Member Info for WetWater

Longknife: I don't have the courage to go back and see how long I have actually been in Falcon - guessing abut 10 years so to say I'm somewhat frustrated with my original 3-4 year investment is a bit of an understatement. With that said I understand and except that Falcon is a very small undercapitalized company swimming in a big pond. It has managed to stay afloat and has survived the moratorium, political uncertainty, Judge Pepper, new sets of fracking regulations and a utility company trying to be an E&P company.

The main difference in us (other than you stated 'six' figures of stock and being a brilliant small cap trader' compared to my '1000' shares and being somewhat of a dimwit :^) ) is that, IMO, I better understand the industry, understand the huge risk in this penny stock investment and appreciate the treacherous waters or CEO has guided us through these last 10 years. If we even make a buck after all these years that's about 5X - 6X my investment so I'll be happy. Personally I'm still targeting $2.00 with the longer term horizon.

I totally agree with Newtofo - Tammy runs a much greater risk of dilution than Falcon. If they drill their 300 - 500 wells - even with other E & P companies are involved - they are going to experience serious dilution issues - Sheffield is going to be fine but can Tamboran build up production fast enough to offset all the huge capital requirements? Falcon can sit back in the cat-birds seat picking and choosing where it elects to participate and when to dilute based on stock price. Even on acreage they don't participate in they will benefit from increased land values across 4.6 million acres which is the name of the game. I've been pushing POQ for several years to continue to stay in the Beetaloo and if possible checkerboard out the acreage. That didn't exactly happen but the sole risk participation he negotiated puts us in the same basic spot - it secures our future and lowers our risk.

I'm happy and content with Falcon. IMO, you and I both will look up in 3- 4-5 years and be pretty delighted with our investment in this small penny stock company.

Good Luck! Wishing I had had your insight and bought more than 1000 shares.

BC - For those that don't understand Falcon's position there are lots of disappointments in this investment. I tried to simplify this story in terms you might understand - looks like I failed.

Still wishing you the best - Sweet Dreams.

BTnatgas: Here's a new story plot for you: We have switched bus drivers - Tamboran is now driving the drilling schedules. Falcon has moved up a few seats in the bus towards the exits. After the next two free paid up rides are used, Falcon will be able to select how much they want to pay for future rides and if they want they can get on and off the bus along the way. If anyone expects Falcon to get in front of the Tamboran tour guide on these next two upcoming well reports/results that's not likely to happen as Tamboran is still the driver and will be the first to release any news to their stockholders as they see fit - possibly Falcon and Tamboran might give joint releases. Later down the line when Falcon begins paying for their own ticket, Falcon news will be more forthcoming. In the meantime you might just want to give it a big yawn and nod back off.

That's about the best new night-time story I can tell those that don't understand the pecking order of being carried.

Hardrock: The cost of rig mobilization gets back to my concern - Why would Tamboran change from drilling two wells from the existing Amungee pad with a well that has a normalized rate of 5 mcf/d to moving to separate locations for each of the next two wells. If the idea/goal is to prove commerciality/economy of drilling multiple wells from one pad, why abandon Origin's original drilling program? I'm sure Tamboran has their reasons but to my knowledge they haven't made that public.

Also quick question - can you efficiently drill a vertical shaft for a horizontal well with 4 1/2 inch casing or do you need something like 7" for the vertical bore before the well is whipped out? I would assume you would have to run a larger casing to run something like 4 1/2 " inside from the surface for the horizontal if that was drilled at a later time? Never understood the engineering behind all this. More simply stated, what's involved in turning a vertical test well into a horizontal well or is that even practical?

Thanks

Longknife: As I said the industry may not be your cup of tea. Lots of unknowns and the goal of selling out quickly to capture a little profit is not my goal. Nothing wrong with you selling out earlier if you feel uncomfortable with the risk involved.

The goal of Falcon currently is to stick around the Beetaloo long enough to prove up acreage - not build production. I don't see that changing under the current leadership of the company. Just assess your risk tolerance and act accordingly. Good Luck in whatever you decide.

Smallfish: I agree that Falcon needs to get its house in order to meet future drilling commitments if Falcon elects to participate in those future projects past 2024. IMO, right now Falcon is is good shape for the next couple of years - after that they will need funds for whatever proration units they elect to participate in. The good news is that they can not be forced into any drilling past the two $30 million dollar carry wells which should cost them about $7 million each above the carry.

Smallfish: Because initially when POQ was telling us two wells were to be drilled those wells he was referring to were to be drilled on the same pad as the Amungee NW 1H well which has already met the water bore monitoring standards.

I am somewhat puzzled as to why Tamboran changed those plans. When I first read about their 2H and 3H wells being drill in a different locations I assumed they were talking about a 3rd and 4th well being drilled AFTER the two planned Amungee wells on the NW-1H pad. Tamboran is required to drill/carry Falcon on the agreed upon $80 million carry which was to be this October's drilling program. They have also agreed to carry $30 million dollars on two additional wells to be drilled in 2023 and 2024 - those wells worked out to be a $6.75 million carry for each well. I'll be the first to admit I am somewhat confused as to when these 4 required wells will have to be drilled.

Oleo: Its impossible to argue with an illogical person.

If you think you are in poor hands with POQ do you really think all this continual *****ing and moaning over the so called spilled milk is going to change anything? You criticize Philip for not being proactive - then why don't you do something proactive yourself? That seemed to work for Darnitagain.

When you mention POQ should be more proactive in the Karoo - do you realize it was Philip that headed up a committee of oil investors/companies to try to get compromises out of SA so that the Karoo could be developed? I know things like that don't fit your narrative but sometimes facts shouldn't be ignored. Companies that didn't hold national treaties with SA had high hopes that a new election would improve the SA situation - in fact it only made things worse - so what is POQ to do? Seriously question Oleo, with a very unfriendly/noncompromising government, what do you think Philip should do today regarding SA??

As to Philip not pulling a rabbit out of his hat in 30 days, not only raising millions but also getting a qualified contractor/oil company signed up/approved by the feds - if that was a big disappointment for you then I think your expectations might be set a little high.

I don't know your history with Falcon and not trying to insult you, but at times I get the feeling you are not really tuned into this little company - if I am wrong I apologize. Then again maybe you feel your contribution is to complain.

Longknife: "Here in the states we have a saying, "make hay while the sun shines"! That's why I still don't like the idea of pushing the monetization of FOG out 3,4,5 years. You never know what's going to happen in the future. Like the political climate".
Ok - then please say what you mean. You mentioned nothing about proving commerciality in your first post - you want out sooner rather than later as the future is uncertain - DUH! Commerciality isn't even mentioned until your second restated post only to be followed up by stating you frankly don't believe commerciality will ever happen and therefore Falcon is going to be worth $10million dollars - yada, yada, yada. So yes, I did comprehend your first "the sky is falling" post verses your second revised statement. You seem to take umbrage over me saying you might want to take your "bird in the hand" and sell it before it becomes worthless - that's basically what your are saying in your second "$10 million dollar" post - if you really believe in what you are saying then follow your own advise and exit before we are worth US$.01/share.

Make up your mind what you want to be upset about - Maybe its just me because I call out your BS - Maybe its Philip because he is not running this show to your standards - Maybe its Tamboran for revising Origin's drilling plans - Maybe, just maybe, your not cutout for the high risk and unknowns of this industry.

If Tamboran/Falcon are going to prove commerciality in the Beetaloo its going to take MORE than one well to accomplish that. IMO, that is one of the objectives of the pilot program - to prove the economical drilling/fracking/completing of multiple wells off of one pad. I don't believe it is, or will ever be, Falcon's goal to become a long-term producer. IMO, its Falcon's plan to prove commerciality in the Beetaloo and then sell at the proper time most beneficial for the shareholders - be that 3,4 or 5 years. Just because all this doesn't meet your time-table doesn't mean Philip/board are wrong in trying to obtain the best price for your Beetaloo interest. You are free to sell your stock at any point that meets your price objective - its not mandated you stick around until the gavel drops.

No suitor is going to buy Falcon based on what tomorrow's or next year's commodity prices predict. The development of the Beetaloo is a decades long development. If you are in Falcon for what commodity prices offer today then you are in the wrong game - any buyer is going to be looking at much longer price trends..

I'm also confident that the Aussie government realizes the importance of the Beetaloo being a National strategic asset and the potential it holds for job creation - green energy is not doing away with fossil fuels in our lifetime - look at Europe and see what kind of ditch that type of thinking got them.

I'm in this long-term for the high rewards it offers - if that's not your game so be it. Good Luck however you proceed.

BCnatgas: Go back and re-read Origin's releases. They had initially planned to drill two wells off the same pad as the Amungee NW 1H - those wells were to demonstrate the speed and cost savings that could realized with multiple wells off the same pad - a very important component of proving commerciality. That's likely why the bore holes on the new location 10km away had not been drilled. That was the plan until it wasn't when Tamboran took over. It was always Origin's plan to drill those two wells this year and then in 2023/2024 begin the pilot program with an additional two planned wells. It looks like all this planning was trashed in the Origin fire sale deal. To try to blame POQ for this change once again goes to show you among many people don't understand Falcon's position in calling the shots in the Beetaloo.
Yeah, reality sucks but at least try to be honest in whom to point your finger at. If you think Falcon/POQ has any control over this change in plans then you my friend are placing blame in the wrong places.

Longknife: so you would rather Falcon put itself up for sale prior to proving commerciality? Gosh - I guess we should have sold out a year or two ago since it’s all down hill from here! I seriously question your judgement and glad your not running this show. Maybe you should sale and capture the current stock price before it plunges following your bird in the hand thinking.

Betyar: Yes it looks like the rumor was right but as everyone Falcon, I had no idea the extent of that rumor. I also know it caught many other people off guard - Origin/Tamboran played this close to their chest. I knew Origin/Tamboran were dealing but certainly not to that extent and nor any terms.

I am extremely happy with the outcome. Running short on time so gotta run but know that this company is going to be on a much higher protectory going forward. The next 2-3 years are going to be great for Falcon and its shareholders. We are in good hands with Tamboran and the sole risk option negotiated.

Newtofo/B2B: I learned that UncleBuk had nothing to offer this board. Nowadays he appears as a little green box on my computer. B2B - Let Newtofo and myself know if we miss anything - somehow I highly doubt it!! Maybe if more people would ignore him he will just fade away. The filter button for invented for him.

Beetaloo: Agree LOL! I should have my hand slapped! I need step back at times - just hate for what I perceive as mis-information to go unaddressed. I'll try harder :^)

Smallfish: I agree with your reserve classification comments. I was not making reference to 2C reserves - I think I mentioned "contingent" and gave reference to the Amungee and its 1998 sq km surrounding acreage that was assigned contingent resources of 6.64 TCF.. We are talking apples to oranges. I took you comments to mean Falcon wouldn't benefit from any production unit unless they participated in the drilling of those production units. I'm saying that any production proved up in a 10 sq mile area can certainly be recognized across the boundary of that particular unit. If Falcon can benefit from large blocks of land carried at a higher price per acre based on even contingent resources that will translate to a higher stock price on land valuation alone.

I am not a PE and can't comment on what may or may not be classified as 2P or 3P reserves based on distance, pipeline access, etc. With that said, and as I believe you also mentioned, to a degree the 2c & 3C reserve classification will extend beyond a production unit boundaries. Between those bleed over reserves, contingent resources, etc. Falcon could benefit from completely standing on the sideline the next 3-4 years. POQ has already made it clear Falcon will be participating in drilling but not to the proposed 22,5% participation of 300 - 500 wells that Tamboran has estimated will be drilled on the Beetaloo in the next 3-5 years.

Some on this board may not understand the extent of the Velkerri formation across the Beetaloo - Yes there will be 'sweet spots' and some lower quality sections but overall the table-top Velkerri formation that lies across our acreage will likely produce similar returns. There is a hell of a lot of acreage to be drilled that will take decades to fully develop. I believe Falcon is sitting in the cat bird's seat to drill what they can afford to drill as raises/production permits. In three - four years there will have a suitor come knocking to acquire Falcon's interest at what is hopefully a price that will make all of us smile.

Oh by the way, that Velkerri formation also contains A & C shales that will be explored in time. The B & C shales were practically a toss-up in the Amungee area as to which to develop first. Falcon's geologist said the C shale has a few more rock structures which gave the B shale the advantage but the C shale holds vast gas in place available for future production. All is good IMO.

Oleo - "Did Philip really think he could have put together a deal in 30 days? "
You would have to ask Philip that question. I believe he quite possibly could have raised the money but then, IMO, that was only half the battle - Falcon had to end up with a partner that was an E&P company and met the approval of the Aussie government.

I always felt this would have literally been pulling a rabbit out of his hat if he accomplished everything in 30 day but what if he had talked to say Santos and they were all in - then BINGO the money is raised and being an Aussie company they would have likely met the approval requirements. The 30 days was to exercise Falcon's ROFR - after that he would have had an undisclosed amount of time to finalize a deal. So was I planning on all that happening - certainly not but there was a slim possibility.

Oleo: There are a lot of assumptions in your answer regarding your proposed shareholder vote. We don't fully understand what POQ was or was not made privy to prior to this Tamboran deal - your assumption is that he was made aware of these details months before. From what I understand, POQ knew that Origin was negotiating with various parties (Tamboran included) regarding a farm-down - not a fire sale. He was not made aware of any discussions/details of those fire sale negotiations. I can tell you that Philip personally considered this a slap in the face that Falcon was not included in these talks. If Philiip didn't know the extent of the farm-down talks, which ended up in being not a farm-down but complete exit by Origin, then how would he have put together a timely vote by the Falcon shareholders - just what would he have told his shareholders they would be voting on?

Once again - that's why these public companies have board of directors.

Oleo: I had to laugh at your proposal that the Falcon shareholder's should have had a chance to vote as to which option to pursue. POQ had 30 days max to organize/hold that vote (an impossibility in itself) and then pursue the outcome of that vote. That doesn't include the fact that running an oil company business totally by democratic votes is not a way to run a railroad - that's why companies have boards. Join the real world guy.

Smallfish: I don't believe you understand the consistency/extent of these table-top shale formations. These shale formation production potentials don't vary significantly from one location (pad) to adjacent areas. If these next two Amungee wells prove to be 'commercial' it is said they can help prove up the acreage between those two wells and the Tamboran wells some 30-40(?) km to the west - that is IF the Tamboran wells are commercial wells .

The seismic along with Falcon's test wells on the Beetaloo indicate that the Velkerri formation has an aerial extent covering 95% of our 4.6 million acres concession. Regarding this aerial extent concept - look at the original Amungee discovery well and the 6.4 TCF of 'contingent' reserves assigned to that massive block surrounding that one well and the higher land values being assigned to that acreage. Shale formations are blind to the arbitrary 6400 acre production units formed - many of those wells will be designed to have horizontal bores extending to within 100 yards to the boundary edge of their unit. Cross that boundary and guess what - the same shale potential still exist.

Are you trying to gaslight us that IF these next two Amungee wells are commercially successful (which most fully expect) that only the 6400 acres included in their arbitrary 10 sq mile block will be counted into reserves? Falcon owns 22.5% of the acreage surrounding these tiny 10 sq mile blocks - the acreage extending beyond the production unit WILL carry higher values and benefit both Tamboran and Falcon - even though Falcon might not have participated in the drilling - Flashing Alert smallfish - Not every acre in the Beetaloo will have to neatly fit into a production unit prior to those acres carrying a higher land values for potential reserves/commerciality.

As to gas outside your the production area - Falcon will not be stepping out on its own and drilling wells outside the 'exclusion' area (not clear what that means) - Falcon can only participate up to 22.5% so obviously Tamboran will be drilling those units and they have a contract to sell their gas to Origin - I suspect Origin will also buy Falcon's undivided 22.5% of that gas production.

As to your post I disagree - there are in fact fools.

Oleo: "Anyway you can expect this will become a boring forum and we will see a depressed share price as long as we will not get any real good well test production data. But POQ prepared us already today that we will have to wait till 2023/24".

How can this board become boring when we have you to enlighten/entertain us. Maybe you should go hide in your hole until 2024 - sounds like you won't miss anything around here and I suspect not many will miss you. :^)