Member Info for WiganWarriors

Seems CRST are now willing to accept an improved offer from BWY. That would leave the Elliott (Aggressive Hedge Fund) backed Avant Homes competing bid out in the cold. Avant run by ex PSN CEO Fairburn, he who made ~£90M from the infamous bonus scheme, before having to resign.

Elliott have previously dabbled in WIMPS, and injected themselves into the succession planning

process when PR resigned, with a view to force the recruitment of an outsider. That failed and Jennie Daly was appointed.

Wonder if Elliott backed Avant Homes would now try and swallow Wimps, even though Wimps is many multiples larger. Especially as Wimps have now formally withdrawn from the Cala bid process.

Not long after PR left Wimps, he became a non exec for TPK. Looks like he's just executed a "coup"

The key question is whether Labour can loosen the planing regulations. If so, then the builders will increase build rates. Then market will respond with a revaluation of building sector, if not, then more of the same sideways movement with builders operating on a reduced build level in order to maintain a lower cost base.

Which of course means less jobs, less tax paid and less opportunity for youngsters to get on the ladder.

We will have to see if Labour will live up to their rhetoric and allow the builders to get on with it.

Run. Because the results were announced today, not yesterday. Now it’s in black and white, and at the forefront of investors minds.

Well, VLX are not a simple business given their global operations and multiple tax jurisdictions. VLX is also trying to grow organically and by acquisition, this leads to a complex accounting position, with various opportunities when preparing formal accounts.

Whilst on the face of it VLX are delivering on their business strategy, it also carries risks from unexpected disappointments given the quest for growth, which means that they won't get top notch valuations. Notice the "underlying" and "accounting" differences which may unsettle some investors.

However, given a fair wind, no bad luck and a stable geopolitical environment VLX can prosper.

One observation, would be that I suspect they would receive a higher valuation (capitalisation) if they moved to NASDAQ market, as UK FTSE can be somewhat conservative. Maybe this is part of the plan, given the preference to report in US$.

IMHO, that's my take on why the shares dropped on results.

However,

CRST have suffered a series of mis steps over recent years, which reflects upon the mediocre management team in place. This, plus a cyclic down turn has compounded to send CRST to the bottom quartile with respect to sector performance. If they can work through these difficulties, and under new leadership start to rebuild margins with more predictable earning forecasts, then they do run the risk of being picked off by private equity, or one of the larger builders.

I would expect the management team to rush through new bonus arrangements, and set themselves up with share options, to mitigate this risk and ensure that they, at least, will prosper either way. A little more difficult for the ordinary Joe profit from a recovery. Still, time will tell.

IMHO, there are less speculative investments in this sector at the mo.

For those who pay attention to technical analysis, Wimps need to break through major resistance level of 148.75, and close higher for a few days, then the share price is set to move forward.

I'm not really a believer in looking backwards, but some times these things become self-fulfilling given the high percentage of algorithmic trading these days.

Personally, I would expect that the market will pay more attention to political messaging, given we are in election promises mode. Of course, not withstanding any geopolitically generating volatility.

Same to you Fred, hope you are on the mend.

Hopefully all the restructuring (OoH) is out of the way now, and steady, if unexciting, growth returning. All eyes on any announcements re distributing excess cash to shareholders, slated for an update mid year. NICL does generate cash, so if the business can settle down and put recent struggles (Covid, OoH, removing some senior staff) behind it, there should be better days ahead.

Any share buy backs should have positive effect on share price, given thin market. Although a capital restructure might be on the cards to address that problem. Just have to wait and see.

Well, steady as she goes. No surprises either way. See what gives at the live update. At least the general market backdrop is positive at the mo, so shouldn’t have any undue negative impact.

Seems the share price is being supported by bid chatter. Take away the bid chatter and the numbers are not convincing, given managements record. Maybe best to see what transpires given the potential for current macro environment to deteriorate drastically.

Although, I am sure the brand is attractive, seems there will need to be a patient buyer who is prepared to bring some operational expertise and money in order to stabilise current situation, and lay the foundation for growth. This in itself will limit the list of potential buyers. If no bid appears, we could see the share price continue to drift downwards. I am minded to wait and see what gives ...

Well, Wimps management have done a decent job of navigating a difficult period, not to mention UK Gov tax take increased to 27.5% on an annualised basis. Priority was to maintain strong balance sheet, maintain dividends and no nasty surprises, they have done this.

I would suggest that this years plan is to do the same, steady as she goes and maintain strong balance sheet and maintain dividends. Hopefully next year will reflect a more normal business environment, post Brexit, post Covid, post Tories ? Then maybe more growth, and uptick in dividends will begin again.

Market doing what the market does, likely professionals set up trades to destabilise the Wimps share price, creating the opportunity to trade and capilitise on known steady results (i.e. no surprises either way), and exploit current CMA newsfeed. Some sells yesterday and today on opening in a overall down market would do the trick. Slowly sell (buy back for shorts), and steady buys as shares recover their composure will turn a good profit.

Still good opportunity for non professionals to add at sub 140, especially if via SB's to collect dividend. With dividend payments a management priority, then underlying share price should recover swiftly from ex div day.

Of course, IMHO.

Hmmm, let’s see. Given the political nature of house building in the UK, the monopolies commission might stick their oar in. Either way, should give a fillip to all builders.

Well, 148.4 has been strong resistance level for a while. If Wimps can close above this level for a few days, then maybe they will push on towards 160+. We will see.

Well, I accept that you can outsource to China et al, and get decent quality. But why take the risk (part from PE priming the ship for an IPO), when you have a longstanding quality brand. How many quality clothing brands risk their reputation and outsource. You won't get high end Italian bags, watches, general fashion outsourced, they are either run by many generations of family businesses, or have been acquired by the big fashion conglomerates.

PE squeezed every last drop of short term profit out of Doc's, then sold. Doc's would be better totally re shored to UK for manufacturing, invest in good e-commerce systems, modern state of the art factory facilities and pay decent salaries. That way they could manage their distribution with simpler supply chains, and more predictably. Peak globalisation is unwinding.

Take Birkenstock as a similar model, all manufactured in Germany, good worker conditions, top brand, strong margins and management that are taking a long term view of a profitable business.

Of course, this would take some undoing of contracts etc., but a long term buyer (not PE) with this vision will be richly rewarded in 5yrs, or so, with a valuable brand and ongoing revenues and margins to match.

Hi Fred

Happy new year, hopefully a prosperous one.

Yeah, I reckon it’s a decent update. Good cash flow given high inflation. No sign of acquisition so far, maybe they will consider a special dividend or possible buy back, given strong cash position.

Either way, things are looking up now they are sorting OoH business out , with a bonus that international businesses looking strong.

Decided to look in here, first time for a couple of months. Seems usual rhetoric continues, ... this time next year we'll be millionaires Rodney ... On a more serious note, becoming obvious that much of the narrative posted is generated via AI text generators. Obviously, that goes for all BB's.

The key issue for the trading update to see if they update on write downs for OoH business. The Vimto packaged business is pretty bullet proof, and any six year could run it profitably. However, it seems current management have have got a grip of the OoH business after years of laissez faire management, and signalled that more write downs expected second half 2023, but benefits in 2024.

Other interesting issues to consider (although unlikely to be in trading update), are founders grandson resigned (he ran the OoH business), maybe disagreements on restructuring. Also, recovery of bonus's paid to management, as £4m write down taken last year as HMRC case settled in favour of HMRC. Will NICL really recover that amount from past and previous management ?

If you click on the link you get the Investors page on Wimps site. Then click on the link below Analysts Consensus, and you will download the latest analysts consensus forecasts.

https://www.taylorwimpey.co.uk/corporate/investors/analysts-and-advisors

Always encouraging when Execs use their own money, to purchase shares.

Interesting news re share holder sticking his head over the parapets with a 3.09% stake. Initial skunk works only reveals that his (and his wife) seem to be Hoteliers, and own (or at least control) the Y Talbot in Tregaron; very nice hotel.

I wonder if their shareholding came from James Nichol (Grandson of founder), who recently resigned from the business to pursue other interests. Maybe he also wanted to sell up. Getting ~3% of Nichols shares is not easy in the Market, so likely to have been via a corporate or family member.

Also noted that he resigned his Directorships from various Nichols subsidiaries aligned with the OoH business (the business unit that is currently being restructured), not before time in my opinion. A new Director of these business units took over, and she is Sarah Louise Caddy. Although she has not been named as his replacement as one of the family Non Execs.

Either way seems something interesting is afoot.