Member Info for wasarunner

I hope the buyer ISN'T Glen. If it was Glen they would be reducing the eventual offer price by building a bigger position and effectively having less vote against them (and making it harder for another major to counterbid). We know they have a big balance sheet right now - they did make the offer to buy Teck which AFAIK isn't going ahead.

So right now, IMO, for long term benefit to PIs, we don't mind who the buyer is but I hope not Glen.... if it was Glen and they RNS'd a TR1 to that effect then of course you would expect more interest in the stock for other buyers as the writing would be on the wall where this is going....

Added £20k this morning got my full position now a shade over 1m shares. That is definitely my lot - right weight in PF and not expecting any more cash now. Roll on 2025... average wise I think I got slightly under 30p average which feels quite lucky given the recent turbulence - I do feel we are worth a lot more (especially when the permits land). Intend to hold vast majority to production may trim a bit around fully permitted start of mine build. GLA

Was really impressed with him on the recent webinars. Palpable enthusiasm for the project and buzzing to go and build this mine I think. A great hire and hopefully fills the big boots of CEO really well.

I do hope they can build the flatpack mine too. If they can pull that off without delaying or compromising the main project this guy will have earned his bread and more. Exciting times. GLA

I agree with you btw - good things ahead. The market doesn't agree with both of us because it values us at 33p. We both expect the market is wrong, the market is often wrong (which creates the opportunity of course). Whatever it will be will be, I'm happy with my position, it's a decent position (for me) and I'll patiently wait till '25 for 'full value' to materialise as I have on other stocks. If it gets to my target of 60p in H2 I won't sell any (probably) but happy days of course - everyone likes current value to be more than they paid, of course.

Teddy - post wasn't aimed at you so apologies if it came across that way. I appreciate many have been invested here a lot longer than me and also know a lot more about the stock and put a lot of very useful informative stuff on there. There are also on this BB and others plenty who post a lot of posts when they want the share up for whatever reason - doesn't matter.

I don't intend to sell up because the fundamentals are sound. I've invested in other stocks too which slipped timescales but the fundamentals are sound. I've had stocks go sideways for literally years. It isn't easy and it happens. It's just cautious that's natural. I too hope DFS lands as expected to the stated timescales, so the does the ML, and the (first) rerate happens - my guess was you might see roughly a doubling of the SP by/through H2 this year to say 60p area maybe more if the DFS numbers are really good. As I said on a post a few weeks ago then there will be some that take the 'jam' at that point having made some money but of course the real money to be made is when the project is fully de-risked and producing at nameplate because that is when the market gives you full NPV value. That number is in 2025 (by the companies own admission on the call I attended - first production all going well will be Q1 2025) so that's when you'll get the £1/£2/£x valuations. For me that would be the first obvious sell point but I understand why some would sell at 35p, some might sell at 60p etc.

But there is risk, there is always risk. There is no investment I know of where there is reward without risk. I think Ghana is a good jurisdiction (I have another investment located in Ghana - not doing so well but that's not because of the jurisdiction). Which is part of the reason I invested here, the other of course is the economics and finally we have a very solid, seriously BOD which is all important. GLA

Incidentally the reason I think those timeframes is actually jurisdictional more than anything. It isn't just Armadale that wants to hit the deficit on time, it is the Tanzanian govt. Countries which are forward looking are trying to position their 'energy transition' minerals right in the path of the oncoming change. You snooze - you lose - and another country will produce it for you. So it is as much incumbent on the Tanz authorities to grant BKT their go-ahead and for the various state bodies to facilitate the infrastructural improvements if they want the 50%+ benefit the country derives directly and indirectly from these assets.

If they don't, the Chinese (and the Americans, and the South Koreans) will go and mine the resources elsewhere. That's why the Blackrock deal(s) are so important - they pave the way for what the country wants to achieve. And you have to look at the visits by the Americans to Tanzania and the meeting the Tanzanian PM had with Xi as very positive in that context.

I can live with a year later than that (probably many invested here before me and many with shorter term expectations can't) but wouldn't want it to be much longer. Apart from anything else you want to be hitting the deficit early. So very much hoping production in 2025, failing that 2026 latest is my timeframe. If it doesn't happen in that timeframe it was (probably) the wrong investment choice - I'm not sure I have another 23 years in me...

Cash is up (warrant conversions). Investments is up (spent some cash on investments?). Cash at FYE 2022 is roughly 3 years of run rate on cost (assuming no more warrants convert).

Basically - that's the timeframe we need to build the mine or at least secure mine funding. My best guess (which is all it is) is BKT this year, Armadale kick off next year. If we start next year and begin prod in 2025 we still hit the deficit at the right time. And yes we all want it/wanted it a lot sooner. GLA

IMHO it's always best to avoid blatant ramping and blatant de-ramping. Generally it is reasonably straightforward to separate constant, uni-directional good news from reasoned argument as it is the flipside which is incessant doom and gloom.

The truth, as ever, is always inbetween and what motives people have for posting stuff is their call and people shouldn't make decisions based on what people post on BBs. What do I think? I happen to think that despite the BODs best intentions there will be risk, there always remains risk. To pretend otherwise is naive. That said, there is no 5x+ return I know of without risk. If there was, I'd put my money there instead.

Each stage of the journey comes with risk but as we cross each hurdle we de-risk (and in a perfect market, the SP would adjust accordingly). We're in an imperfect and generally risk-off market, so how quickly the re-rate comes is anybody's guess. In principle, each stage of the ML up to final permit should be worth some additional risk-premium. The DFS also. Any concrete plans around the pre-assembled plant that could be used to accelerate the production.

I don't expect us to be directly geared to spod prices (yet) but a strong price environment has to help. LIke others I expect prices to stay relatively high and well above the 'base case' in the PFS and also probably above the DFS numbers eventually. This is all pure upside.

But there is risk. Even if Ghana want the project to go ahead, they will want their slice of the pie - that is very evident from the video link recently posted. Then there is the finance drawdown, built planning, build execution and build execution on time. Cost / time overrun. risk. Finally we have a producing mine, and once we approach nameplate the main risk which remains then is lithium pricing risk. By then the sp of course should be a lot higher.

So in summary loads to be cheerful about but anyone who thinks it is all going to be one way good news is in the wrong game IMO. Oh and by the way people will trade it - as I said on another post, doesn't bother me in the slightest. They provide liquidity in both directions, share is volatile, lithium is volatile, AIM stock is no stamp duty etc.etc. comes with the territory. Anyone holding to production doesn't really care what the shareprice was yesterday and what it will be on Monday, the only thing that affects is their ability to buy more, or the ability of the company to raise equity finance at price x. Other than that for investors its a hold for the jam in 2025+ IMO. GLA

Yep - Ghana stands to benefit massively from the mine go-ahead. I feel very confident it will do so. Thanks for the link.

The video of the barge going upriver with the 100 meter long kiln furnace was great - as an engineer I love to see this stuff. Must confess 'back in the day' I saw JM more as a businessman/financier/geologist, get the deal done, get the FS, get the licence permit, pretend to build a mine then sell to the highest bidder, jobs a good'un. It's a very pleasant surprise that we're building the mine and the management team (seems to) have a strong handle on the engineering side. I know it isn't them delivering it on the ground but you still need to hire the right people and it is a massive operation so to pull it off coming out of Covide with all the supply issues and getting everything lined up - chapeau.

As PIs we tend to focus on the endgame 'when will it be ready' but on reflection what they are doing day to day is pretty amazing! Really looking forward to start of commissioning and seeing pictures of a complete - looking mine.

That's the slight risk with providing firm timescale guidance on something that is intrinsically unpredictable (i.e. not in your control). II's will treat the guidance with the pinch of salt it deserves whereas we PIs (me included) will be checking daily and counting down days left in the quarter and taking the guidance as gospel. Number of times I've seen a quarter mentioned then it lands a quarter or two later! Not saying it will happen here - at least the DFS should be under the companies direct control so would expect that to land by early summer/mid summer latest. Yes good things happening on lithium pricing so exciting times to be invested. The yo yo of the sp is not unexpected there will be plenty trading at the margins but I'm hopeful when the meaningful news lands we will see the kind of institutional sticky buying that moves the SP in the right direction...

>>I know a lot of people on here think that Horizonte's ESG credentials are the ace up the proverbial sleeve. I'm more inclined the believe that the ace up the sleeve is Horizonte not being Chinese owned or controlled.

Suspect the ace up the sleeve is the massive as yet not DFS'd mine with much better grades than Araguaia which can also produce batteries :-). But I do think we are relatively insulated from nickel downside pricing risk - our first quartile production cost and 'locked in' low hydro power cost seems to that. Of course we want a high nickel price so it is easier to expand from FCF....

Delays rarely do you favours - if we'd pulled the gold out of the ground last year we might not have had a 20% dilution at the 3-4p area. But agree with the sentiment - would be good to be pulling it out at these prices. Now where's that operational update...... be Q3 soon.

pumpky - not sure what you mean by 'play ball'?

If Blackrock get taken over (or indeed, if they don't) and one or other company wants to build Blackrock's mine, ship the product to port, using renewable hydro power, and roads to get the stuff out of Mahenge, Blackrock or the other company still have to procure all that infrastructure. They're not going to not develop their mine so Armadale doesn't benefit as a biproduct of the development, if that's what you mean? Once a railway siding and power substation is built, they exist, the owning authorities are not going to make those exclusive to Blackrock/third party?

Also what can Matt Bull say (in an RNS or on an investor call?)
"Yep. We're still waiting for Blackrock."
Because that's literally what it is - you just can't say it out loud, well maybe Ecograf just did exactly that.

Also to people who think this is a long time etc.etc. consider this.

0 graphite mines have been built in Tanzania. 0. (or maybe something small if it is producing 0.6% of the global graphite). So you invested in a commodity / country that isn't going yet. So you understood there was risk, right, at least to timescales if nothing else? It is the risk we take for expecting 5-10x returns? That Blackrock, a company that has spent far more $$$ proving their product, is essentially not at the races either yet must be indicative of the fact that progress isn't easy. So what can you do you can:
1. decide it is not going to happen (nobody but especially Armadale will ever mine graphite in Tanzania). Sell up while there is a sp to sell into
2. decide it is too long for your liking even if it does happen. Pretty much outcome 1. above.
3. believe it will happen (as I happen to believe). Then you wait stay put and remind yourself that once you put money into stock market don't expect it out anytime soon. or
4. stomp up and down because the stock market didn't deliver a return as quickly as you wanted it

It's because there were enough in the 1. and 2. camp above that the shareprice is where it is - Kabunga was clearly one of those who needed his money out sooner, than later. If there were more in the 3. camp then they would see 1.5p bargain basement entry and would be buying. I'm not buying as I have plenty and I have no cash. But if this goes on to build the mine it's easy 5x-10x from this price. You takes your chances....

DanInvestor good points, my view (and I may be 100% wrong) on a few of your items:

b) Cynical view - the management have no intention of developing the asset and want to live of the cash reserves of the company.
>> Unlikely. I can't see Matt Bull putting in £170k of own money to acquire shares, to then pay himself this money back in salary, leaving the shares worthless if the mine doesn't get developed.

3) Which leads to the next question - if a capital raise was ever required for mine development (trust diminished), whether there would be appetite from PI investors to even contribute towards it . Maybe management reap what they sow.
>> Unlikely PIs can fund the capex. We will need £5-10m (equal to current mcap) for equity part assuming a traditional 30% equity - debt ratio. So this bit doesn't concern me overly but we need a 'cornerstone' investor type to come in at a higher sp than the current sp so the shareprice being higher than it is now is essential.

4) Yep the counter argument is that management have relatively large share holdings in the company - but has goodwill of PIs now been burnt?
>> Possibly - but if / when Blackrock get their deal, and start building the mine, and management start making noises about building ours, it will be amazing how quickly 'goodwill' will return. Greed is a much more powerful motivator than fear. Blackrock will have mcap £100-200m when they are building their mine so ours shouldn't stay £10m mcap for long IMO.

Just my 2 pence. I absolutely think we are waiting for Blackrock (and then some) so bottom draw for me for the time being. The clock officially starts ticking when Blackrock kick off IMO.

Yes also don't forget Glencore have 10 years offtake on Araguaia 1. 28 years mine life 2 (or 3x) Araguaia lines that's 46 or 74 line-years of production they don't have offtake on -> which is the majority of lifetime production, so it will be of interest to them to acquire the mine I think (plus Vermelho of course)...

TDT I'm sure Orion and La Mancha are working to a plan % return hence the bidder will need to offer something they are agreeable to - no doubt about that. That's why I don't think it will be lowball but I still think it will happen and ultimately Orion and La Mancha will have their price. Either scenario works fine for me and I don't mind holding on if we are independent (I'm guessing dividends may happen in that scenario down the line) - just feel it is less likely. I would like north of £3 in a sale, perhaps £4 would be nice at the end of 2024, but if we get more, or stay independent for longer I won't complain....in a strong nickel market there is no doubt the tonnage we can produce will provide a very nice earner. Lets see what happens! First things first we need A1 build complete and A2 DFS to see how much inflation is hitting us....