on the share price.

@Krusty. I would disagree with your take re dividends. The CEO did make a direct point of reiterating the maintenance dividend policy (as I previously noted), so I would take that as its business as usual (likely maintain 4.62p). Note, cash was higher than expected at year end, and so maintaining dividend at ~ £250m looks nailed on for 2023.

However, as they say, predictions are difficult, especially when they relate to the future ... :-)

With respect to dividends, Wimps policy is to base normal maintenance dividends on 7.5% of net assets or at least £250m, throughout the normal cycle. So not based on growth / revenue basis.

Management would take a big hit to creditably if they back track on this policy, given we are in a “ normal” cycle. Especially as interest rates are forecast to flatten, then fall later this year.

Wimps are well capitalised (£700m cash and undrawn revolving credit facility). They should be able to pay out £250m in dividends this year).

IMHO, I reckon dividends will be maintained this year and likely next year. Just look at how the Gilt market is going with swap rates below BoE base rate, which bodes well for further reductions in mortgage rates.

Of course, this depends on the Tories continuing to let grown ups run the economy, rather than Boris or Liz.