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@Poker. The additional £200m + is due to increased caution (belt and braces) in interpreting respective regs. This apparently means deeper intervention required, being brickwork and into cavity, rather than just cladding. No doubt all fire regs industry are making hay whilst the going is good.

@Poker. re. "It's unclear to me if Provision for cladding remediation will be posted to TW accounts for their current accounting period" The £200m + has not be accounted for, as they don't expect any cash flow implications in 2025 and 2026, so too far out for cash flow implications

Let's not also forget the Residential Developer Remediation Tax (4%), which Wimps and others have to bear for a ten year period until 2032, even though all remediations must be completed by 2029 ! When you add all the write downs and additional taxes, it's hard to see how builders can prosper going forward.

Can't see many high rise blocks being built in the future by UK based developers. That will be left to the offshore developers who set up a special purpose vehicle, and will collapse that once completed so no comeback for any remedial charges.

Hopefully, might get a little relief if BoE cuts rates next week. If not Groundhog Day comes to mind.

Well, the reason for the recent SP fall has now become apparent. Also explains the additional Hedge Fund short position, as you can’t keep those “unexpected “ right downs secret from professional traders. I’m expecting a bad market reaction. See what gives on opening and after the Exec presentation.

Interestingly Wimps just posted the latest analyst's consensus today, for 2025 and 2026. Consensus dividend for 2025 is EPS 8.6p and DPS is 9.4p. For 2026 EPS is 10.0p and DPS 9.6p. Last year (2024) EPS was 8.4p and DPS was 9.5p.

Yeah, let's be positive :-). Last years half years results triggered a change of sentiment and the SP rose to the high 160's in a couple of months. Only to fall back again when the then expected interest rate(s) cut was shelved. Let's hope for an upbeat outlook from Wimps, and supportive interest rate cut and positive outlook from BoE. Might see 160's again in a couple of months !

Doesn't matter who you vote for at the next election, we'll still end up with a politician(s). IMHO, the only way out of this "Doom Loop" (Dalio) is to cut spending and cut taxes, Doesn't need to be dramatic, say cut spending 3% and cut taxes 3%. This will send a signal to the investors w/ creditors who keep us afloat to continue doing so, and will also encourage those who have the money to spend and invest in the UK, be-it the generally well off older generation and external investors who want to see stability.

This will dramatically improve UK finances and debt position by end of this Parliament. If Labour have any chance of being retained they just need to drop any form of ideological mantra, and just do the basics before we reach the point of no return.

It's not rocket science, whoever wants to run the country we need to get back to basics and respect how we manage money, and what we spend it on. Too much cash is just leaking out of all major government departments, with no real benefits gained.

£2.8 trillion of debt and interest of £110 billion per year, you don't need to be an economist / accountant to understand the implications when our creditors refuse to lend us any more money. As ex BoE Governor Carney pointed out, we are dependant of the kindness of strangers.

As for the general competence of Politicians, I'm afraid those days are gone. Most politicians see it as a career which will fulfil their own self image of importance. If you ask me, it all started with Boris et al.

Well, we'll get a clearer view within the next two weeks. Results next week, and BoE decision the following week. Hopefully Wimps will present first half results in line and perhaps more importantly put a positive spin on outlook, supported by the BoE cutting rates and also telegraphing more cuts later in the year. This should be enough to reverse the current poor sentiment clouding builders recovery.

Of course, notwithstanding any geopolitical dramas, as the next Taco tariff deadline approaches :-)

Re CMA. Well, Wimps have engaged one of the top City law firms to manage their interests here, so I expect this will have reached a satisfactory conclusion and we can move on without any further delay. Mind you, I would expect Slaughter and May's fee's to be in excess of the CMA settlement :-)

https://www.slaughterandmay.com/recent-work/taylor-wimpey-plc-on-the-uk-competition-and-markets-authority-s-investigation-into-housebuilding/

Does seem that BoE Governors remarks about recommending higher LTI to lenders from today, caused the brief spike in Wimps share price at around 11:21am, with a couple of minutes of high volumes. I guess that was algorithmic bots responding to that news.

Yeah, hopefully this CMA investigation can be put to bed now. Does seem to me that the CMA also wanted to close this down, so a compromise has been reached that saves face for the CMA, and the builders have offered something that they will likely do anyway during normal course of business to satisfy Section 106 rules, and the £15m will be tax deductible so not too great an impact on year end results.

Net result is likely ~ £10m less for divi distribution.

No doubt Raynor and co will gloat about another example of this Government sorting out the mess inherited from the Tories.

£ collapsed as well during the afternoon, although seems to be steadying and recovering somewhat. Hopefully this is not a "Liz Truss" moment. See how Starmer (and BoE) handles this

Notwithstanding the impact on BoE reducing in its balance sheet, this is well telegraphed as updates to this policy are communicated after a BoE advisors meeting. I reckon the real cause for the builders to collapse this afternoon was the Gilt spike. Long term yields increased by around 15 bits, when normal run rate might be 2 / 3 BIps per day. Although todays spike will now make the quantitive tightening more expensive compounding the situation.

Also, I reckon that the shorters decided to jump on any interest rate sensitive stocks (aka Builders) just to accelerate the fall. Will have to see how Starmer and Reeves respond. For all Reeves faults and apparent lack of business nouse , the market might worry that she could be replaced by a left wing radical. In which case "we're all doomed ..."

I suspect that the current Welfare Bill is sucking all the oxygen out of the Labour Party machine at the mo. Productivity and multi tasking is not the Governments ace card ...

Always interesting when the closing auction exposes significant volumes, either buy or sell. Friday's auction listed 25M+ demand at a price above the last trade of the normal day; ~0.5p so classed as a "buy". Also, a good few million when through after market on a bilateral arrangement at just over the price of the last trade of the normal day, ending up with a total of ~ 52M all told.

Given the wobbly start to the trading day (BKG update), Wimps showed considerable resilience. Maybe we have reached the baseline, and the SP will build from around this point. Although, it needs to break through the 122 - 124 range as the recent SP has found this difficult so far this year.

Of course IMHO, and not withstanding bouts of volatility driven by macro events in this difficult world that we are currently living.

Having read through the CMA notes on the current investigation, I get the feeling that UKGOV has nothing that it can hang its hat on to berate the builders for suspected anti trust behaviour, and are looking to quietly drop the case with minimum reprimands. Any other outcome and they will likely cause the builders to respond by flat lining house builds for the immediate future; removing the proven growth engine that housebuilding creates. Even this Labour Administration (Raynor) must surely understand that is counterproductive.

I suspect the CMA have inherited the investigation from the tail end of Goves's attempt to lay the blame of cladding failures at the feet of a few large builders, to head off hightened public opinion at that time re delayed retrofitting and remediation of buildings. Bash the builders they can get at; regardless of the fact that offshore based corporations who developed large swaths of flats which needed remediation, are now dissolved and effectively un traceable. Another example of the Tories losing their way and forgetting their traditional role of being pro business.

For those who have the inclination, this is the CMA log : https://www.gov.uk/cma-cases/investigation-into-suspected-anti-competitive-conduct-by-housebuilders#full-publication-update-history

Of course, I could have underestimated the incompetence of the current Labour Administration.

Moulding’s current stake is approximately 25% on a fully diluted basis (including convertible loan rights). If the loan converts, his total holding could reach ~43% (220.8 million shares + 209.1 million converted shares = ~429.9 million shares, against THG’s current market cap of ~335 million shares).

If converted, is well in excess of triggering the 30% rule that requires a mandatory bid. The bid must be at the highest price in previous 12 months. Subject to resolution at AGM, the loan can be converted from October this year; soon !

There is clearly a plan, with interested parties all aligned. IMHO, they will not have the general punters interests at heart, and this is a clear case of corporate restructuring in a pre controlled manner arranged to deter any external bids. Not that anyone would make a bid.

Dropping out of the FTSE 100 is just a sideshow in the wider scheme of things, although it is not positive for those (naive) punters who believe that the SP and future depend on actual company performance.

Be careful out there.

True re 6.2p, however that was after exceptionals. Pre exceptional was 8.4p. So underlying earnings wasn’t too far off.

Agreed. UK GOV needs to move on and stop over regulating business, otherwise they will never get any growth and therefore be unable to provide public services to meet demand.

IMHO, they should “ let it rip …” for a while