Member Info for WetWater

Newtofo: Like myself, you and many others on this board are anxious for news regarding the Amungee 2H well. Where I thought we might get some preliminary reports and an initial flow rate, I was told by someone 'in the know' that Tamboran does not intend to make any early release of initial flow rates - they will release the 30 day flow rate and nothing before. Expect that 30 day flow rate about the end of May. Let's see if Mr. Riddle can keep the news under wraps. Tamboran and others didn't like the way Empire put out news only to retract, soak and re-release. Tamboran wants to give the market a good solid, meaningful flow rate - no games played.

Looks like we are in for another 5-6 weeks of waiting - in the meantime, the stock price will do what i'\t's going to do.

Newtofo: Thanks for your comments regarding Santos' statements to its investors regarding the Barossa's 18% CO2 gas field. Comparing the Beetaloo's low 3% -4% CO2 levels to what appears to be the normalized 15% - 20% CO2 found in much of Australia appears to give Tamboran/Falcon and Empire a 5x-6x advantage when it comes to carbon capture cost.

Origin's Beetaloo position has always been one of being carbon neutral - that part of the equation has not changed. This new attention/enforcement given to the "scope 1,2,3" carbon capture cost now gives the Beetaloo an actual pricing advantage over competing natural gas fields.

If one looks at this through a pure competitive basis, the Green party just gave the Beetaloo Basin a big advantage - quite the opposite of killing the Beetaloo as they seem to want. As previously stated, Australia needs the jobs/gas/electricity - the Beetaloo is a national asset that is going to be developed. The scope 1,2,3 regulations have actually played right into our hands. What appeared at first glance to be a detrimental cost is actually an advantage for the Beetaloo going forward.

All is good!

Longknife: I'm with you on thinking we are not seeing the whole political picture. Australia needs the jobs, the gas for electricity, gas to meet the lower emission goals and the NT needs the ORRI funds they don't get from offshore drilling. A few months ago the Fed was giving the NT all kind of encouragement and funding to facilitate the infrastructure needed for the Beetaloo's development - now to completely do a 180 does not make any sense.

The Beetaloo is a national strategic asset for Australia. I 'm a little more optimistic the dprussy that the Beetaloo is not going to be sh*t canned and all the hundreds of millions of dollars in development cost goes down the drain! Too much at risk for Australia to pull the plug!

Jobs and economic security for the NT government and the existing gas shortage resulting in brown outs on Australia's southeast cost will temper the demands of the Greens. Not too long ago, the federal government was demanding that the NT put away their begging bowl and start producing their natural assets - the feds cut the annual welfare payments to the NT and threatened to cut them even more if the NT didn't do more to help themselves.
The Labour party will get kicked to the curb if they kill the golden goose - IMO the Australian government needs the Beetaloo - the government already recognizes the Beetaloo as a national strategic asset and as we have seen are willing to promote it development by funding infrastructure ext. The Greens desires vs. the government needs will get resolved in time. In the meantime Tamboran needs to keep its head down and do what it does best.

Newtofo: Yikes - 20.4% sounds rough but in reality, most of the Permian Basin leases carry a 25% ORRI. Some companies that have little competition are trying to move that back to 3/16 ORRI.

Newtofo: I'm surprised with that total field royalty agreement obligating Tamboran to pay royalties on production they don't legally own - IMO, that's a strange agreement for a JV partnership. Most on this board already knows, but just to restate, there is a 10% fee (royalty) paid to the NT(?) on any production. So total royalty fee burden for Tamboran will effectively be about 17% - that's a pretty tough figure hitting the bottom line.

This obligation effectively makes Falcon worth more to an outside company or Sheffield than to Tamboran. From what little I understand about the Sheffield agreements, his company 'Daily Waters' may also obligate Tamboran to the same royalty agreement? I know Sheffield's agreement has the same sole-risk clause as Falcon so these agreements may mirror each other - that's just a guess on my part.

NorthernM: From a recent report on Tamboran:

The first goal is to prove up 0.7 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of net 2P gas reserves
and sanction a 100 tera joule (TJ) per day (gross) Amungee pilot development
by the end of CY 2023.
By the end of CY 2025 TBN want to be producing 100 TJ/day from the pilot
development and are targeting ~5.0 Tcf of net 2P gas reserves sourced from
TBN’s interest in the binding gas supply agreement (GSA) with Origin Energy
(ORG) and a proposed 2.2 million tonne per annum (Mtpa) LNG tolling
agreement or development opportunity.
Longer term TBN want to be producing 1 billion cubic feet per day (Bcfd) (~390
peta joules (PJ) per annum) to backfill existing LNG plants or new greenfield
plants by 2028-2030.

5 Tcf of gas is a huge amount of 2-P reserves. I believe this is a gross figure so about 22.5% will be Falcon's portion. Tamboran's figures include the soon to be completed 3000 meter Maverick well so Falcon's part could be a little bit less but what's a few 1000 mmcf amongst friends!
Tamboran indicated even these 1000 meter test wells will be produced into the pilot program - I know that doesn't answer your question as to exactly 'when' but IMO, proving up 2-P is what is important at this point.

Newtofo: If this well comes in around my projection of 6-7mmcf/d, I feel relatively sure Mr Riddle will be singing from the roof tops. The initial flow rates won't be that figure but it could be in the range of 5 mmcf/d and that will result in Riddle doing what he does best! I would look for an initial rate to be announced in about 2 weeks.
I can hear him tuning up now!

805slo: "One would think PQQ would be aware of this and itching to get good new out ASAP. I don’t see any issues with letting shareholders know stimulation was successful."

I can't speak to Tamboran's lack of any news other than they stated flow rates on the Amungee 2H would be released early 2nd quarter 2023. Lets give them 2-3 weeks. Tamboran will release initial flow rates when available so let's give this well a chance to clean itself up before we hit the sky is falling lever.

As to Philip - It's not his news to release - once again Falcon is not the operator. I would expect a coordinated release from Falcon when the Tamboran news hits.

In the meantime - Inhale -- Exhale --Repeat.

kmj: Don't understand your comment " I think the delays on announcing that are bc perhaps they want to use an H & P rig, which I think is possible given H & P's move into the region though not sure, otherwise I guess will use Condor again".
H&P is the drilling company; Condor is the fracking company - Tamboran will be using Condor again unless they royally screw up the frack job which with all the watchful eyes is not going to happen.

I also wouldn't overly worry about the normalization rate assigned to the 1H well - the engineers assigned to this task measured the production flow of the 5 frack stages prior to the casing deformation and normalized that to over the total 12 frack stages / 1000 meters in the same shale formation - I suspect the engineers got this one right. Tamboran wouldn't have offset this well on the same pad if they didn't think the normalization rate was legit.

My question is if the IFR is potentially 6-7 mmcf/day - or even Tamboran's 5.5mmcf/d does Tamboran pin the next well on the same pad of move off to a test say 10km away in an area closer to a potential pilot program - benefits to each.

Newtofo: I know Falcon and Tamboran don't want to set expectations too high, but I'm still putting my money on 6-7 mmcf/d/1000m. Only makes sense with all the advance techniques being put in place. If the Amungee 1H had a normalized rate of 5.2 - 5.8, then with double the frack stages and 5 1/2-inch casing and from what I understand will be an overall American style frack with improved chemistry, I fully expect improved results from the 1H.

If 6-7mmcf/d/1000m comes to pass this stock will be at the next level both in value and share price. We will all be looking forward to the 3H well, 4H well and then on to the pilot program.

Longknife: Disappointing to you, my answer would be yes - it would tell us what not to do or how to avoid a repeat - not to throw up our hands and give up on the Velkerri B. If you recall the first Amungee well hole was nearly lost and was damaged due to faulting - it told them to pay better attention to seismic this go around. These guys learn things on every well they drill. Same will be true with fracking - I have heard the Velkerri B formation is excessively dry making water alone not ideal carrier of proppant - I'm sure there will be adjustments to frack chemistry to adjust.

I am in a wildcat well in the states that was drilled off-setting a non-productive well drilled in 1980s 4 miles to the south. The data and information on that well was considered invaluable to the current operator. The geologist/engineers better understood trends, knew what to anticipate and what to avoid. Due to that data a larger BOP was installed which kicked in 6 times - saving the well at least twice. Based on to this dry hole data, the well encountered expected formations and over-pressured zones were anticipated allowing mud weights to be adjusted accordingly. The well will be completed this spring - the engineers are anticipating up to a 60mmcf/d well. This well would have been lost with to up to 13,000# down-hole pressure kicks had they not had an idea of what to expect and adjust mud psg prior to entering formations - that plugged well 4 miles to the south gave the engineers some very valuable information.

So yes, you can learn a lot from wells such as the Kyalla. The Kyalla #117 well is still being studied to better understand what happened and make the likelihood of a future off-setting well more successful - so YES, even with the failure, lessons will be learned and the next Kyalla well will benefit.

The stock market does not assign value to the same things geologist and engineers assign value! While Tamboran/Falcon/BS are Intune to future potential of the Beetaloo while you are intently focused on the Falcon stock price - I understand.

Longknife: In your view the Kyalla well was a failure. In the industry's view that well provided much information regarding that area to the south. Origin apparently fracked into a water source which they have yet to figure out. I suspect Falcon won't be around when that area is tested again but when it is the data from that well is considered important. With the exciting promise of the Kyalla formation, that area will be revisited. In the eyes of geologist, all wells are valuable - some just tell you where not to drill or what formations contain issues!

Success will come with failures - that's the nature of the industry.

Longknife: Arggg! We have been at the mercy of Origin for years and yet have completed the Kyalla, Velkerri Flank well recently, have undergone the major ownership conversion from Origin to Tamboran, have apparently drilled/completed what looks like a very successful Amungee hole and are now waiting for frack trucks to show up. If I can't tell you to sell then please at least keep your complaining and whining to yourself - you amuse no one. I for one, am very pleased with where Falcon stands today - it's been a long road but looking like success is just around the corner. I would think you of all people could see the big picture but maybe not? This next year is shaping up to be more exciting for you.

Thank You for pointing out what you and I have realized for some time. People want information and POQ tries to give these people some color but at the end of the day he doesn't control the timeline. Another thing that some don't realize is that this operation/location is more than a hop/skip and jump from 'equipment bases - it's a journey for these trucks/equipment/material and personnel to get on site - if something goes wrong and needs repairing things are slow to be hot -shotted to the location. This will slowly improve as more wells are planned/drilled but you can expect significant delays at this stage. Even Tamboran/Sheffield have to learn to be patient.

Longknife: Don't get me wrong - I would certainly lighten the load if the stock were to appreciate to .40 - .50 cents and certainly $.75 $1 - I've had dead money in this stock for years. I thought you were thinking about trying to sell at these points with the intention of buying back lower - IMO we wont' see the big declines after upcoming news events we have seen in the past - but then what do I know :^)

Longknife: We have seen this happen a couple of times in the past where the stocks runs up on good news but then tends to settle back down. The big difference this time is if these next two wells are what I think they will be this stock might not settle back as much when Tamboran plans the third well in the 4th qtr 2023 and the fourth well shortly thereafter. Then we are looking at the pilot program so who knows how this stock reacts. The wild card is someone makes a legitimate offer and the stock jumps overnight.

People can play it differently but I have always looked at Falcon in the long term and will probably hold most of my stock. Nothing wrong with holding or trade some stock. If your holdings are in the range of mine then trading that size of blocks might be an issue getting in and out easily.

Looking forward to some nice news going forward - I am hopeful this stock rises to the next level in the next two years.

Assuming you have followed Falcon for some time, trying to predict stock prices based on events like this is a fools game. No official prediction but personally I am hoping for a nice jump to $.30US - $.35US.

IMO, 6.5-7mmcf/day would be outside of the current flow rate predictions by Falcon and Tamboran. That type of flow rate would (should) demand a greater stock price. Like I say I can't predict anything based on facts - hoping yes! I am not an engineer but just common sense say if a 12 stage frac using 4 1/2 inch casing flows 5.2 mmcf/d then a 24 stage frac using 5 1/2 inch casing off the same pad should yield a better result - if Tamboran wasn't looking for a better result the Pioneer based technical team would not have suggested/approved all the additional expense.

Longknife: Only makes sense to say 5 mmcf/d and that is their conservative number. The normalized rate of the Amungee well was 5.2 mmcf/d and this wells is drilled off the same pad. These shale wells shouldn't vary that much all things being equal. But in this case all things are not equal. The well was cased with 5 1/2 casing and there is a planned 24 stage frack planned. I can assure you that these two changes are much more expensive than the 4 1/2 casing and the basic 10 stage frack of the Amungee well. If they are spending more, Tamboran is expecting a return on that additional expense. Right or wrong I have gone on record as predicting this well will come in at 6.5 - 7 mmcf/d/1000 meters.

3 mmcf/d is the basic amount needed for commerciality - 5mmcf/day is the conservative expectation of Tamboran - 6.5 - 7 is likely where it will come in (IMO). At 6.5 - 7 mmcf/d not only MacQuarie but the whole market will sit up and take notice - you will see a nice jump in FOG/Tamboran.

Anyone else have any predictions of what we might be looking at?

Wow - lots of grammer and other errors in my last post - I had someone waiting for me in a car and I obviously just threw it together - Still wishing for an edit button on the board!!

At the end of the post I meant for it to say 5 - 10% interest. I feel Falcon will participate in some regard unless it is just not feasible for some reason.