Member Info for WetWater

Longknife: That is a concern of mine. I don't know how they will develop this acreage. Once would think they would do it block at a time at that would be more economical. If there is 10 wells /block that could be a couple of years drilling once they get going. I would hate for Falcon to sit on the side lines for that long even though surrounding acreage would be proving up. I suspect Falcon will try to participate to come extent in each block - even if it is 50-10%

BtoB: Nice analysis of the current situation and what we have to look forward to moving forward. As to next we know that their is another well to be drilled shortly - if this current Amungee well is as positive as I expect I would hope they would drill another well off of the same pad - saves a lot of time and money. Do they drill there or try to step out a bit and prove up another area - $64K question. I would think at this point they take the more conservative approach and drill the 3H off the same pad.

The next big question is where will the 3rd & 4th wells be drilled and when - I would hope the later part of 2023. IMO, 2023 is going to be an eventful and exciting year.

Newtofo: You are probably right that the Empire well will likely come in under our current well being drilled. I had forgot that their well is a shallower horizon.

Depth makes a difference. I am in a well that is about 16,500 feet TD. - drilled but not yet completed. It hit a gas kick that about blew the well out but thanks to the BOP the well was saved - downhole pressures spiked to 13,000 pounds and they had to quit drilling any deeper into that horizon and call it a day as the pressures were at the limits of the casing. The well is estimated to come in at 60 mmcf/d - its a beast! Its the same similar story to our Beetaloo area - because of wildlife restrictions they had to move the well off the pad by Dec 1st and won't return to complete till May 1st. - Grrr!

newtofo/Beetaloo - You guys might be right, but I'm looking for the Tamboran well with its 5 1/2" casing and American style frack with 24 stages/1000 meters to come in about 7 mmcf/d.

With regard to Empire's well - the well is a 2000 meter lateral - that is why I was hoping for about 10-15 mmcf/d on their flow test.

If you guys are thinking the Tamboran well is only going to flow 3-4 mmcf/d I think you are going to be pleasantly
surprised. I am hearing that Tamboran is very pleased with what they are seeing in the drilling stage and excited about fracking this well with the advanced technology. I don't believe it comes in under the Origin Amungee well normalized rate.

Time will tell - they look to lbegin fracking in the next couple of weeks so we should have an initial flow rate soon.

Empire - Curious to see what type of initial flow rates they get on 1989 meters with a 40 stage frack. Will be somewhat telling though its a good bit from out current wells. Still will be great for the Beetaloo is this comes in with a solid flow rate of 10 - 15 mm/cfd.

Origin789 - Yep, those indigenous people are part of the 600 jobs to be created by the Beetaloo - or so some idiots claimed!! Those trying to talk down and kill the development of this world class national asset had no idea how wrong they were. The Beetaloo will have 600 X 10 and likely more as time goes on. The Beetaloo is going to be a real blessing for the local populations - not only in infrastructure and health but in education and economic opportunity. The blessings of this genie is out of the bottle for the NT.

Mewtofo: "I honestly don't think that B.S. will want to be talking to any of his big player connections in Texas without having some formula to get rid of this pesky opt in or opt out clause -- by taking Falcon out completely??"

For those that don't realize it, B.S. also has that pesky opt in or out clause.

Falcon would likely be the first target as their interest holds most royalty and they are a non-operator. Let Pioneer, Chevron or another major make Falcon a healthy offer and and see what develops. If these next 4 wells come in strong then there is no reason to wait for Falcon to prove up more acreage/reserves - it would just cost a suitor that much more to acquire FO position.

Its interesting how Pioneer (B.S.) has put together their team to help drill these wells. Either Scott Sheffield is watching over his boy or wanting to get a good look at what they might be buying? Pioneer is the biggest producer in the Permian so IMO the Beetaloo would just be a hop/skip and jump if they have any interest in growing internationally. All just a guess on my part.

Newtofo - you are likely correct regarding your thoughts on the big oil companies getting into involved. I see that as the scenario of how Falcon exits the Beetaloo. BS ultimately needs a couple of big players to take out Falcon and Tamboran’s interest. It’s going to take some big players to put even a dent in the Beetaloo’s potential. The big question IMO is just how long before they show up on the scene. Probably before the next 4 wells but if not, we raise funds and keep proving reserves. All is good.

Newtofo: I appreciate your dedication to this board. I'm relieved that our Beetaloo investment of old is finally getting off high center and scheduled to start moving forward at a quicker pace. We are in good hands with Tamboran and the Pioneer team they have put together to oversee these unconventional Beetaloo wells.

Falcon is in the advantageous position utilizing the sole risk clause to participate in wells at a pace/rate that correlates with their financial constraints. Falcon will build reserves over the next couple of years and then as it's stock price allows, raise funds for future development and continued participation in the Beetaloo. I feel more encouraged with this investment than I have felt in quite a while.

Thanks to all of the contributors of this board. Looking forward to 2023 and beyond.

BtoB: "And he’s rightly concluded that if drilling results are quite good there’s far more upside for Falcon shares than TBN." I'm with Tom L.ayman on this one. I'm feeling pretty comfortable with my Falcon shares. That might change in time but the next couple of years look to be good for Falcon.

Beetaloo: Others may correct me on this but I believe Tamboran has completed their financing. With good results on the 2H and 3H wells I would think Falcon should be worth $0.35 - $0.40 per share but as we all know, what Falcon is actually worth does not necessarily equate to its actual stock price. I don't anticipate Falcon needing to raise any further funding until the 4H and 5H wells are completed - with Tamboran's additional $30m carry on those last two wells ($6.75 million on each well) Falcon should have enough funding to meet it's WI obligations. The question after those wells are completed is what's the stock value at that point in time and how much dilution is Falcon willing to undergo to move forward and of course what % participation will they be looking/locked into. The picture looks murky at this point - will future wells (6H, 7H etc.)be in the same participation unit as the 4H & 5H? If that is the case then Falcon needs to base its WI participation in the 4H and 5H wells based on the drilling exposure of the whole participation block if that makes sense.

I for one want Falcon to participate to the greatest extent practical but at the least dilution necessary - its a balance our small company is going to have to figure out over the next few years.

Of course the more success Falcon can have prior to fund raising the better for we stockholders.

Newtofo: : Of course FO could elect to participate at less than their max 22.5%. IMO, FO will likely elect a lower WI percentage on the 4H & 5H wells. It's really dependent on FO's stock price is prior to those two wells and what amount of dilution they want to incur. Nothing wrong with taking a 10% WI on a participation unit until it makes sense to up exposure.

Lots of time/ability to step-up WI exposure going forward - after all there are "ONLY" 718 participation units in the Beetaloo!

Newt: Well said regarding POQ. He has kept us in this game for all these years with no debt. I salute him for keeping this little company alive and well positioned for the next two - three years and I suspect longer if needed. As great as the deal was he penned with Origin I think the sole risk clause recently negotiated may be his sweetest deal yet for Falcon/shareholders. Some complain about his salary but saving $200 M or so/year on his salary pales in the big scheme of things. Giving away 77.5% of the Beetaloo for $380 million in the early stages of exploration/appraisal, "only" left us with 1 million net acres - more than we could possibly ever develop. Without our timely deal with the Aussie company Origin, whom is a very large trusted company by the NT/Feds, we might not have never gotten past the moratorium and Judge Pepper's scientific study and fracking regs relatively unscathed. Falcon is still in the game at this point which is important - looking back and second guessing the last ten years based on today's metrics is not fair approach to judging one's performance - especially in this high risk industry - Staying Alive is the name of this game.

Good for EEG! Shows the economies of scale of drilling several wells off one pad. 34 days to drill the well also predicts the improved economics we will be seeing - I would expect Tamboran will match these numbers when they get to the longer horizontals.

Think how much Tamboran could save drilling one well; skidding the rig and drilling another well then doing the same on fracking. This is the same thing planned for the pilot program - why not try to prove economies of scale and thus commerciality. We have already seen what these wells (Amungee NW 1-H) would likely do. Guess Tamboran has their reasons.

Hey Newtofo - was driving north of Midland last week and saw 6 nice size pump jacks shoulder to shoulder pumping money out of the ground - that’s what we can have in the Beetaloo (minus the pump jacks) once we get busy on these shale wells.

Where’s the second we’ll going to be drilled- inquiring minds want to know. I believe Tamboran is on the hook to drill two wells this year so it’s going to have to be in an approved water bore monitored area. I still would like to see the same pad used for both wells. The current well should be drilled in short order - we’ll just have to see where this rig goes. Wherever - Drill Baby Drill!

We (I) don't know Tamboran's policy but I suspect they will give an initial flow rate after fracking and the well cleans itself up, then likely follow that up with a 90 day rate and then a 180 day rate. The initial is a good indicator but the 90 and 180 will be much more predictive.

I'm still looking for something close to 5 mmcf/d since that appeared to be the normalized rate of the Aumngee well.

Newtofo and All: Just a rumor so just put it in your back pocket. I personally don't see how that would work with Falcon's sole risk clause (which Sheffield also has as I understand it). Tamboran's is the one on the hot seat once they move n H&P drilling rig over to the Beetaloo. They as operator are the ones on the hook to keep that rig busy. I'm pretty sure Falcon will participate in what they can afford whether that be at 22.5% or 10%. Tamboran and/or Sheffield will have to pick up the extra Falcon doesn't take. IMO it would be hard to severely damage Falcon by shorting this stock - with its minimal overhead, Falcon just sits back on the sideline if worst come to worst. In the meantime whoever shorted the stock will be watching the acreage price go up and Falcon's stock price with it - not a good strategical bet for covering at a cheaper price in my opinion.

Like I have mentioned before, I would much rather be sitting in Falcon's seat than Tamboran's - I see a real dilution risk going forward for them if the drilling in the Beetaloo gets as serious as they want to predict. Time will tell.

IMO, the real solution to the Beetaloo is going to be one or two big players such as Chesapeake or Pioneer, etc. to come in and take out Falcon and Tamboran. By the time they arrive on the scene in a couple of years hopefully Falcon price will be sitting in a better position to demand a nice price.

Not losing any sleep over this rumor.

Hmmm: I heard a disturbing rumor today that Bryan Sheffield may not be in Falcon's corner. He plays to win and wants Falcon's 22.5% share of the Beetaloo. Either he or Tamboran takes over Falcon and if Falcon doesn't play ball there will be pain put on Falcon to submit. I take that to mean through extreme shorting or some other undisclosed nefarious means.

Sheffield is reportably unhappy with the sole risk clause in the negotiations along with just flat-out wanting to control all of the Beetaloo. He and POQ may be at odds so it best Falcon and board keep their eyes wide open.

I don't want to upset this wave of positivity for Falcon. Just a rumor I thought worth repeating. Hopefully nothing to it.

Hallelujah!! Thank goodness the Beetaloo development is moving forward again. I'm still confused on the placement of the second well. The site map attached to the Tamboran link still shows the 2H and 3H wells being drilled approximately in the same place. It would be sweet if Tamboran could match the Maverick's drilling at 18 days and then skid the rig and drill the second well but in that same article link they are still saying the second well placement is 'to be determined'.

Anyway, congratulations to all - even those that assured us nothing was going to be drilled this year!

GLA

With Tamboran's aggressive planned drilling program, surely they are not going to move a well to a new locations that requires a new water bore/monitoring.

Betyar: Second your thoughts on the filter button! This guy has had nothing to offer - seems to be another one of our board trolls. Anymore, It makes me smile when I see all the green filtered banners on this board. Somehow I don’t think I’m missing out on anything important or relevant.

Operators don’t build pads and fill holding ponds with water only to watch the water evaporate and the pad grow weeds over the next months - Rest assured, we won’t miss this guy’s opinions or thoughts over the coming months. Don’t know what this guy is smoking - Bye BC.

Good Luck