Member Info for WetWater

As Oleo mentioned, what if Tamboran and Falcon merged?? It insures the future of Falcon shareholders going forward and avoids the potential issue of trying to keep up with Tamboran if they get aggressive in the Beetaloo development. I would be very comfortable with that kind of deal. With Sheffield holding larger positions in both companies he obviously might have an interest in that. A Tamboran merger solves the pedigree issue with it being an Australian company. I'm sure Philip could be appeased to not fight a merger with the right option package :^) If Tamboran could be persuaded to list themselves on a US exchange that would give them greater exposure to capital markets to make it a stock merger deal feasible.

Just thinking out loud - this is all above my paygrade. IMO, Falcon's number one priority is to stay in the game one way or the other. Let's see what happens.

Longknife - And you don't think Origin has gotten anything accomplished this year? Whether you like the deal or not, it looks like Origin has been extremely busy. Hopefully this deal doesn't overly delay the next two wells.

UncleBuck: Why would POODS' grandchildren be upset - it looks like the development schedule of the Beetaloo just took a huge jump forward. Personally, my grandchildren, if they understood what the hell was going on, would be pleased with an aggressive operator taking over the helm. Between Dr Close along with Sheffield and company we are in good hands.

Actually, I'm pleased with the proposed change of drilling contractors - now if Falcon can keep up with Sheffield & company's drilling schedule. Falcon has preemptive rights to acquire this Origin acreage but knowing our non-aggressive CEO and board I doubt they will exercise those rights. People want to look at the $60 million as a fire sale, which IMO it is, but what they are not seeing is the 5.5% royalty interest Origin is retaining on any future development projects in the Beetaloo - that holds huge potential for Origin going forward and makes it easy for them to meet their pledged emission goals while cashing in on ever increasing royalty income I was told last week that Origin was running scared of all the ESG crap - also, they are basically a utility company and needed to hold on to their capital to meet their current cash flow needs in this unstable utility market. There is a logical reason for them to do this deal even though on the surface it is not so apparent.

What happens tomorrow to Falcons' share price? - I don't see this Tamboran deal having any long-term effects for Falcon though Longknife and other nervous nellies might sell into a declining share price. Tamboran/Origin will begin drilling the next two planned wells and that is what holds the potential to drive Falcon's share price.

All is good though I must admit, I wish Falcon's board was more aggressive and picked up some of the acreage in this deal. Oh well we are still in good shape and having 22.5% of this monstrous Beetaloo Basin offers worlds of potential.

GLA

Falcon has a press release coming out tomorrow - we will see what that holds other than it likely will just be a restatement of the Tamboran/Origin news.

Schlemiel: Its hard to logically argue with an illogical person - much easier to just hit the little green button and he goes away.

PS - Thanks for all you add to this board.

Sebol - I fully agree that it is way to early to try to draw any conclusions about the Origin/Tamboran deal. As you posted, there are just way too many unknowns at this point. My calculus class didn't teach me how to draw too many conclusions on this deal just knowing that there is a $150 million dollar offer on the table. We will know more in time.

BCNatgas: I'm sure he was privy to the drilling schedule - he is just not in control of it. Timing can change for numerous reasons. Here we are only halfway through September - we have drilling pads waiting - I'm not the least bit concerned with the 22 drilling schedule. Even if the rig doesn't show up till October we are still good with the access of the all weather roads.

Right now there are much bigger things to ponder with Origin's announcement of the $150 Tamboran offer. I am somewhat puzzled by how Falcon plays into this - not enough known pieces of the puzzle to see the big picture. The facts are that Sheffield owns substantive shares of both Tamboran and Falcon along with the ORI in the Beetaloo. Sheffield also appears to the one of the driving forces behind funding of the Tamboran deal. This all makes me think the big picture could somehow include Falcon's acreage - to what degree or how I don't know - that's just my thinking - no facts to back that up.

BINGO - This confirms the rumor I got shellacked for mentioning a couple of weeks ago because I wouldn't disclose my sources!

Sheffield is likely the driving force behind Tamboran's move. Interestingly though there are no specific details beyond the $150 million given in this statement. I suspect that Origin leaked this information to possibly get other interested players into a bidding war - I have been hearing there has been a lot of activity goin on at Origin. IMO, there is no way Tamboran can get even close to all of Origin's stake for this amount - big question - just what does $150 million buy them. It will be interesting to see how/when the details come out.

Next question - how does Falcon play out in this deal - does Sheffield offer then a similarly structured deal - which as of now we don't understand! If Sheffield could get the same type of structured deal on Falcon he could roll those interest into one entity before this play really starts to heat up.

Maybe this triggers INPEX, Santos and other interested players to enter into the fray for part of Origin's Beetaloo interest.

BCnatgas: Yes - we shall see. Seems the Falcon stockholders want Philip to address the drilling schedule and I fully understand that. What you and others seem not to understand is that Philip doesn't control the timing of when this rig is moved on site - once again we are at the mercy of the drilling operator Origin Energy. With the two well pads constructed I'm sure they will be utilized this drilling season. Thankfully, with their location right off all weather roads we are not as constrained to seasonal timelines as we have been in the past. Drilling will happen this year - when Origin gets their ducks in a row and gives the go ahead. In the meantime Philip is likely just as frustrated as are his stockholders.

Mojo: Thanks for the heads up on Newtofo - He was about to fool me into thinking the Beetaloo held a lot of potential - and here I thought the exploding commodity prices of gas in Asian markets showed strength in the gas market - who knew this is all just a mirage! Its also disturbing that living in the Permian Basin in the US I have had the wool pulled over my eyes as to the fossil fuel industry.

I look forward to more of your post as your first two post to this board have been so enlightening. Welcome aboard :^)

Poods: Crazy analogy but spot on - I had to laugh at that one. Some want POQ to get out in front of Origin and tell them how to run their drilling program - That's just not going to happen. Going forward, if things play out as I hope, that might change for the better - Falcon will not be fully carried and will have more input into the equation - not necessarily holding the big stick but at least have a seat at the table.. In the meantime Falcon is fully carried and right where it needs to be - much to the chagrin of some on this board.

Oleo: From my brief google search it looks like the Kavango Basin in not even in South Africa so politically speaking it has no relevance to this discussion. As to FOG - as I mentioned, they will be waiting for the political picture to clear up in SA before they do anything in the Karoo. I would be disappointed in Falcon if they went and spend what little cash reserves they have to pursue a project that may not happen for decades. However, POQ did mentioned recently that there was some potential good news coming out of SA - if so maybe the Karoo and a JV partner could be sooner rather than later - we shall see but I'm not holding my breath as I'm already turning blue from the Beetaloo :^)

Yes it is Dolerites - I am mixing up my mountains in Italy with the geologic structures in the Karoo - my bad! Interestingly, my son-in-law last week finished a 2 week bike ride from Germany to Italy that included pictures of the Dolomites in the back ground - these impressively rugged mountains must have stuck in mind LOL!

Oleo: I will be the first to tell you I am not a geologist/geophysicist and have no understanding of the Karoo basin geology. I do recall reading an article that pointed out Falcon's acreage was superior to Shell's and some of the other permits because it does not contain all the dolomite structures which makes Falcon's acreage more receptive to horizontal drilling. Maybe Shell is proposing a drilling program that 'works' with their acreage - Maybe Falcon's acreage lacking dolomites also lacks the resulting turbidites? If Chevron backed out of being Falcon's JV partner after paying them $1million then there are likely bigger issues at hand than geology - Chevron or a similar JV partner would be the one to do the extensive geological studies to pursue the Karoo. Personally, I would much rather Falcon focus its much limited resources on the Beetaloo Basin than trying to prove up something that may or may not ever happen over the next decade or two - Just my opinion.

I did learn some interesting Karoo facts from your post - Thanks!

Oleo/Newtofo: Thanks for the reply Oleo and your response Newtofo. I wasn't aware of the Alexander Cote/Tom Layman discussions - that's great news and another source of direct input with Origin. I'm fairly confident there is limited input by Falcon into Origin's management - we shareholders are just not in a position to be made privy to these internal discussions.

Regarding SA I will add, as some on this board may not be aware, that Philip was actually the chair of a committee working with the SA government trying to implement reasonable regulations that would have allowed E&P companies to move forward with their investments in SA - Philip made several trips to SA to lobby the government on behalf of the international E&P companies. The O&G industry was holding their breath for a positive change of governance in SA's last election - the results of that election made potential investment in SA even less likely and onerous. Having chaired the committee that was trying to improve the investment regulation, I am confident that Philip fully understands the issues as hand. In the mean time he is wisely standing on the sidelines waiting for the political waters to clear. The last I heard, the only companies that felt comfortable investing in SA are the French(?) based companies based of existing treaties that are in place. In the meantime we at Falcon and the rest of the O&G world wait for SA government to come to its senses. As in the Beetaloo, Falcon's SA land holds the best potential of all the shale fields in the Karoo - the current political /economic risk are too unattractive at this point in time.

Oleo: Serious Question - What would you have Falcon do differently at this stage of the game. I agree with you that Falcon, at this point of their full carry by Origin, is the most passive company in the Beetaloo. At the end of your post you state that this is a waiting game by Falcon - I agree with that statement also.. During this waiting period what do you think POQ/Falcon should be doing that the company is falling short on? I'm am curious as to what your expectations are of Falcon during this period of time - what should POQ be trying to accomplish? If Falcon should be more proactive, as you state, what would you have our little company do at this stage?

You seem to be comparing Falcon to the junior E&P companies operating in the Beetaloo - is that a fair comparison?

There is no right or wrong answer here - I have always respected your posts - I am really curious as to your thoughts and expectations of Falcon the last 2-3 years.

TN - Looks like another potential huge discovery in WY - the problem as mentioned in the article is that the prospect is on Federal land and getting the necessary permits to drill and develop can be challenging. The Lost Soldier literally took 14 years to get approval as the Lost Soldier Wild Mustang Federal Unit which consist of about 53 individual leases - I was told its been at least a couple of years since a any Federal Unit was issued - I believe that was in Colorado. To put together a 24,000 acre unit is pretty difficult nowadays.

OK - Back to Australia

Rich - Not familiar with Amplify. The Lost Soldier has been Independent Petroleum's project for many years. Its a pretty unique story on why its never been drilled. Rocky Mountain anticlines can be tricky and unpredictable - about the polar opposite of shale. Come to think of it the only well in the area is about 4 miles south of the spudded well - it was drilled back in the late 70's(?). It initially flowed about 3.6 mmcf/d of gas and 40-50 bbl oil/day from a shale zone but back then shale was not an understood productive formation and fracking didn't exist - not being conventional the well it was plugged.

Newtofo: Appreciate your understanding words and for not agreeing to putting my name down to be Martha Stewart's next cell mate LOL! Some people can't designate the difference between facts and rumors. I don't know why I even bother to bring stuff like this to the board - its a no win situation. Just to make things clearer to Damit - if what I said was a known 'fact' the last place I would post it would be on a public board - I'm not quite that stupid.

I would personally agree with your assessment that no farm down would likely happen until at least the initial flow rates of the next two wells - but then again as you seem to understand -rumors are rumors.

Darnit - Hmmm - Didn't Ultra go from about .15/share to $200+ in 8-9 years? Wish I had experienced some of that 'poor management' back then. Then again, sometimes history repeats itself - I have recently invested in the Lost Soldier Field project in Wyoming - two to three decades of work to put together a 24,000 acre Federal Unit, an AMI of 250,000 acres and to receive all the approvals/permits of the BLM (14 years on the permits alone). After many years the first well was spudded this last weekend. The Lost Soldier could contain 1 billion barrels of oil - the largest potential oil field in recent US history. It's virgin territory never drilled but surrounded by prolific oil production. And who is promoting/putting this deal together - the same guy who put together our Falcon Beetaloo acreage, the SA Karoo Basin acreage along with Ultra Petroleum's acreage - your favorite guy and poor manager. Some of us just never learn - Wish me luck!

Hey Poods - Much todo about nothing - typical board banter - I'm either an insider trader or a rumor mongerer - take your pick! POQ has been out of the office this last week - its just a coincidence that I know that - I'm not really stalking the guy LOL! Actually I haven't talked to Philip in months - didn't figure there was much he could/would tell me anyway that we don't already know. Looks to be the calm before the storm - lots of news coming in the next few months.

The geology took billions of years to develop and is not going anywhere soon. Shale is a pretty predictive formation and with what's known about the Amungee NW-1H and the Tamborini wells, etc. we have a good indication of what our future holds - I'm pretty comfortable with your assessment that the geology is a gift. The commodity market is also looking very positive. The gas is there - the next task is to figure out how best to unlock it from that shale. The potential as you say is not going anywhere. Take Care

Uncle Buck: I really don't care if you think the 'rumor' is legitimate or not - it is in fact a rumor. Over all the many years I've been on this board I have never tried to mislead anyone and I don't intend to start slinging BS now. My information is from a very sensitive source - posting such information on a public board is not going to happen.

I believe we are all in agreement that Origin is looking to farm down it's interest - pretty sure that's going to happen - the question is to whom and when. I have been given a name of the farm-down company and have been told it could happen sooner than later and that there is currently serious negotiations going on at Origin - Does that mean the whisper is 100% correct - certainly not as there are likely several companies in negotiating with Origin . Some board members think Origin is sitting on their thumbs - nothing could be further from the truth. Origin is a utility company whose business model is being stressed with high energy prices - they want to get out of the E&P business as they need to utilize their cashflow elsewhere. If what I'm hearing is right you and others will be pleased. Take this for what its worth - obviously not much to you, Longknife and I'm sure many others - that's OK I'm just sharing what I have heard. If I'm wrong still know that a farm down is still coming which will be very positive for Falcon. Good Luck

FYI -Not a pump and dump - I'm still actively buying Falcon and chasing POODS - I have to admit that's a hard guy to keep up with - Longknife likely not so much so :^)