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Thanks Newtofo and OrsonM for making the connection on the Velkerri wet. This is great news for Origin/Falcon on the proposed permit #76 Velkerri wet gas well. Sadly we as Falcon owners may never see what type of potential our Velkerri Wet well holds - SAID WITH A SMILE ON MY FACE! I have said since the start Falcon did not have sufficient wells to prove up this huge Beetaloo concession. If the Kyalla holds the potential we all hope then the Velkerri dry and Velkerri Wet will be an asterisk to this project's potential when Falcon puts together an their sales package. All is good and at the same time its nice to have fall back positions. Thanks Guys!
Oleo: I am not an engineer but will attempt to answer some questions to the best of my ability.
During fracking thousands of barrels of frack fluid mixed with proppant (sand) is pumped downhole - the extreme over pressuring of this fluid along with the natural pressure of the well will force the recovery of this fluid leaving much of the sand(proppants) in place as the well cleans itself up. Most of the proppants remain locked in the formation holding the fractures open for gas to flow to the well bore. As the frack fluid is recovered the well well cleans itself up and the volume/pressure of the gas/distillates will increase. At some point the engineers will deem the well sufficiently clean to initiate the initial 24 hour flow test constantly monitoring/gauging the volume/pressure/fluid content - I don't know how long it takes for the well to clean itself prior to this initial test but just guessing I would say 2 - 3 weeks??
This well has been fracked in 11 stages. In order to sufficiently pressure/frack each stage it is required that the well be plugged after each stage before fracking the next stage - they will back themselves out of the hole with each stage. After the fracking is completed the plugs will be removed.
Is nitrogen used to help with the hydrostatic pressure the well? - Don't know is that would be required. Was coiled tubing utilized? - The well bore is cased as the horizontal is drilled and then the casing is perforated prior to fracking - I don't know why coiled tubing would be utilized in this type of well. Oleo: I'm out of the office but there are schematics of the Judge Pepper requirements for wellheads/casing in many of the reports Origin/Falcon have put out - that would answer that question. I do recall Origin complaining that these wells were way over engineered to the point it may them less safe - but then Pepper's merry band of NON-experts overruled those that knew better - still a sore spot with many in the industry.
AGAIN - I am not an engineer so take all of this with a grain of salt. I could be dead wrong on much of this. If there is an engineer (Nano?) around please help the board/myself out in understanding the finer details of this type of fracked wells.
I remember when I was young that one could literally stand outside at night and read the paper by the light of gas being flared. I passed a huge flare today headed out of town - it was about 100 yards off the road - made me hope for that kind of volume on the Kyalla/Amungee though that is discouraged more and more nowadays.
Hey Poods: Not really surprised that Cenkos can't find a home for Sweetpea's stock at this juncture. With the soon to be released 24 hour initial flow test giving investors an indication of the Kyalla 117's potential it might be prudent for a buyer to have access to that flow test data before pulling the trigger. I have heard scuttlebutt that there are buyers in the wings. If the Kyalla 117 is good then these buyers will pay up - IMO that's more prudent than buying this position today to find out in a couple of weeks that the well is marginable or mediocre at best and watching their newly purchased block drop in value. If the well is as good as we hope meets expectations then we know where the next stage2 well is going to be drilled and the outlook for Falcon's position is greatly enhanced. Not that I have the money to buy that block but that would be the way I would play the Sweetpea stock game.
I would caution anyone new to the industry to be aware that this 24 hour test is only an indication of potential - what Falcon and Origin want to see is what the well is doing in 30, 60 and most importantly 90 days. A great initial 24 hour test could be very encouraging. If I recall correctly, Origin flowed the Amungee well for 57(?) days - maybe because they saw the NT's moratorium raising it head and wanted to make their amazing discovery announcement before the sh*t completely hit the fan and Pepper assembled her Scientific Board of NON-Experts to define industry regs of which they knew little about (JMO).
GLA
A link to another nice article appearing in the Katherine Times - "All eyes turn to the Beetaloo, the nation's El Dorado"
"Depending on who you talk to, there's enough gas down there to supply the nation for hundreds of years."
"Origin Energy, the owner of the Amungee well we visited after their successful tests, calls it the most promising shale gas resource anywhere in the world."
https://www.katherinetimes.com.au/story/6925870/all-eyes-turn-to-the-beetaloo-the-nations-el-dorado/?cs=1459
Carboncub: The Velkerri 'Flank' is just another name for the Velkerri wet gas play. Called the flank because it is located on the edge of the Velkerri where the formation shallows - its the second stage2 drilling location on the east edge of Falcon's Beetaloo concession.
Carboncub: Still alive, well and monitoring the board. There is not anything much to add during this COVID shutdown. I've been told we will see the startup of fracking sometime this month. If Origin lives up to past releases they will delay the actual announcement of the fracking process for a week or so. Don't look for Falcon to make any announcement until Origin initiates the news release.
For those that may not be aware, Falcon is pushing Origin to begin the Velkerri 'Flank' well asap. Hopefully they can get Origin off high center and proceed with this stage2 drilling program.
I see two green filtered messages after your inquiring post - since I only have one of this board's 'valuable' posters blocked I guess I'll have to miss whatever insite he offered - Whoops! - now I only see one filtered message - guessing one got censored - probably not much of a loss :^)
Take Care and GLA
Newtofo: Nice reply to dprussky.
I found the following quote in the Tamboran interesting "Tamboran has told potential investors its goal is to develop at least 5 trillion cubic feet of proven and probable reserves to help with the shortfall, with initial production of at least 36 petajoules a year". So their GOAL is to prove up 5 TCF of proven resources - Falcon/Origin has already established 6.6 TCF of contingent probable resources on their concession and we have strong indications that two stage3 offsetting wells would likely prove up and additional 6 TCF each. If that happens then very possibly we have 18 TCF contingent proven resources which would be reclassified to proven reserves with a commercial discovery claim - potentially 4X the goal of Tamboran's 5 TCF. Targeting the Velkerri B dry gas with stage3 wells will only happen if the Kyalla does not live up to our expectations (likewise for the Velkerri wet). It is well known that Origin/Falcon's acreage lies in the prime fairway of the Velkerri B formation and in addition we have a multiple stacked play potential with the Velkerri C, Kyalla and the Hayfield. I think I will stay put with Origin/Falcon rather than chasing rainbows somewhere else.
I understand that many are frustrated with the slow pace of Origin - we see that same slow pace out of the large shale players (Chevron, Oxy, etc.) here in the Permian Basin. Origin is out to develop this huge potential resource in a methodical conservative fashion whereas Tamboran is driving forward to generate interest in a potental IPO.
Though the timing is now out of Falcon's hands, Origin is in the end game of the Falcon carry. I plan to see this through before I jump ship into another play.
Beetaloo gas play Tamboran pitches whopper IPO to investors
Sarah Thompson, Anthony Macdonald and Tim Boyd
Jul 21, 2020 – 9.35pm
East coast gas market hopeful Tamboran Resources is in front of fund managers outlining the biggest mooted Australian oil and gas sector initial public offering in years.
Tamboran Resources is seeking to raise $195 million in the coming six months to fund commitments across its three assets, including one jointly owned with local heavyweight Santos.
More than $US350 million has been spent exploring the Betaloo Basin since the 1960s, and Origin Energy and Santos’ emergence in recent years combined with regulatory changes has revived interest. James Davies
Its pitch is about becoming the ASX’s only pure-play Beetaloo Basin project developer (and later producer) of size, at a time when Australia’s east coast gas market is screaming out for new sources of supply.
The Beetaloo Basin is one logical place to help fill the gas market supply shortfall, which is forecast from 2024. Tamboran has three assets in the McArthur Basin, within the Beetaloo sub-basin, which is located about 500 kilometres south of Darwin.
Tamboran has told potential investors its goal is to develop at least 5 trillion cubic feet of proven and probable reserves to help with the shortfall, with initial production of at least 36 petajoules a year. It says more than $US350 million has been spent exploring the Beetaloo Basin on and off since the 1960s, and Origin Energy and Santos’ emergence in recent years combined with regulatory changes has revived interest.
First, though, Tamboran needs fresh capital. It is seeking to raise $30 million to $50 million in a pre-initial public offering raising via Bell Potter Securities to fund pressing commitments now, with plans to return to the market for another $160 million in an IPO slated for as soon as the December quarter.
Funds raised would be used to complete a pair of acquisitions – including Paul Fudge’s Pangaea Resources for $19 million, and an American company called Sweetpea Petroleum, both of which are neighbours in the Beetaloo.
Whopper deal
It’s a mammoth raising in Australian oil and gas and particularly given challenges in energy markets globally. The world leaders in shale, the US producers, are mostly either in distress or even bankrupt. Locally, there are doubts about how much time Santos and others will spend trying to progress their Northern Territory projects next year.
But fund managers reckon that if anyone could pull it off, it could be Tamboran whose team is spearheaded by some US shale pioneers and Australian industry players. Chairman Patrick Elliott founded Eastern Star Gas, which Santos bought for $924 million in 2011, while former Petrohawk Energy Corp founder and president Dick Stoneburner is a director. BHP bought Petrohawk for $US12.1 billion.
Longknife - Yes - I was told that (not .04 but a weakening) but then to expect a nice jump if the Kyalla well looks positive. For now its all about the Kyalla, the Velkerri wet and then the stage 3 wells - our fortunes will rise and fall as these wells progress. We still have the excellent contingent resources in the Velkerri B. If the Kyalla and Velkerri aren't as positive as we would like, Origin can move back north to the Velkerri B dry gas for the stage3 wells and potentially turn that 6.6 TCF of contingent resources into something like 18 TCF of probable reserves. At the end of the day its all about proving up the commerciality of the Beetaloo concession.
Schlemiel: I have heard that we might not know the status of fracking the Kyalla until the job is completed. It seems that Origin doesn't want to stir up the anti-fracking group anymore than necessary. Maybe around September we will get good results on the initial flow test. Keep your fingers crossed.
Whats lacking is the declaration of the Amungee/Velkerri 'B' being a Commercial Discovery. It will take additional wells to prove up the Velkerri B - the Santos Velkerri B well will help. Thus we get back to my unanswered concern - if the Kyalla looks great and it is the target of the Stage 3 wells what becomes of the Velkerri B dry gas discovery - can Origin/Falcon realize the potential of that 6.6 TCF of contingent resources. The Velkerri B holds tremendous potential yet it might play second fiddle to the Kyalla - time will tell.
Sorry for the formatting in the previous post - Didn't see that one coming!
cont...
“This is exactly the sort of uncertain messaging that drives investors away right at the time when the NT is most in need of additional business investment,” he said.
“The broader business community should be rightly concerned about the uncertainty that policies like these create for private investment in any industry in the Territory.
“Successful exploration, appraisal and development of the Northern Territory’s natural gas resources could provide significant benefits including jobs, local business opportunities, new value-adding industries, infrastructure and community investment for decades to come.”
The Chamber of Commerce NT says it does not support the Territory Alliance policy on hydraulic fracturing because it did not seem to take into account the evidence or logic that has been comprehensively considered by the Pepper Inquiry, the NT Government’s inquiry into fracking.
“This is a major concern for Territory business and sends mixed messages from a party that puts itself forward as an alternative government,” Chamber chief executive Greg Ireland said.
Master Builders NT was also left shaking its head.
“We are in the middle of an economic crisis and we are going to have to find a way to rebuild our economy,” chief executive David Malone said.
“We should not be taking anything that achieves that off the table. An onshore gas industry has many downstream benefits.”
Following is an article that addresses some of the politics surrounding fracking in the NT. Basically the leadership in the Territory Alliance party did a flip from pro-fracking to anti-fracking. This was a desperate attempt to garner votes for the upcoming election pitting Territory Alliance Leader Terry Mills against Michael Gunner, the current Chief Minister. The move left people scratching their heads as Terry Mills has previously been a staunch supporter of the shale industry. Not to worry though - the NT News, a major NT paper did an online survey of its readers in Darwin, Alice Springs, Katherine - areas known for their anti-fracking elements - the results: 68% supported fracking, 7% didn't give a frack and 25% were opposed to fracking. The writing is on the wall for this election and Mills flip didn't appear to add the votes he needs.The main purpose of this post is to let you guys know things are still moving forward - drilling will resume after the NT removes the covid restriction on July 17th. Origin has yet to announce when it plans to restart the fracking of the Kyalla 117 well along with drilling the Velkerri wet well. Peak business, industry groups slam Territory Alliance backflip on frackingTERRITORY Alliance’s Ban Fracking policy would put the creation of thousands of new jobs, hundreds of millions of dollars in work for local companies and revenues to the Territory government at risk, the peak body representing the gas industry says.GARY SHIPWAY, NT NewsTERRITORY Alliance’s Ban Fracking policy would put the creation of thousands of new jobs, hundreds of millions of dollars in work for local companies and revenues to the Territory government at risk, the peak body representing the gas industry says.APPEA Northern Territory director Keld Knudsen said the Territory Alliance policy also disrespected the consent and rights of Native Title holders, who support onshore gas development and put at risk their existing and future benefits and opportunities.“We are keen to understand how and why Mr Mills’ view has changed,” Mr Knudsen said.“The backflip is staggering given Mr Mills said in January: ‘If onshore gas is a viable industry in every way, then we should welcome it as a part of our economy. To do otherwise would send a message of uncertainty and governmental incompetence to all businesses right at the time when the NT is most in need of additional business investment.’Territory Alliance Leader Terry Mills has also alienated himself with the peak body representing Northern Territory business, which was blindsided by his shock policy announcement.Mr Knudsen said APPEA’s members stood ready to invest hundreds of millions of dollars in to exploring the NT’s natural gas reserves, and if exploration is successful, there would be many times that spent in bringing these anticipated projects to full production.
Don't forget the Feds promised to take away the NT's beggin plate if they didn't move forward developing their own natural resources making an honest attempt to become more self-sufficient financially. The repercussions of trying to stall/kill this industry would be pretty devastating to the needed jobs/economic health of the NT. The Feds have already cut funds from what is already a pretty tight budget and I suspect would be quick to make any attempt to ban fracking even more painful. With the NT being a territory dependent on the federal government I don't see this happening - just liberal ABC's promotion of the green agenda.
The way I read this is is still subject to the two 14 day covid cycles not spiking.
The Northern Territory will open its borders on Friday, July 17.
Chief Minister Michael Gunner has just announced the Territory will end its mandatory quarantine arrangements to all states and territories from 12:01am on July 17.
"This morning I received medical advice that community transmission down south is now tracking at an acceptable risk level," Mr Gunner said.
"Based on the evidence, our Chief Health Officer recommends a 28-day assessment period before opening our borders - which is two COVID-19 replication cycles.
"That is why we are waiting until next month."
NT Opposition leader Lia Finocchiaro this week said she would have opened the borders on Monday.
Mr Gunner said from July 17, arrivals will not have to self-quarantine for 14 days before enjoying the Territory.
"This gives the rest of Australia four weeks' notice, and it gives the Territory four weeks to get ready," he said.
"It gives businesses time to prepare. It gives us time to market the Territory to visitors.
"It gives us time to lock in the gains we've made - and be absolutely certain we aren't putting our progress at risk.
"Twenty-eight days notice makes sure we that we don't stuff this up."
The decision will come too late for the big dry season school break which ends that same weekend.
BlooBird: LOL! That looks like one of the old shallow oil fields of California - As Nerves said, what the NT will see will be much of nothing by comparison. Attached is a shot of three 'Christmas Trees' on a pad for the Marcellus (gas play somewhat analogous to the Beetaloo). This pad shot shows three wells in the picture - Origin has indicated there will be 8 - 16 of these wells per pad. Looking out towards the next pad you will need a good set of binoculars as the next pad will be about 4 - 5 miles away. There will be additional infrastructure for condensate gathering (Kyalla), roads, pipelines, etc. but nothing like the Economist BS picture.
https://www.chevron.com/stories/chevron-in-the-marcellus-shale
Oleo: Thanks for the link. I will look thru it when I have time but I can assure you that you do not want my opinion on water saturation levels - maybe that would be a better question addressed to Nano or some other guy that makes a living with a slide rule :^)
Oleo: Fog is being fully carried - they don't have the same risk as the shale oil/gas companies in the US or OZ. Our primary risk right now is exploratory/appraisal in nature. The oil/gas market in the Permian/US as in Australia are commodity based markets - rest assured the US/World needs energy and we are many many years away (if ever) from a self sustaining renewable energy base. Asia/East Coast Australia needs the Beetaloo gas - in a year or so when Falcon's Beetaloo interest goes to market the whole energy picture will have changed - you can't base today's drilling program on the current oil and gas prices.
I haven't seen the water saturation numbers you are referring to - can't address that.
Was anyone able to register for the Origin zoom meeting in a few hours from now? I requested a seat about three days ago but never received a response. Now I see that registration is closed. If anyone can give us any color on the meeting it would be appreciated. I'm sure the details of the meeting will come out soon.
Just received an email concerning my 2nd request:
Our events are hosted for our members and their guests. We do not provide a public platform for information.
If you are looking for information on Origin projects please visit their website.
So much for the non-member $15.00 registration fee :^(