Member Info for WiganWarriors

13.12% to 8.34% dilution, I would say that's significant given the flotation price. As for who is actually liable, that would depend on the actual legal complaint, should it be allowed and not judged out of time. Could be against THG, the Directors or both.

Well, seems THG Directors will be pondering the outcome of the judicial challenge relating to "contested" distribution of bonus shares prior to IPO. ZEDRA Trust (now Corsair PE). judges deciding whether the case is out of time, or can be brought against THG Directors (2016).

Case revolves around Zedra not being given access to bonus shares issued in 2016, which caused significant dilution of their holding at the IPO, and therefore they were denied the opportunity to profit by selling into the IPO at the then elevated share price (remember that !).

If the Judges rule that the case can be heard, then the then THG Directors will be sweating on the outcome as Corsair (nee Zedra) seek compensation.

Well, Wimps do need to be a little more positive in site openings, as they seemed conservative in recent updates. I would assume that they have the potential to do this in respect of planning, although this will initially tie up more money in working capital. Which may mean they feel squeezed in terms of maintaining their dividend policy.

Hopefully they are a little more positive re site openings in the upcoming final results update in a few weeks time. If so, I suspect the Market will respond positively. We will see.

For those who have the interest, or inclination a recent update on the Spanish business. Based on current developer valuations I reckon the Spanish business would be worth around £425m, give or take.

https://youtu.be/Db066n03dEs

Now that the much revered Hedge fund has signalled its presence with a 0.5% short, there is probably something serious afoot. But what ?

Moniman, or is that ex Moniman. I guess you are in denial mode, and are underwater in THG. The world is changing, and once trendy global supply chains are breaking down for more locally implemented supply chains. Onshore is the new Offshore.

Hmmm, US Postal Service has suspended De Minimis ( $800 duty free limit for imported goods) from China and Hong Kong, causing chaos for e-commerce platforms such as Temu and Shein. Around four million packages per day are affected, a lot of manual processing there !

Whilst this is targeting the Chinese platforms to reduce the importation of drugs etc., this may also become a tax issue as well as part of Trumps tariff plans. E-commerce platform will find it difficult to ship to US if this firms up as part of Trumps plan.

Whilst UK may not be penalised, offshoring distribution to East Asia / Asia may turn out to be a bad move. I'm surprised that THG SP (along with other European e-commerce platforms) didn't react to this Geo Political news. Something to watch out for.

Personally, I believe Trump will rescind sooner rather than later. He's not really one to understand the implications of what he says. No doubt he's being egged on by some on his "team" who will no doubt enrich themselves during the chaos, as no doubt will Trump.

However, once it becomes clear that inflation and job losses at home rapidly increase he will need an exit that he can claim is a victory, a little like Putin needs an exit so he can claim victory.

There will be an awful lot of Canadians who will not forget this "betrayal", and they will silently chose to spend their money elsewhere. For example, many parts of the US economy relay on the "Snowbirds" to trek south and winter in the US, with Florida alone benefiting by around $8b per season. Add to that Arizona, California etc and this will have a significant impact on those local businesses and State taxes.

Anyway, we will see. The world is becoming a difficult place to be these days, and I for one am wondering if the Markets are becoming uninvestable for the ordinary Joe, given the amount of consequential and intended manipulation.

I'll sign off before I add too much to the current doom and gloom :-)

Re CMA review of builders collaborating. The review should have arrived at a conclusion end of December, however that has now been put back until May. Either, CMA are prime example of poor civil servant productivity, or UK Gov lack of interest in helping wealth generators to get on with the job. Take your pick ...

Personally I think that SDLT should be paid by the seller, not the purchaser. Which of course, means it’s a CGT and would attract a suitably low rate.

Hmmm, notwithstanding the uncertainty around political rhetoric and playing to the crowd, tourism is a large part of the Spanish economy. They will be careful not to kill the goose that lays the golden egg. Politicians are quite rightly trying to find ways to reduce short term rentals to non citizens and free up property for their own youngsters, which is more likely to be resolved by other means than applying tariffs to non EU citizens. Also, within the EU it would be illegal to charge differing rates of purchase tax to different citizens from different countries. IMHO, I think that this is not a significant issue for Wimps.

Wimps CEO said that ~ 10% of sales in Spain are to Brits, so not too high that they couldn’t be sold to other EU buyers.

More interestingly is what Wimps intend to do with the profitable, but relatively insignificant Spanish business unit ( around ~ 3 %). Should they sell it, or go for growth and develop what is increasingly an attractive and growing market. Personally, I would go for growth as margins are consistently higher than the UK.

Not sure the Market took any comfort from the update call. See what gives over next few days, and hopefully Trump's inauguration won't upset the macro environment. Two weeks for the FED to decide on interest rates (market reckons no change), and three weeks for BoE to pronounce (market reckons 74% chance of reduction).

Yeah, I agree re build inflation. The outlook is more neutral than PSN update, and comments re softer pricing in the south with a little higher in north will worry the Market. Suspect the Market is not too impressed. See if BoD can turn the sentiment around on the call.

Interesting that Wimps have withdrawn from the long promoted York Road development, in partnership with Wandsworth Council. Likely be be some questions tomorrow at the Trading update. Looks like Wimps are continuing to prioritise margin over volume, and are expecting to be able to increase open market sites to compensate.

Hopefully the US inflation data will be benign, which should steady the macro environment for a few days and allow Wimps trading update to be considered on its own merit. Personally, I expect a good update at top end. Then next week we'll have to see what chaos Trump causes with his rash of special executive orders promised on day "one". Either set a fire under the markets, or cause more short term uncertainty :-)

@Dimi123. Next weeks trading update will not declare the dividend. It's a little early as the accounts are probably still being qualified by auditors etc. The divi announcement will come when final accounts published.

Likely just get general commentary on market sentiment for sales, number of houses completed, average price etc. The stuff which they know for sure, but may not have allocated all expenses to appropriate accounts and gained agreement from auditors to discuss account preparation related info.

Well, I suspect that the dividend will be in line with the published dividend policy; 7.5% net assets with a minimum of £250m per year, in two equal instalments.

Management have often quoted this policy, so to change it now without any profit warning would be a very serious matter. IMHO the second half dividend will be a slight increase on the first half (say 0.1p), just to keep the momentum of increasing dividends for investor relations purposes.

Wimps are forecasting around £500m cash at year end (Oct update), so they are able to meet the dividend policy.

Well, VLX have a reasonable piece of the Data Centre high speed connectivity business. Given Microsoft has publicly stated that in 2025 they will spend $80b, yes billion, on AI enabled data centres. Multiply this by the other big players; Amazon, Google, Oracle etc., the that's a few hundred billion $.

Unless Volex really mess up, they should get a decent slice of this business going forward. This alone will significantly outstrip any EV business, and should set up Volex for strong revenue growth. IMHO, VLX are a good buy at these prices given the short to medium term AI splurge of cash likely to be injected into AI enabled data centres. Of course, it will depend on Volex's ability to execute in this space.

Worth considering what the underlying reason for investors shorting listed shares.

Of course some will short shares as a straight trading position, as they believe the share price is over valued for whatever reason; straight forward view that shares are overvalued, suspect accounting manipulation, anticipation of poor upcoming results / sentiment, macro economic outlook etc.

Some will short shares as a hedging play, to protect their long positions. There are various reasons to hedge, not ready to sell their long position, managing their book pending accounting periods, dividend plays etc.

Quietly building a long stake, and using some shorting to hide their intentions and suppress share price rises.

IMHO, given where we are with current poor UK macro economic sentiment, and the fact that the building sector is a political football often used by UK GOV for their own electioneering narrative, its not surprising that there will be a few short positions that poke their heads just over the 0.5% notification limit. I would be more concerned if these accelerated into the low single digits. Although I don't believe that will happen.

Lets see what gives after the sector updates the Market over the next few weeks.

IMHO. I reckon that the deal making team(s) were being pushed to meet stretch targets after all the hype earlier in the year, about how VTY business model would break the normal cyclic model for builders. The sales order book was not properly qualified, and the sales teams were just hoping that all forecasted deals would be signed / delivered in time.

Maybe this is a reflection of Fitzgerald's autocratic style, lack of good sales management / experience, or probably both. Either way, it will take some time before the Market will forgive and trust after what can only be described as a disaster for a FTSE 100 company.

This is a text book lesson as to why it's a bad idea to have both CEO and Chairman roles fulfilled by one person in a large publicly traded company. Without an independent Chairman, who is going to walk a failing CEO to the door.

The only way out of this mess is for Fitzgerald to fall on his sword and new management to take over. Although, the decision might be taken for them, as they could become the target of a take over given current management have no credibility and are unlikely to gain much support from current institutional investors. We'll see.