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Oleo: I totally agree that 29 days is a short timeframe but I also think for what's at stake $45 million USD might not be a big hurdle for an aggressive JR oil company or independent. Heck, that kind of money is pocket change for some of the independents here in the PB. For anyone wanting exposure to the Beetaloo partnering with Falcon could be a sweet deal. For all we know it could just be a financial investment for a non-oil person/company/institution. Lots of potential for someone willing to roll the dice.
dprussky: Either the Origin contract is in effect or it is not. For Tamboran to be agreeable to carry Falcon's $80 million carry for the next two wells tends to make me believe the contract is in place. Sorry but I don't understand why Falcon not taking action on Origin wanting to acquire a partner would/should effect the terms of a contract already in place. As I said - it appears Origin and Tamboran also think the original Origin contract is legal and something that has to be dealt with.
Frackme: I believe your are right that a future deal can likely include Tamboran and BS - but its going to be on Falcon's terms. I'll sing Philip's praises but he is not an Oil and Gas operator. We need a Tamboran or Santos, etc. to run the rigs and geology. That's not taking away from Philip but I think its being realistic. At this point Falcon just needs to at least raise the $60 million Aussie dollars - that's about $40 - $45 million USD? Once they do that they can have the luxury of time to build a plan from there.
$40 - $45 million USD for 4.6 million acres of prime World Class Beetaloo acreage - I'm betting someone takes part of that deal!
Oleo: I know a guy that loosely controls about 15 -20% of the outstanding Falcon stock. I also know the Falcon's Board is in Philips corner. If Philip is fighting to acquire 100% of the 4.6 million acre concession for Falcon's benefit, then I don't see BS getting enough shareholder support to do what you are thinking.
Oleo: I have heard through the grapevine that Philip said if he didn't go all out and attempt to get this deal done then the shareholders and board should "run his arse off". He considers this a slap in the face - this is much more than about his contract. Think about it, Origin and Tamboran/BS completely went around his back on this - no respect given to Falcon whatsoever. What Origin did was flat out wrong and POQ intends to throw a big ROFR monkey wrench into that deal. Origin and Tamboran may have done Falcon a sweet deal by negotiating such a low price for 77.5% of the Beetaloo. Lets see what POQ can get done over the next 29 days!
Don't be snookered into thinking that Philip is a mild guy that just sits behind his desk and plays golf three days a week. Being fully carried for years that was his job but he still is the same guy that pulled off the $200 million Origin deal - he's a strategic thinker/poker player when that is called for. Just saying - don't underestimate this guy. IMO Tamboran and BS are going to meeting the real POQ.
Oleo: I strongly suspect POQ is not taking BS's calls right now. POQ is going to deal with BS from a position of strength - you don't just give up the ROFR for a pancake and waffle :^)
ITS A FACT Guys - Falcon does have preemptive rights given in the Origin contract. Tamboran has done a good job of talking around this point with the journalist. The ROFR is not even mentioned in the last 12 hours of news releases concerning Tamboran's move - I can tell you it IS in the contract and IS going to have to be addressed in this deal. I suspect Sheffield/Tamboran thought they were going to just steam roll over Falcon - its not going to happen that easily. Falcon is going to make an all out effort to raise the money to match the deal - if they can make that raise, then and only then, do they deal with BS and Tamboran from a position of strength. I know Philip is ****ed and knowing Philip he is laying the groundwork to jerk the rug out from underneath this one sided deal. The next 30 days are going to be interesting.
In my opinion, if raising the $150 million is a challenge (which I don't think it will be) then why the hell not go back and raise $60 million to acquire Origin's acreage - Falcon is not on the hook to drill the next two wells if push comes to shove - they are only committed to themselves. Acquire Origin's 77.5% position and then go back to Tamboran and make a deal to farm down some acreage on Falcon's Terms and get the wells paid for in return. Or maybe go to Santos or whomever and pull another Origin type deal to work a carry going forward. The most important thing to be done at this point is to at least acquire Origin's 77.5% interest.
The important thing is to acquire the 77.5% and then we worry about getting the wells drilled in due time.
IMO, Falcon holds a big stick at these negotiations - Tamboran/BS and the journalist may want to turn a blind eye to the ROFR but its in the contract and and its going to be hard for Tamboran to get around that.
Northern Magic - The carry will be met/over by this coming January. After the next two well are drilled/fracked we likely are on our own. If I understood correctly, the Origin/Tamboran agreement says that Tamboran is to reimburse Origin for any Beetaloo related expenditures after May 14th(?). If that is true then Tamboran is in effect carrying Falcon's portion of the 2022 drilling program. Next question - Is Tamboran in effect the drilling contractor for these next two wells?? If the Tamboran/Origin deal is not set in stone for another 30 days does that put off these next two wells another month? I need to upgrade my crystal ball - too many unknowns in this equation.
As Oleo mentioned, what if Tamboran and Falcon merged?? It insures the future of Falcon shareholders going forward and avoids the potential issue of trying to keep up with Tamboran if they get aggressive in the Beetaloo development. I would be very comfortable with that kind of deal. With Sheffield holding larger positions in both companies he obviously might have an interest in that. A Tamboran merger solves the pedigree issue with it being an Australian company. I'm sure Philip could be appeased to not fight a merger with the right option package :^) If Tamboran could be persuaded to list themselves on a US exchange that would give them greater exposure to capital markets to make it a stock merger deal feasible.
Just thinking out loud - this is all above my paygrade. IMO, Falcon's number one priority is to stay in the game one way or the other. Let's see what happens.
Longknife - And you don't think Origin has gotten anything accomplished this year? Whether you like the deal or not, it looks like Origin has been extremely busy. Hopefully this deal doesn't overly delay the next two wells.
UncleBuck: Why would POODS' grandchildren be upset - it looks like the development schedule of the Beetaloo just took a huge jump forward. Personally, my grandchildren, if they understood what the hell was going on, would be pleased with an aggressive operator taking over the helm. Between Dr Close along with Sheffield and company we are in good hands.
Actually, I'm pleased with the proposed change of drilling contractors - now if Falcon can keep up with Sheffield & company's drilling schedule. Falcon has preemptive rights to acquire this Origin acreage but knowing our non-aggressive CEO and board I doubt they will exercise those rights. People want to look at the $60 million as a fire sale, which IMO it is, but what they are not seeing is the 5.5% royalty interest Origin is retaining on any future development projects in the Beetaloo - that holds huge potential for Origin going forward and makes it easy for them to meet their pledged emission goals while cashing in on ever increasing royalty income I was told last week that Origin was running scared of all the ESG crap - also, they are basically a utility company and needed to hold on to their capital to meet their current cash flow needs in this unstable utility market. There is a logical reason for them to do this deal even though on the surface it is not so apparent.
What happens tomorrow to Falcons' share price? - I don't see this Tamboran deal having any long-term effects for Falcon though Longknife and other nervous nellies might sell into a declining share price. Tamboran/Origin will begin drilling the next two planned wells and that is what holds the potential to drive Falcon's share price.
All is good though I must admit, I wish Falcon's board was more aggressive and picked up some of the acreage in this deal. Oh well we are still in good shape and having 22.5% of this monstrous Beetaloo Basin offers worlds of potential.
GLA
Falcon has a press release coming out tomorrow - we will see what that holds other than it likely will just be a restatement of the Tamboran/Origin news.
Schlemiel: Its hard to logically argue with an illogical person - much easier to just hit the little green button and he goes away.
PS - Thanks for all you add to this board.
Sebol - I fully agree that it is way to early to try to draw any conclusions about the Origin/Tamboran deal. As you posted, there are just way too many unknowns at this point. My calculus class didn't teach me how to draw too many conclusions on this deal just knowing that there is a $150 million dollar offer on the table. We will know more in time.
BCNatgas: I'm sure he was privy to the drilling schedule - he is just not in control of it. Timing can change for numerous reasons. Here we are only halfway through September - we have drilling pads waiting - I'm not the least bit concerned with the 22 drilling schedule. Even if the rig doesn't show up till October we are still good with the access of the all weather roads.
Right now there are much bigger things to ponder with Origin's announcement of the $150 Tamboran offer. I am somewhat puzzled by how Falcon plays into this - not enough known pieces of the puzzle to see the big picture. The facts are that Sheffield owns substantive shares of both Tamboran and Falcon along with the ORI in the Beetaloo. Sheffield also appears to the one of the driving forces behind funding of the Tamboran deal. This all makes me think the big picture could somehow include Falcon's acreage - to what degree or how I don't know - that's just my thinking - no facts to back that up.
BINGO - This confirms the rumor I got shellacked for mentioning a couple of weeks ago because I wouldn't disclose my sources!
Sheffield is likely the driving force behind Tamboran's move. Interestingly though there are no specific details beyond the $150 million given in this statement. I suspect that Origin leaked this information to possibly get other interested players into a bidding war - I have been hearing there has been a lot of activity goin on at Origin. IMO, there is no way Tamboran can get even close to all of Origin's stake for this amount - big question - just what does $150 million buy them. It will be interesting to see how/when the details come out.
Next question - how does Falcon play out in this deal - does Sheffield offer then a similarly structured deal - which as of now we don't understand! If Sheffield could get the same type of structured deal on Falcon he could roll those interest into one entity before this play really starts to heat up.
Maybe this triggers INPEX, Santos and other interested players to enter into the fray for part of Origin's Beetaloo interest.
BCnatgas: Yes - we shall see. Seems the Falcon stockholders want Philip to address the drilling schedule and I fully understand that. What you and others seem not to understand is that Philip doesn't control the timing of when this rig is moved on site - once again we are at the mercy of the drilling operator Origin Energy. With the two well pads constructed I'm sure they will be utilized this drilling season. Thankfully, with their location right off all weather roads we are not as constrained to seasonal timelines as we have been in the past. Drilling will happen this year - when Origin gets their ducks in a row and gives the go ahead. In the meantime Philip is likely just as frustrated as are his stockholders.
Mojo: Thanks for the heads up on Newtofo - He was about to fool me into thinking the Beetaloo held a lot of potential - and here I thought the exploding commodity prices of gas in Asian markets showed strength in the gas market - who knew this is all just a mirage! Its also disturbing that living in the Permian Basin in the US I have had the wool pulled over my eyes as to the fossil fuel industry.
I look forward to more of your post as your first two post to this board have been so enlightening. Welcome aboard :^)
Poods: Crazy analogy but spot on - I had to laugh at that one. Some want POQ to get out in front of Origin and tell them how to run their drilling program - That's just not going to happen. Going forward, if things play out as I hope, that might change for the better - Falcon will not be fully carried and will have more input into the equation - not necessarily holding the big stick but at least have a seat at the table.. In the meantime Falcon is fully carried and right where it needs to be - much to the chagrin of some on this board.
Oleo: From my brief google search it looks like the Kavango Basin in not even in South Africa so politically speaking it has no relevance to this discussion. As to FOG - as I mentioned, they will be waiting for the political picture to clear up in SA before they do anything in the Karoo. I would be disappointed in Falcon if they went and spend what little cash reserves they have to pursue a project that may not happen for decades. However, POQ did mentioned recently that there was some potential good news coming out of SA - if so maybe the Karoo and a JV partner could be sooner rather than later - we shall see but I'm not holding my breath as I'm already turning blue from the Beetaloo :^)
Yes it is Dolerites - I am mixing up my mountains in Italy with the geologic structures in the Karoo - my bad! Interestingly, my son-in-law last week finished a 2 week bike ride from Germany to Italy that included pictures of the Dolomites in the back ground - these impressively rugged mountains must have stuck in mind LOL!