Member Info for WetWater

dprussky - Your not clueless by any means my friend. As I said I think Falcon is fine in the deal as proposed by Tamboran. If Falcon executes the FROR then they own all the prime acreage in the Beetaloo. Yeah, there will be some type of dilution and certainly disruption but for what Falcon shareholders receive in increased value they would accept any delay. Once Falcon acquires 100% of the 4.6 million acres they may in fact have to put off the next two wells - not a big deal with the all weather roads. When the dust settles maybe Tamboran and Falcon kiss and make up and Tamboran is given a farm-down to drill those wells plus others - With Tamboran's less than stellar acreage they will continue to be a potential partner of Falcon - it will just be on Falcon's terms.

From a Falcon shareholder's perspective it will be a fun game to watch. For a Tamboran shareholder this game is much more serious. It will be an interesting 4 weeks.

dprussky: Its not a bad deal for Falcon! That's what I pointed out when I said Falcon's downside to not being successful with their FROR is much less than Tamboran's downside of their deal not working out. I have no doubts that Tamboran would do Falcon a good job over the next 2- 4 wells - I just don't really trust them after that - Sheffield and Tamboran have shown their true colors. You are only wanting to look at what might be bad with Tamboran being the operator - for the next 4 wells I would much rather have Tamboran than Origin. But Falcon shareholders are looking past these next 4 wells. Surely you realize what's at stake after that.

I have followed you too long to believe you are clueless as to how this could be a potential windfall for Falcon going forward. Ironically, Falcon wouldn't have this opportunity if it weren't for Tamboran's aggressive desire to take over the Beetaloo. I respect your views but you really need to be more objective in evaluating this deal from both sides.

The real shame of this deal is there is so much damn acreage involved in this concession that Falcon could have been brought into this deal from the start and treated as an equal partner - there is plenty of potential for Tamboran and Falcon. Why Origin and Tamboran would go behind Falcon's back knowing that Falcon held a first right of refusal has me scratching my head - This could have been a much more friendly deal all the way around. Maybe we get to that point in the end but right now, IMO, it was not handled properly.

Falconman - From your mouth to God's ears!!!

dprussky: Are you serious when you say "Falcon also can choose to exercise the ROFR if they so chose, but since Tambo will do the same thing (but probably cheaper and faster) what Origin was planning to do , why would Falcon even bother with it". Why bother?? How about Falcon takes 100% control of the prime acreage in the Beetaloo and then farms-down that vast 4.6 million acres for a carry or $$$ upfront. If Tamboran plays nice going forward Falcon might even farm-down some real prime acreage to them - for a price of course. Why bother ??- are you keeping us with what's at stake? You might need to take off those Tamboran glasses you have purchased and look at the deal objectively. If Falcon swings this deal their market value based on land value alone goes from what is currently about $125 million market cap to about $675 million market cap for the cost of $175 million dollars. That's about $375 million reasons on why to bother.

Newtofo: I suspect Mr. O'Quigley is not taking Mr. Riddle or Mr. Sheffield's calls at the moment. Philip is likely very busy exploring his other options. Hopefully the next time he holds any discussions with these scoundrels it will be from a position of strength.

Dprussky: If POQ pulls a rabbit out of his hat then it should still be no problem for Tamboran shareholders - they still have their Top Tier 1 Plus "prime core assets of the Beetaloo" to invest all that money into. Funny how quickly Tamboran appears to be kicking their prime acreage to the curb in their future drilling program. If, and I acknowledge that might be a big if, Falcon pulls this off you Tamboran shareholders are going nowhere fast with your crap acreage. Falcon's downside in this coup attempt is not nearly what Tamboran's downside looks like. High stakes poker guy - place your bets accordingly.

Newtofo: I agree 100% that there were no behind the scenes agreements preceding the deal announcement.... Furthermore, if I read Philip correctly, we will not hear anything more regarding the ROFR prior to the 30 day expiration window. I can see POQ letting Tamboran and Origin twist in the wind with the uncertainty of what Falcon's next move will be.

IMO, at some point over the next couple of weeks Tamboran is going to be asked by journalist to address the potential ROFR - at least these questions should be asked the closer we get to the 30 day expiration window and with no indications from Falcon. The market should be able to expect more visibility of the ROFR other than buried in the footnotes of the risk involved - it seems Tamboran is glossing over a big potential risk to their deal - the ROFR is no small detail! Maybe that's just me talking out of frustration - I'm certainly not unbiased in this takeover bid.

Philip knows when to play his cards - I guess we'll have to see how the game plays out.

Newtofo: I'm scratching my head over that one also. We need to find someone with a lawyers cap on to tell us what that means. I'm assuming that maybe they are required to complete all the financial transactions such as BS getting his 38% of possibly their existing permits?? - Really don't know.

kmjliveson: Nice post and to a I agree to a certain point. I think Tamboran would do a good job on the next two Origin planned wells and also the following two Amungee 3 and Amungee 4 wells which are the beginning of their pilot program. Its after that I think we need to be watching our back - we have seen/experienced they are not the most ethical bunch of people to work with.

So yes - maybe for the next four wells things well on the surface. Its after those wells that I suspect Tamboran/Sheffield's greed kicks back in - their goal IMO is to take over all the 4.6 million concession. Also if Falcon rolls over, it gives up what could be a immediate 4X growth factor in their stock value. I have seen numbers that if Falcon can pull this off their market cap could be $650 - $700 million before the games even begin. If we are in the driver's seat then Falcon is the one doing the farm-downs and determining their future. We have seen where sitting in the back of the bus has gotten us over the last few years - I for one would like to be the driver of the bus for a change!

I'm praying that Philip can work his magic and pull this off. If that doesn't pan out then I'm praying that Falcon can survive long enough to reap some decent rewards from this 15 year odyssey. This next 28 days will be very important for we Falcon shareholders - let's see what happens.

Hey Oleo: Saw the listed risk this morning. At least they know we exist :^)

From Tamborans risk section of their funding offer:

"The completion of the acquisition by Tamboran of the Origin Assets will result in Tamboran being required to offer its new joint venture partner, a subsidiary of Falcon Oil and Gas Ltd, the joint venture participating interest which Origin held on the same terms as Tamboran obtained for the acquisition of the Origin Assets, modified to be relevant to the sale of the joint venture interest. It is uncertain whether Falcon will exercise its purchase option. If it does, Tamboran will still be required to complete the Transition irrespective of Falcon's position. If an exercise of Falcon's purchase option was to occur Tamboran will need to consider alternative uses for the relevant portion of the capital raise."

Hmmm - Just listened to Tamboran's investor webcast tonight - never hardly heard Falcon even mentioned and certainly not anything regarding any preemptive rights or Falcon being a partner going forward. I take it from their discussions that they assuming Falcon is just going to rollover, tuck their tail and go away - I don't think that's going to happen that way guys!

Interesting in their presentation that pretty much without saying it they think their current acreage is crap! Their first four planned wells are Amungee wells and in their discussions, they indicated that a drilling program would move from the Amungee area south towards the Kyalla area. In the presentation, their Maverick well was termed a commitment well to hold that permit. It is a vertical well and they indicated the horizontal well would be drilled next year due to contracts with the government - they don't seem to think very highly of that well. Riddle also indicated that the 'Origin' acreage holds about 10X the Tier 1 Plus acreage that their two existing permits hold. From their current drilling plans one can easily see that they are not happy with the potential of the 136 and 161 permit areas. Tamboran spent approximately $50+ million dollars putting together a public company that acquired the old Sweetpea/Petrohunter acreage that Falcon cast aside. They now see that their acreage does not hold the potential to build a public company and thus are out to weasel their way into the prime acreage Falcon holds. I have always heard Riddle was a bit of a slimy person and he certainly didn't change my opinion tonight.

I pray that Falcon can successfully exercise their first rights of refusal to acquire Origin's acreage and throw the Tamboran bums out to the curb and restrict their future drilling to what in their terms is "their core Beetaloo area" :^) These guys have my dandruff up and I only hope that Philip can tell them to put their deal where the sun doesn't shine!!

Yea - I'm ****ed after watching that BS.

All: I stand corrected on my proposal to just buy the 77.5% interest for $60 million and worry about the rest later. I was told by a knowledgeable person that not only does Origin have a contract with Falcon for the next two wells - They also have a contract with the government to drill those wells. Therefore if Falcon were to buy Origin out they need to raise $150 million and drill the additional two wells as contracted.

Longknife - sometimes I don’t make ‘good’ sense!!

Oleo: I totally agree that 29 days is a short timeframe but I also think for what's at stake $45 million USD might not be a big hurdle for an aggressive JR oil company or independent. Heck, that kind of money is pocket change for some of the independents here in the PB. For anyone wanting exposure to the Beetaloo partnering with Falcon could be a sweet deal. For all we know it could just be a financial investment for a non-oil person/company/institution. Lots of potential for someone willing to roll the dice.

dprussky: Either the Origin contract is in effect or it is not. For Tamboran to be agreeable to carry Falcon's $80 million carry for the next two wells tends to make me believe the contract is in place. Sorry but I don't understand why Falcon not taking action on Origin wanting to acquire a partner would/should effect the terms of a contract already in place. As I said - it appears Origin and Tamboran also think the original Origin contract is legal and something that has to be dealt with.

Frackme: I believe your are right that a future deal can likely include Tamboran and BS - but its going to be on Falcon's terms. I'll sing Philip's praises but he is not an Oil and Gas operator. We need a Tamboran or Santos, etc. to run the rigs and geology. That's not taking away from Philip but I think its being realistic. At this point Falcon just needs to at least raise the $60 million Aussie dollars - that's about $40 - $45 million USD? Once they do that they can have the luxury of time to build a plan from there.

$40 - $45 million USD for 4.6 million acres of prime World Class Beetaloo acreage - I'm betting someone takes part of that deal!

Oleo: I know a guy that loosely controls about 15 -20% of the outstanding Falcon stock. I also know the Falcon's Board is in Philips corner. If Philip is fighting to acquire 100% of the 4.6 million acre concession for Falcon's benefit, then I don't see BS getting enough shareholder support to do what you are thinking.

Oleo: I have heard through the grapevine that Philip said if he didn't go all out and attempt to get this deal done then the shareholders and board should "run his arse off". He considers this a slap in the face - this is much more than about his contract. Think about it, Origin and Tamboran/BS completely went around his back on this - no respect given to Falcon whatsoever. What Origin did was flat out wrong and POQ intends to throw a big ROFR monkey wrench into that deal. Origin and Tamboran may have done Falcon a sweet deal by negotiating such a low price for 77.5% of the Beetaloo. Lets see what POQ can get done over the next 29 days!

Don't be snookered into thinking that Philip is a mild guy that just sits behind his desk and plays golf three days a week. Being fully carried for years that was his job but he still is the same guy that pulled off the $200 million Origin deal - he's a strategic thinker/poker player when that is called for. Just saying - don't underestimate this guy. IMO Tamboran and BS are going to meeting the real POQ.

Oleo: I strongly suspect POQ is not taking BS's calls right now. POQ is going to deal with BS from a position of strength - you don't just give up the ROFR for a pancake and waffle :^)

ITS A FACT Guys - Falcon does have preemptive rights given in the Origin contract. Tamboran has done a good job of talking around this point with the journalist. The ROFR is not even mentioned in the last 12 hours of news releases concerning Tamboran's move - I can tell you it IS in the contract and IS going to have to be addressed in this deal. I suspect Sheffield/Tamboran thought they were going to just steam roll over Falcon - its not going to happen that easily. Falcon is going to make an all out effort to raise the money to match the deal - if they can make that raise, then and only then, do they deal with BS and Tamboran from a position of strength. I know Philip is ****ed and knowing Philip he is laying the groundwork to jerk the rug out from underneath this one sided deal. The next 30 days are going to be interesting.
In my opinion, if raising the $150 million is a challenge (which I don't think it will be) then why the hell not go back and raise $60 million to acquire Origin's acreage - Falcon is not on the hook to drill the next two wells if push comes to shove - they are only committed to themselves. Acquire Origin's 77.5% position and then go back to Tamboran and make a deal to farm down some acreage on Falcon's Terms and get the wells paid for in return. Or maybe go to Santos or whomever and pull another Origin type deal to work a carry going forward. The most important thing to be done at this point is to at least acquire Origin's 77.5% interest.
The important thing is to acquire the 77.5% and then we worry about getting the wells drilled in due time.

IMO, Falcon holds a big stick at these negotiations - Tamboran/BS and the journalist may want to turn a blind eye to the ROFR but its in the contract and and its going to be hard for Tamboran to get around that.

Northern Magic - The carry will be met/over by this coming January. After the next two well are drilled/fracked we likely are on our own. If I understood correctly, the Origin/Tamboran agreement says that Tamboran is to reimburse Origin for any Beetaloo related expenditures after May 14th(?). If that is true then Tamboran is in effect carrying Falcon's portion of the 2022 drilling program. Next question - Is Tamboran in effect the drilling contractor for these next two wells?? If the Tamboran/Origin deal is not set in stone for another 30 days does that put off these next two wells another month? I need to upgrade my crystal ball - too many unknowns in this equation.