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Looks like a renewed interest from Hedge Funds upping their short positions slightly. Of course not always negative, but usually unsettling for the share price. Might be a straight forward bet that UK Gov will not propose anything positive for housing in the Budget (SDLT relief, Help to Buy), and may introduce something negative for the industry (CGT). Just have to wait and see.

Hmmm, I would expect that Wednesday's Analyst and Investor day will be significant, They will provide an update and more detail on current trading and future site openings. I'm just hoping that they will present from a glass half full and positive perspective, which should help the following weeks ex-div day recover promptly.

Perhaps Rachel "from accounts" , will choose to cut spending instead of raising taxes, and point out to her Labour colleagues that we need learn to live within our means ... or have I had one pint too many ... :-)

As expected, closing auction reflects passive trackers rebalancing in readiness for Monday's trading session and their respective fund valuations. Over 100M went through.

IMHO, you need to be careful when taking notice of data provided by free BB's. Often the buy / sell data points are incorrect, and it's probably best to use the LSE trades data (albeit 15 mins behind), if you want to get accurate buy / sell data points. Or you can get a live feed from CBOE Europe's Equity Platforms, which shows live trades on their markets. TW is traded on a couple of those platforms : https://www.cboe.com/europe/equities/market_statistics/book_viewer/

For example, just look above at the Directors Share holdings, and you will see wildly inaccurate holdings for the CEO and CFO.

Well, just prior to ex-div day Wimps are hosting a Capital Markets Day. Hopefully it will be positive, and if the analysts take a “half glass full” perspective going forward. If this is the case then I would expect that the ex- div SP to recover promptly, recovering in a couple of days or so.

Let’s see.

Some chatter that Milliband refused to move departments in recent reshuffle. Implies that he’s calling the shots, and Starmer still unable to show some backbone. Hard to see where any growth will come from under his leadership.

Labour should accept that the world has moved on, and they need to loosen up current regulatory frameworks , especially NET ZERO, and accept that small tax increases across a wider base is less damaging than tax increases on those who have worked and saved and businesses in general. Oh, and of course someone needs to enlighten Reeves that spending cuts are also part of the solution.

Re FTSE 100 / 250 trackers. Most passive trackers will trade in / out as close as possible to the actual day of transition. Unless they do this, they are not accurately tracking the indices. Also, trading loosely around the date will create arbitrage opportunities for algorithmic bots to exploit. Watch out for end of day auctions on Sept 22nd, probably see the trades spiking then.

However, as for other non passive trackers (institutional funds / pension funds etc), they are likely to trade accordingly prior and after Sept 22nd, as they are not necessarily "tracking" the indices, but following their internal mandates.

There is no guarantee that once the SP goes ex-div, it will recover promptly. In markets like this, and in particular with Wimps offering such a large dividend, as there are many who think that the dividend is "free" money. However, at least there is an opportunity for Wimps to address the market just prior to ex-div date, and hopefully they will have some positives to say on the Capital Markets day. This may help mitigate further weakness.

As others have pointed out, the elephant in the room is the Bond Market. This may just be a warning shot across the bows, encouraging heavily indebted nations to cut spending and get their economies back on track for sustainable future. Not sure Reeves et al, are listening though.

However, IMHO, if one can see through the inevitable volatility there is a fair chance that SP recovery will set in in the not too distant future, notwithstanding geopolitical manoeuvring beyond our control. Of course, one can always fall back on a low risk option and head for cash whilst waiting it out; 4% (ish) with little downside risk.

Further analysis confirms that most (free) feeds on non paid for platforms use the official end of day closing price to set the Mcap. However, if you use paid for platforms you can track real time changes.

Platforms that show fluctuating (real-time) market capitalization during the day include:

• ProRealTime: Offers live market data with high quality charts and real-time analytics directly from exchanges, allowing users to see intraday price movements and derived metrics like market cap in real time.

• Koyfin: Provides real-time market data and financial analysis tools for global equities, ETFs, and more, enabling users to track live price and market cap changes intraday with customizable dashboards.

• TradingView: A popular platform showing live market charts and data, including real-time pricing which updates market cap continuously throughout the trading day.

• LSEG Workspace (London Stock Exchange Group): Supplies real-time market data feeds and APIs for live market prices and analytics, including intraday market cap updates for UK securities.

• FactSet Real-Time Data Suite: Gives access to streaming market data across asset classes with real-time updates on prices and market capitalization.

• Ticker and MarketWatch: Provide real-time or near real-time market data, with MarketWatch offering last sale data and intraday updates to prices and related metrics.

However, it's not live. Just watching for a period, and the Mcap does not change, even though the other elements of the dataset do. Probably Mcap is set at 0700 am for the day on this feed.

This is supposedly the "real time" FTSE 100 constituents data set.

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/indices/ftse-100/constituents/table?page=4

Hmmm, my take. Three options:

Wimps acquire someone. Not good as would strain balance sheet, and Wimps have no need to launch a takeover as the main reason for builders is to acquire additional land at favourable price. similar to oil companies acquiring reserves. Of course there are always some efficiencies to be exploited, but not worth the disruption. Share price suffers for a period of time, maybe twelve months before benefits realised and the market reassesses valuation. If Wimps this this then might led to competing bid for Wimps.

Get taken private. Always potential to be acquired by PE, but that would exclude current shareholders from any future gains.

Merger. This might work if can be demonstrated that 1 + 1 makes 3 and the CMA approve, which is not guaranteed. Personally I have always thought that Wimps and Berkley would be a good fit. Both well managed, both with strong balance sheets, both committed to returning excess capital to shareholders so seemingly a good strategic and complementary fit re product and expertise without any overlap. Berkley are quality higher end apartments / brown field site developers focussed on major conurbations. Wimps are more focused on quality medium range single family homes well distributed across whole of UK. Both have excellent land banks. Putting these two together would be my choice :-)

Outside bet for PE. Avant Homes. They are PE backed by Elliott Advisors and are quit ambitious to grow their business in Midlands, North and Scotland. Run be ex PSN boss (remember the bonus scandal). They just might have a go to swallow Wimps at these prices, and wouldn't need to worry about market reaction as they have the fire power to sit on the acquisition for a few years before looking to exit.

Any thoughts.

@Giantsquid. I'm getting lazy ... I asked Perplexity to calculate what CGT on house sale profits would be required to replace current revenue raised by SDLT. This is what she said ...

" ... In 2024, the estimated total profit made on UK house sales was about £112.84 billion, and the current Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT) raised on property purchases in the UK is around £11.5 billion.

To find what percentage of the profit made on house sales would need to be taken as Capital Gains Tax (CGT) to replace the current SDLT revenue:

Percentage required = (SDLT Revenue / Total Profit) * 100 = (11.5 billion / 112.84 billion) * 100 = 10.2

So, approximately 10.2% of the profit made on house sales would need to be taken as CGT to replace the current SDLT revenue of £11.5 billion.

This compares to the existing SDLT rates on property purchases, which vary depending on property price and buyer status, but overall generate this £11.5 billion revenue as the transaction tax ..."

Whilst this is just illustrative, and is an average, I would imagine that 10.2% on CGT is not too punitive and would help get the house market moving from bottom up. However, I agree with your general sentiment that UK GOV needs to get a grip and not just look for ways to increase tax, but primarily focus on reducing spend, improving Public Sector productivity and clamping down on HMRC and Benefit fraud. That way we would not need to raise taxes, would help to accelerate growth and reduce interest rates as international investors would not demand high rates of return on UK GILTS if we start to live within our means. However, given the U- turns on reducing spend on benefits collapsed before they got started, I wouldn't hold my breath ...

I suspect the Treasury's review of SDLT, with respect to removing it, and to compensate applying tax to housing sales rather than purchase has helped sentiment today. Personally, I would support that idea, as it will boost buyers (especially first time) by removing a major hurdle. Paying tax on the way in when purchasing seems counter intuitive as it presents a financial hurdle to those trying to get into their own home.

Tax on housing sales makes more sense as properties have had a lifetime to appreciate in value, so tax at the end on a profit is less restrictive to growth. Of course depends on how they might implement, but as we already have CGT established it would be easy enough to apply that to gains, possibly once a "profit" threshold has be surpassed. This approach also dovetails with the recent change to include Pensions within the IHT envelope.

Although, I would expect those (especially down south) who are sat on very large gains will complain as they often see their homes as profit centres and not places to bring up a family. See what the reaction is !

Well, looks like we have now got all the short to medium term "noise" out of the way until the Autumn Budget; CMA settlement, additional fire regs write downs, latest Halifax update, BoE interest rate cut (just awaiting commentary from Bailey) and the £20m charge re external contractor who failed to complete remedial work.

Perhaps the heightened speculation in builders recently will now trade itself out over next few weeks, and create space for a more positive viewpoint to emerge. After all a base rate of 4% is not too bad, and Wimps have indicated that they are pushing ahead with opening more sites, so that should allow some positive momentum from an earnings and margin perspective to help sentiment. Moving from glass half empty, to glass half full.

Always an outside chance the UK GOV will juice up the building sector a little, with some meaningful help for first time buyers. Pretty much as I can recall, there has always been some help for homeowners over the years, and if UK GOV wants to encourage positivity , general well-being and aspiration for the younger members of our society they need to help them to get into their own homes.

Personally, I would welcome a shift from stamp duty on purchase and move to a charge on sale. After all that is what CGT is there for. Tidy things up re tax regs and remove additional obstacles for purchasers.

Much will depend on what the BoE does tomorrow, most commentators are expecting a 0.25% cut and possibly a further 0.25% at the end of the year. That should help to steady the builders.

If BoE doesn’t cut, then likely a bad day 🙄

@Poker. I said it was NET Cash of £350m at year end. I said currently around £350 at H1 close, off the top of my head but it's actually £326m NET. Is your figure of £436m the guidance for Operating Profit, which is actually guided at £424m. £350m NET after divi and any land purchases due this year, which may be flexible at this stage depending deals done. Although I would not expect Wimps to do much in the land market at the mo.

@Crossley. We are currently around £350m, and guidance was given today for year end net cash of ~ £350m. So, expected dividends of around £165m and expected land purchase due will be covered by cash flow.

@Crossley. Your calc of 2025 year end cash of £513m is high. Expected year end cash is £350m.