Member Info for WetWater

Longknife - Yep - I agree facts are facts.

Sorry guy - From the tone of your post I appear to have stepped on your toes and and caused a little tantrum. I'll try to be a little more considerate of you in the future.

Longknife: You say "the fact is we have done very little since the moratorium" WTF! Go back and reread my post - Origin/Falcon have made great strides in proving up the huge potential since the moratorium. I'll give you that Origin 'moves like molasses' so what do you propose Falcon do about that? Some on this board still don't seem to have grasp the fact that Origin is the operator - As I have mentioned many time - Falcon is no longer driving this proverbial bus. You and others can moan all you want but it won't change the fact that Falcon has little if much of any say on Origin's timeline.

You add "Virtually nothing being done in the last year". You appear to think the 2022 drilling program just pops up out of a box of crakerjacks - there is a lot of planning going on behind the scenes to facilitate the drilling two horizontals 1500 miles from god knows where.

You say "Origin will have 77pct plus of Falcons' permits- for what??? " - How about the millions upon millions of dollars they have carried Falcon over this project and the clout they hold with the NWT to get fracking in the Beetaloo approved in the first place - Because of Origin's carry Falcon is still in this game and the table has been set to grow the value of your so touted 7 digits shares.

Longknife - I really don't care a rat's arse about how young you 'retired' or how smart of a speculative stock investor you might be - What I am saying is that if you can't tolerate Falcon/Origin and are so unhappy about their Beetaloo accomplishments over these many years then maybe its time you change horses. If you are one to sit up and take notice of Dprussky's actions then maybe you should consider following his lead.

Longknife: Sorry guy, I don't agree with your assessment that "It really IS sad that so little has been accomplished over such a long time with huge amounts of money!" It sounds as if you are not even remotely aware of what all has been accomplished in the Beetaloo over the last many years and the expense/efforts involved in drillings multiple appraisal wells in the middle of god-forsaken nowhere! We have seen this project take on Judge Pepper and her nearly two year halt on drilling (that was the moratorium and the subsequent rewrite of the drilling regulations for horizontal drilling in NWT). We have witnessed the drilling of five wells that proved up the existence of Middle Velkerri B shale along with the A and C shale across the huge aerial extent of the Beetaloo concession ( 20, 50 and 70 miles apart) all while being about 2500 km from oil any field services/suppliers. We have announced a 6.6 TCF world class natural gas discovery. We drilled a well that proved the huge potential of the million acre liquid rich Kyalla formation. We drilled a highly successful vertical test on the wet gas Velkerri Flank well. We are on the brink of drilling two Velkerri member wells this year which based their close proximity of the Amungee NW-H-1, will in all likelihood, reflect the same normalized 5.2 - 5.8 mmcf/d production rate of the Amungee NW-H1. Other operators have begun to follow our initial success and are drilling what appears to be exciting successful Santos, Tamborini and Empire wells. We are on the cusp of beginning the highly commercial move to a 10 - 12 well pilot program this next year. The Beetaloo is coming to the attention of major oil companies across the globe AND YET YOUR SO SAD so little has been accomplished??

I am excited about the huge potential of the Beetaloo nowadays. FYI - I never expected Origin to stay long term with this project - they are, after all, basically a Utility company - E&P does not fit into their business model. I eagerly await the announcement that Origin will be farming down their interest in the Beetaloo. Falcon's board on the other hand has begun to realize the extreme potential that the Beetaloo holds and have gone from selling out to proving up more acreage.

I have heard very exciting rumors as to whom Origin is in talks with - if rumor has is right, that transaction will be sooner rather than later. Falcon is on the verge of greatly improving its shareholder value - yours and mine!

But then again, maybe you and the other similarly SAD people need to move along to another industry that you better understand and can appreciate.

Newtofo - Thanks for the link to the Delineation Program EMP - that's just what I was looking for. 4 pads with 3 wells each located on each side of the Amungee NW-1H and a little south of the highway - it looks to be about a 300 sq km area?

Newtofo - Thanks for the clarification. Do you have a link to the EMP for the Pilot Production area. I seem I recall they were planning on drilling abut 3-4 wells per pad? If so, are we are talking about 3 pads? I am also assuming these pads will be along the Carpenteria Hwy - likely east of the current planned wells?

I hope that Origin will swallow a little bit of their pride and hire some experienced personnel to assist in the drilling/completing of the next two wells and along with the pilot wells. IMO, Origin has relinquished what should have been their leadership position in the Beetaloo to that of playing second fiddle. I'm getting frustrated with their apparent lack of leadership - I feel that Origin is dragging their feet/drilling schedules intentionally so that the other contractors in the Beetaloo can show them the way and prove up the fracking/completion techniques to follow. Probably smart when you don't have the personnel/experience to take that lead - hopefully Sheffield's people can assist if Origin will pay attention.

As to the Green People - would they rather the pilot wells be flared for extended periods of time - these people are grasping at straws here. If the pilot program flared all that gas they would rigger - now that it might be captured/compressed and put in a pipeline they still complain about all the climate damage. These guys are not doing themselves any favors by talking out of both sides of their mouth.

ITguy: I'm not saying your Velkerri S2-1 site is wrong but I thought this pad was located off the Carpentaria Hwy about 10 KM from the Amungee NH-1 site. I'm not seeing the highway anywhere around this site. Please feel free to correct me as I may not know what I am looking at.

Thanks for our work in putting this together!

Hardrock: LOL! - Yes didn't give the yard comment much thought - maybe that will be a proper Beetaloo happening in years to come.
Thanks for putting a name on the rig to be used.

dprussky: No problem. You might go back to the Q&A portion of the recent Investor Presentation. Philip pretty clearly addresses your concerns regarding the rig availability.

dprussky: I don't understand your comment "So they (Tambo) have this rig for 60 days so this will put drilling for Falcon about November". POQ made it clear on his investor call that Origin is not waiting on its contracted rig completing another drilling program. The rig Origin contracted was in a yard undergoing some minor modifications which was the cause for the September spud date. IMO, Tambo's Ensign 970 rig is a different rig.

Thanks guys for your thoughts on the investor presentation. Contrary to some on this board everything seems to be on track with the Beetaloo. Seems we are waiting on Hot Rig modifications but with the all weather access, the 2022 drilling program is still in place. I’m still hoping for 5mmcf/d results. With those results I’m looking for USD 50 1st qtr 2023. I’m on the road but will add a few more shares next week - with the expected results being put out, the stock seems a huge buy right now.

For those not familiar with shale fields, the Amungee B formation should yield very similar results as our original discovery well - baring a down hole problem.

Found my chat button filter today - won’t miss that poster - all negative and nothing constructive to offer.
GLA

Sneaky: Short answer - No I have not talked to POQ in regards to my flow rate estimate. The original 1000 meter Amungee discovery well has a normalized flow rate of 5 MMcf/d. Therefore my estimate for a 2000 meter commercial well in close proximity would likely flow 7-10 mmcf/d.

I believe the 2-3 mmcf/d is a low threshold estimate for a commercial well with the current commodity pricing. These close proximity shale wells will likely have the same production characteristics as the original Amungee well. With the current 3D seismic being run the next wells will hopefully avoid the fault problems the original well encountered.

Hey Poods -Yes I had to chuckle to myself on the short squeeze comment! Good move in my opinion on the additional stock purchase and even though some on this board won’t agree, I continue to think Falcon is a great long term buy. IMO, if the next two test wells match the Amungee B 5 MMcf/day normalized rate, Falcon will be sitting sweet. I’m looking for 7-10 MMcf/d on 2000 meter horizontals. I’ve talked to Philip several times about the huge potential of participating in the Beetaloo longer term - looks like Falcon’s board is listening to its new board members.
I’m very pleased to hear about the 12(?) well pilot program - that project could put Falcon’s concession on the map.
I thought I heard on the call the mention of a strategic partner - maybe for the Velkerri Flank and possibly the Kaylla development along with large step outs of the Velkerri? I suspect Falcon/Origin will be focusing on the Amungee B member wells. My other suggestion to Falcon is to checkerboard any farmouts - let others take the risk leaving blocks of ‘infield’ drilling for future development.

I’m on the road and trying to type on an iPad which is a total pain! Just mainly wanted to let you know I agree with you on MOST things :^)

Sinceday1: That is the rate they need for commercial production on a 1000 meter well. IMO, based on the Amungee normalization rate, a 1000 meter test will likely be 5 MMscf/d and what are likely to be 2000 meter pilot program wells will be 7-10 MMscf/d wells. Falcon/Origin are playing it conservative just to not disappoint. With the commodity pricing of gas in the likely future, commerciality should not be a high bar.

Really glad to see this new board looking longer term. With the huge potential of the Beetaloo this stock is a great long term hold IMO.

Quick thought on the call:
Extremely choppy call on my end. With POQ accent, my bad hearing and the tech difficulties it was hard to catch a lot of the call. I was glad to hear they are beginning to look longer term to 2023/2024 pilot program. Sounds like they will leave the Velkerri Flank and the Kyalla to a new strategic partner (Origin's farmout?) and focus strictly on the Amungee B member wells/pilot program. If I heard right, the company is planning a 12 well pilot program for 23/24.
The smartest thing they could proceed IMO is to focus on the pilot program and checkerboard out some of the Velkerri Flank and Kyalla acreage to the 'strategic' partner. That's the approach many companies with huge acreage blocks use in the states - let other companies take the risk to prove up acreage leaving 'infield' drilling for Falcon/Origin to develop at a later date.
With the planned improvements to the Carpenteria Hwy and the proposed location of the pilot program, one can expect drilling/fracking to become a year-round activity - the wet season will not be that much of a factor. Thats how they drill 12 wells in two years for the pilot program.
The current commodity pricing is playing right into Falcon's hands and is giving a sense of urgency to move towards production and away from any further appraisal and exploration wells at this time.
From what I could hear it was a very positive call. I think the new board members are changing the way Origin/Falcon will operate going forward - a lot more long-term thinking - especially on Falcon's part.

Guys: Sorry for the confusion on the meeting time. I knew it was at 4:00 Dublin - just looked at my calendar and put my local time down. My Error.

Yes Jhealy - we are indeed a scattered bunch!

SneakySnake - Not missing in action - just sitting back watching things move at a snail's pace. I have accepted that Falcon has no say in the current timeline. We shareholders and Falcon are at the mercy of Origin Energy which is a larger utility company that doesn't move as fast as we would like on the E&P front.

Rest assured I am still as bullish as I ever was on Falcon's Beetaloo concession. I am trying to sit on my thumbs but still admit to buying additional shares from time to time. If I have something timely/appropriate to add to the conversation I will post but frankly as of late there hasn't been much of anything to discuss - at least nothing worthwhile I can add at this point.

I appreciate this board and believe it is well worth keeping up with - it's a great source of timely industry news and like all of us I have learned who to follow and who to ignore. We'll all gain our just reward - it's just a question of when!! GLA

Origin789 and all: Just trying to verify I have the correct information on this end. I have seen several post today that refer to the AGM meeting being 'tomorrow'. On my calendar I show it being held on Thursday July 14th at 10:00 Dublin time.

Don't want anyone who is wanting to tune in to miss out on the meeting.

As all of you, I am looking forward to POQ verifying the updated timeline for this 2022 drilling season. Ready to get this news rolling again.

Everyone take a deep breath and try to relax. Just as you, I am frustrated by the lack of apparent progress so far this year. Not only is there a lack of progress but also a lack of news from Falcon. With that said we must remember that Origin is still driving this train and we run on their schedule. Falcon (POQ) is reluctant to get out in front of Origin in any news release.

For all we know the seismic has been run and is being evaluated. We were told to look for drilling to begin in June - Origin is not yet late on that prediction. What is our CEO supposed to relate to the market that would be helpful - maybe things are still on schedule? Does that tell us anything we don't already know - to expect drilling to commence in June - is that a newsworthy event for a news release?

I would hope that Falcon would let us know if drilling was not going to commence this dry season - that would be a newsworthy release IMO and something Falcon could justify getting out in front of Origin - a delay may not be a newsworthy event for Origin but, IMO, would be for Falcon.

I think it is accepted knowledge that Origin's farm-down is in play - is that taking precedent at this time - I don't know. I suspect Philip is also frustrated with Origin's slow pace but that is what we get when a non-drilling company is running the show. Origin has saved our bacon over the years by being large and relatively stable and well respected company - now we have to learn to accept their lead.

GLA - These are trying times for many - me included!

Oleo: POQ has pushed this project from the start - In fact he chaired a group that tried to get the necessary political changes/regulations that would allow the project to move forward. From what I recall, the government wanted too big of a cut off the top to make the project viable. Also with the corrupt political system no company felt comfortable enough to invest huge amounts of money in the project that could easily be confiscated/nationalized by the government. As if that was not enough a company had to run their project with local help which made no sense.

There was a SA election two - three years ago - Falcon hoped it would change out leadership and improve the situation - instead the new group made things even worse. Maybe someday things will change but right now the majors are staying away from the Karoo Basin.

IMO we will hear/see something from our spy in the sky guy before we see anything come across the wire. On past wells the rig has been on site about a week before any announcement is made.
I'm guessing the Amungee well will be drilled before the newly planned 10lm step out. We know the coordinates of that Amungee site so keep your satellite eyes trained.