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Hmmm, this may the the start of a sector rerating, not withstanding the dire state of geopolitics. UK GOV bonds falling heavily, and I would expect lenders will issue a raft of cheaper mortgages on the back of that over the next few weeks. IMHO, the talking heads new narrative will be much more positive on the sector, helping to push shares steadily higher.

History shows builders usually have a good run November thru February in anticipation of spring pickup. Given where we are with falling inflation this spring should be strong.

Wimps are actively seeking out opportunities for the Spanish business, and by the sounds of it likely at good margin. Without reading too much into this, seems Wimps are comfortable continuing to develop the business and invest, which should bode well for upcoming trading update. If things were bad, I suppose they would have deferred or declined this deal.

https://europe-re.com/quartiers-sells-altura-160-project-for-8-7m-to-taylor-wimpey-es/72313

That should read 500,000 shares.

I'm guessing that because Rathbones (not the bread people :)) and Investec have merged their asset management / Wealth Management businesses, and they released RNS declaring that Rathbones now holds ~ 6.4% in NICL. Since the RNS (25th September), there has been an increase in trading volumes and I am guessing that Rathbones are reducing their stake to below 5%, which would mean a sale of ~ 5000,000 shares. Maybe that is causing a little indigestion.

Either way, at 936 (with very narrow spread) I decided to add some more, even though I am slightly wary about the potential for SP appreciation pending next set of results.

For those with the time, and inclination, the report into the English planning system has been released. In summary, current system not fit for purpose, planning approvals being gamed by local councils, Section 106 and CIL currently driving up house prices. Government putting politics before the general wellbeing of the house building industry and aspirational citizens, and suppressing the affordable housing sector. Sounds a little like HS2 ... government ministers launching vanity projects without consideration for ultimate costs and tangible benefits for UK PLC. Well done Boris, another fine mess you left for Sunak to clear up.

hxxps://events.assemblemediagroup.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/BTFC-REPORT-INTO-THE-ENGLISH-PLANNING-SYSTEM.pdf

BTW, THG do offer a trading opportunity given the general volatility. However, this should be unemotional and strictly for traders who can act this way. Too many on this BB are of the retail type traders who emotionally tied up with THG. IMHO, stand back and take a long hard look at THG history. Then just trade without any emotional baggage, and don't bother follow any BB's

Can't understand why they keep persevering with the "Ingenuity" narrative. Ingenuity is just a large expensive infrastructure vanity project. Every year large infrastructure accounting write downs will provide a drag on any potential growth in the actual business of selling product and developing brands.

THG needs to bite the bullet and migrate from in house IT infrastructure to a cloud based platform ... i.e. pay for IT by the drink, and not by buying the brewery.

Ironic that Matt's adversary; LSEG, also have historically bought and managed a large IT infrastructure. However, their partnership and future migration of IT systems to Microsoft's Azure cloud platform, along with new and cost effective data analytics (AI etc) is currently powering their SP.

THG need to decide, are they an IT business (in which case they are outclassed and underfunded), or are they in the business of developing and exploiting beauty and health related brands. Their current approach is asset heavy, and they need to become an asset light business who can exploit their data to best commercial advantage.

Of course, IMHO.

More favourable narrative, although "fair value of 190p" looks a little optimistic.

https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/taylor-wimpey-earnings-build-cost-inflation-headed-right-direction-shares-cheap

Google "Taylor Wimpey's balance sheet holds hidden value ", or check out Investors Chronicle directly if you can access

https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/news/2023/08/02/taylor-wimpey-s-balance-sheet-holds-hidden-value/

If you cant get through the "pay wall", then google ... "A housebuilder whose dividends aren’t on the line" , and you should get the article

Supportive commentary from Investors Chronicle.

https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/ideas/2023/07/27/a-housebuilder-whose-dividends-aren-t-on-the-line/

Well, we now we know the King had no clothes ... Now results segmented on business unit rather than product type we can see that the OoH business is barely profitable, and this is after the big write down last year. So, hopefully we can now move forward and focus on the packaged business (Both UK and International) driving forward with good gains not being diluted by OoH (see what I did there ).

Hard to see any stellar gains in the share price at the mo, with relatively flat earnings, dividend growth steady but nothing special forecast. They could always pay a special dividend from the cash pile if no "acquisitions" in the pipeline, although I worry about acquisitions given the past record and subsequent write downs in the OoH business.

Unlikely that a takeover is possible without the Nichols family agreeing, as they speak for ~ 35% of the shares, unless the main shareholders in the family agree to unequivocally accept an offer.

Would be interested to know what the strategic position is re OoH; just don't lose money, clean it up and offload (if that's possible given the need to control and manage the Vimto brand), wind it down to minimum footprint offloading all non "Vimto" products, focus on expanding the royalty side of the OoH business as that would be asset light.

Wimps CEO (Jennie Daly) appointed to join Rishi's Business Advisory Council ... give em hell Jennie.

https://www.egi.co.uk/news/taylor-wimpey-ceo-joins-pms-business-advisory-council/

IMHO, I get the feel that this is likely to be the bottom for builders, the usual siren voices and talking heads predicted collapsing prices for most of this year, yet that's not happened and is unlikely to happen.

I expect that the Chancellor will offer some incentive for first time buyers, in order to get that aspect of the market moving again (not to mention buying young people's votes). As long as I can remember UK GOV has always had one incentive, or another, in order to help people buy homes, regardless of which stripe they represent.

Seems core inflation is flattening / falling in (see what tomorrows figures bring), and Gilts are steadying with rates falling back again after the last couple of months wobble. 2 YR now likely to edge below 5% and trend that way. £ vs $ and EUR strengthening, which helps reduce inflation generally, and helps all businesses which import (timber, heat pumps, boilers, kitchen utilities etc), so good for reducing build inflation.

Wimps early redundancy programme (Oxford Business unit in January), and now Redrow culling jobs will no doubt add pressure to UK GOV to get its act together. Rumours are that Gove is backtracking re the " nutrient" issue which has blocked many developments getting planning, and will now be kicked into the long grass pending further review of this divisive policy.

I also expect that the current builders reporting season will be well received by the market, notwithstanding forecast reduction in units (adding more pressure to UK GOV). Builders are much more resilient that they used to be, no debts, flexible build programmes and better executive management. UK GOV just needs to let them get on and build ...

Since the financial crash, and Wimps almost demise, they have paid out 93p cash in dividends (including specials), plus a share £150m buy back last year of 116,942,362 ordinary shares, of which 25,000,000 have been retained in Treasury (to be redistributed in company employee incentive schemes) with the remainder cancelled.

Anyone who bought during the recovery (2009(ish)) will have achieved a simple (not compounded) return of around 12% assuming price paid of around 40p. Warren Buffet has returned around 9% compounded return over last 30 yrs, although this was higher in his early years and has been reduced by recent stock market collapses. So despite general perceptions Wimps have been a solid investment. Although its standard deviation is much higher that Buffet's, which translates as an exciting ride ...

£250m

The last time I looked Mrs Rishi was paying full UK tax, as no doubt is Mr Rishi.

On another matter, be interesting to see whether Wimps much publicised dividend policy stress test will to continue payouts at 20% price reductions and 30% volume reductions. IMHO any slow done in sales and pricing pressures won't get near these tough metrics, so the dividend should be at least £250 per annum, or ~7.5% of net assets whichever the greater. Of course, Wimps BoD reserves the right to choose distribution method, buybacks or cash, or mix.

At these prices some buybacks would be a good plan.

Its times like these that the best managed businesses prevail, and the best sales teams still sell through the slowdown. Wimps does rate highly on both these counts. Also, remember that every year more houses are sold for cash, as inheritance flows down the generations and finds its way into property. As usual the media and talking heads rush to attract attention with outlandish claims of disaster etc., yet in practice the housing market is still trucking along, albeit with lower overall sales and slightly longer time from order to delivery.

Build inflation is dropping fast, prices holding up and incentives are running at 2 - 4%, which will help maintain margins. At a pound per share, what's not to like. Wimps are one of the better placed builders to navigate the "Nimbies" who are relying planning at the moment, as their large landbank provides more flexibility than some of their competitors.

Well, looks like VLX will announce a large takeover with Final results. Funding will require a rights issue, depends how the market takes it as to whether VLX will rise or fall on the news. We shall see.

Seems the non Exec Chairman (Lady) purchase of around 30k shares has had a positive effect. Once they get the OoH business sorted and on a even keel (not losing money), then the main Vimto packaged business should. be able to drive things forward. Of course it would help if a new CFO gets appointed soon(ish), to help stabilise the core management team

17+M went through the closing auction, and was marked as a buy. This usually means that there were more bids (buy orders) than available offers (sell orders). The opposite is true ( marked as a sell) if they’re more offers than bids. So, this indicates that large investors are happy to accumulate at these prices and weren’t able to get all they wanted. IMHO, we should also do the same.

MM, willingly took the "Queens Shilling", and sold his business for mega bucks. He stripped out the property and keep that for his pension, removing assets that would help backstop any future options re cash raise.

MM still thinks the company belongs to him, and behaves as such. The current Chairman appears to be bidding his time and talking the cash, there is no sense that he is working to reign MM in and improve relations with the market / investors.

As for the FT report, they have an excellent track record in investigative journalism. It is worth paying attention to their point of view, especially as MM has a track record of resisting good open corporate management.

Time, as always, will be the final arbiter.